Let’s be honest. Most Thursday Night Football games are duds.
Well, not in Week 10.
The Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals in the mid-week matchup. The last time these AFC North foes crossed paths, they nearly put up a collective 1,000 yards of offense and scored 76 points in regulation.
Thursday’s tall total projects another high-scoring finish, which means the anytime touchdown markets have a lot of live options to find the end zone. There are currently six players priced below 2/1 odds to score a TD tonight.
I measure up these classic rivals and give my best Bengals vs. Ravens predictions and NFL picks for the “touchdown anytime” odds on November 7.
Bengals anytime touchdown pick
Mike Gesicki anytime touchdown
+240 at FanDuel
It doesn’t look like the Cincinnati Bengals will have WR2 Tee Higgins healthy for Thursday Night Football, which means there are targets up for grabs. Those looks could find their way to tight end Mike Gesicki.
Gesicki made the most of his promoted role in the offense in Week 9, bringing in five of six targets for 100 yards and two touchdowns in the win over the Las Vegas Raiders. The week before that, the Cincy TE was targeted eight times for seven receptions and 73 yards in the loss to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Gesicki caught two of the balls thrown his way in the Week 5 meeting with Baltimore, finishing with 31 yards. However, Higgins was healthy in that matchup and drew a team-high 14 targets from QB Joe Burrow.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has been beaten up tight ends this season, coming into Week 10 allowing the fourth-most targets and fifth-most receptions to the position, with rival TEs posting the third-most yardage allowed versus the Ravens.
The Baltimore defense runs a much higher rate of man-to-man coverage and that is a scheme in which Gesicki has thrived against. He’s a Top 20 tight end versus man, according to grading at PFF, seeing a significant slide in effectiveness from man to zone coverages.
Player projections for Week 10 have Gesicki among the top TEs in terms of touchdown forecasts, ranging between 0.3 and 0.4 TDs on TNF. My number sits at 0.33 touchdowns, which should have his “touchdown anytime” odds around +200. You can grab +230 and higher if you shop around.
Ravens anytime touchdown pick
Mark Andrews anytime touchdown
+160 at FanDuel
When it comes to red zone threats, Ravens running back Derrick Henry takes the cake… and smashes that cake in a celebratory spike after carrying it across the goal line.
But behind Henry, veteran tight end Mark Andrews is Baltimore’s best target inside the 20-yard line. Andrews has had an up-and-down year but has found his old form in recent weeks, with four touchdowns in his last four games.
Andrews will be very busy on Thursday with fellow TE Isaiah Likely out due to injury.
Andrews has been sharing snap counts with Likely in single TE sets, which has impacted his involvement, including his snaps in the red zone. On the year, Andrews has been targeted only seven times inside the opponents’ 20-yard line, catching six of those passes – four of which have been for touchdowns.
He had four catches on five targets for 55 yards against the Bengals in Week 5, with Likely drawing three passes his way. Cincinnati runs a higher rate of man-to-man coverage than most defenses, and Andrews enters Week 10 ranked No. 10 among TEs versus man coverage at PFF.
Andrews has had success against Lou Anarumo’s defense in past season and the current Cincy stop unit has struggled not only to defend the pass, but to slow down rival tight ends. The Bengals have allowed the seventh most targets, receptions and total yards to the position along with five touchdowns from TEs in 2024.
Week 10 forecasts have Andrews pegged between 0.3 and 0.5 projected touchdowns on TNF, with my number at 0.37. But with Likely out, a massive Over/Under total, and a very advantageous matchup versus Cincinnati, I can see why some models have this as high as 0.5 TDs.
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