The AFC’s best rivalry is back with the Cincinnati Bengals hoping to turn Arrowhead into Burrowhead again when they play the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday afternoon.
However, with Cincinnati’s rough start and Joe Burrow’s wrist issues, I’m expecting more problems for the Orange & Black in my Bengals vs. Chiefs props and NFL picks.
Don't miss our full Bengals vs. Chiefs predictions!
Bengals vs Chiefs props
- Joe Burrow Under 235.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Isiah Pacheco Over 66.5 rushing yards (-115 at BetMGM)
- Rashee Rice Over 67.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Bengals vs Chiefs props
Prop bet #1: Joe Burrow Under 235.5 passing yards
Joe Burrow’s ability to pick up a water bottle was one of the biggest questions coming out of Week 1. But whether he can or not, it’s pretty obvious his wrist isn’t right.
He could be seen flexing it throughout the Cincinnati Bengals’ shocking loss to the Patriots, and when he was on the field, he didn’t look anywhere near the “Joe Brrr” who’s helped turn the Bengals into a premier AFC team.
Now he has to take on the best team in the league, and a defensive coordinator in Steve Spagnuolo who has seemingly figured out how to stop him.
The Kansas City Chiefs have beaten Cincinnati in each of the last two matchups, both at Arrowhead. And while Burrow only played in one of those games, he was far from his Pro Bowl self.
He threw two interceptions, took five sacks, and averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt. And this is a Chiefs defense that was third in dropback EPA last season.
Given Burrow only threw for 164 yards on 5.6 yards per attempt last week while ranking 20th in EPA per play among QBs, it’s fair to assume the Bengals may dial it back in Week 2, especially against a Kansas City defense that’s 30th in EPA per rush.
Prop bet #2: Isiah Pacheco Over 66.5 rushing yards
It’s pretty clear after Week 1 that the Bengals’ run defense needs to be better. The Patriots ran for 170 yards with starting running back Rhamondre Stevenson accounting for 120 of them.
That was with New England’s pieced-together offensive line and a QB in Jacoby Brissett that strikes fear into no defense. So against Patrick Mahomes and a Kansas City offensive line that has one of the top interiors, Lou Anarumo’s unit could be in for a rough outing against Isiah Pacheco.
While Pacheco only had 45 yards in Week 1 against the Ravens, he took the lion’s share of the carries – 15 out of the 17 that went to running backs. With a similar workload against the Bengals, he should be capable of reaching 67+ rushing yards.
He hit that number in six of the Chiefs’ final nine games last season (including the playoffs). One of those games was a 25-17 win over Cincinnati where he finished with 130 yards on the ground on just 18 carries.
Cincinnati is 20th in EPA per rush on defense after Week 1 and was 25th last season, so improvements in Week 2 aren’t expected.
Stevenson led the league in rushing yards after contact (118) and missed tackles forced (10) in Week 1 against this unit.
Prop bet #3: Rashee Rice Over 67.5 receiving yards
One of the biggest takeaways from Week 1 about Andy Reid’s team is that Rashee Rice appears to be the go-to wide receiver.
With Hollywood Brown now potentially out for the year, it’s hard to imagine any other player taking the WR1 role from Rice. He may even overtake Travis Kelce as the top dog in the pecking order.
Against Baltimore’s loaded defense in Week 1, Rice quietly went for 103 yards on seven receptions by predominantly running slants and crossers. It looks like Michael Thomas’ “Slant Boy” moniker may end up being inherited by Rice.
And while Cincinnati’s defense is better at stopping the pass than the run, it was still just 24th in EPA per dropback last season and 17th this season.
Rice should be able to tee off on this secondary. His 4.29 yards per route run in Week 1 rank fourth in the NFL and his 10.4 yards after catch per reception rank 20th, per PFF.
The last time these two teams played, Rice finished with 127 yards on just five receptions. He and Mahomes are poised to take advantage and hit enough big plays for this Over to hit.
New Users
Up to $1,500 in bonus bet insurance at BetMGM
Make your football plays at BetMGM, which is offering new users up to $1,500 in bonus bets (if your first bet doesn't win)!
Sign up now to join the King of Sportsbooks, or learn more with our comprehensive BetMGM sportsbook review.
Eligible U.S. locations only
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
