Sunday Night Football features a non-conference clash when the Cincinnati Bengals travel to East Rutherford to face the New York Giants in Week 6.
Cincy sits at 1-4, and my early Bengals vs. Giants predictions expect New York to keep its foot on the visitor's throat. Find out more in my NFL picks for this October 13 tilt.
Bengals vs Giants predictions
Early spread lean
New York Giants +3.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Desperation has set in for the Cincinnati Bengals, but bettors shouldn't factor it into their handicap of Sunday Night Football.
The Bengals have been here before — rallying from slow starts to make a mid-season push — but the half-point hook on the field goal seems unwarranted for a team 0-2 straight up as faves of -7.5.
The market is mispricing Cincinnati once again, especially when you consider how good the New York Giants have looked in their recent efforts. Much like Cincy, New York stumbled out of the blocks but has performed well the past three games with solid showings on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Daniel Jones has been the biggest catalyst for this about face. He ranked among the worst QBs in the opening two outings. But from Week 3 to Week 5, “Danny Dimes” sits among the elite in many advanced passing metrics.
He was able to chew up Seattle last Sunday and did so without his top target — rookie WR Malik Nabers. With Nabers likely to return from concussion in Week 6, the Bengals will face the brunt of a G-Men passing attack ranked No. 9 in EPA per dropback over the past three games.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 48.5 (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
As mentioned, the Giants offense is picking up steam and should be at full strength when the Bengals come calling in Week 6. On top of Nabers’ return, New York is hoping RB Devin Singletary is healthy (groin) and ready to go after being limited in practice and sitting out Sunday’s win.
Cincinnati’s defense isn’t great and is coming off an overtime loss to Baltimore in which it allowed 38 points in regulation and more than 500 yards on the day. The Bengals give up the second most points per game and rank 31st in EPA per play and dead last in success rate allowed per play.
Countering that shaky stop unit is a Bengals' offense coming together, at least in the passing game. Cincinnati is No. 2 in EPA per dropback, with Joe Burrow and his WRs finding their stride, especially with Tee Higgins back in action. That’s powered this scoring attack to outputs of 33, 34, and 38 points in the past three games — all of which went Over the total.
If you read my weekly “Bet Now, Bet Later” feature on Sunday nights, you know this game was my “Bet Now” total for Week 6 as I snapped up Over 47.5 quickly. While most books are at 48.5 O/U, there are some shops as high as 49.5 points for SNF.
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Bengals vs Giants live odds
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