The Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens both suffered tough losses last week, making tonight's Week 11 odds Thursday Night Football meeting incredibly important in the AFC North landscape.
Following a big game in Week 9 and a great first half vs. the Browns last week, rookie running back Keaton Mitchell’s role is expanding and john Harbaugh has been talking about getting him the ball more on the short week.
But how exactly should bettors approach this situation and TNF odds? I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Bengals vs. Ravens on November 16.
Bengals vs Ravens odds
Bengals vs Ravens predictions
Rookie Baltimore Ravens running back Keaton Mitchell had 138 rushing yards vs. a very good Seattle defense in Week 9 and followed that up with a 64-total-yard outing last week vs. the Browns but his usage late was head-scratching.
Mitchell had just four snaps and one touch in the second half last week as Baltimore was outscored 24-14 in the final 30 minutes in an epic collapse.
Following the loss, John Harbaugh told the media Monday that his lack of touches was due to being a younger back. Volume he regrets in hindsight. He also stated that the rookie will be more involved Thursday night, which is great news for his Over markets.
John Harbaugh on Keaton Mitchell only getting 4 snaps and 1 touch in the second half says “Looking back on it would we have wanted him out there more? Yea.” Added that it had to do with being a young guy and working him in but he’ll be more involved this week. #RavensFlock
— Brian Wacker (@brianwacker1) November 13, 2023
Gus Edwards’ rushing total week-to-week is a slight increase from 43.5 to 45.5 this week while Keaton closed with a rushing total of 21.5 and a receiving total of 5.5 yards vs. a tougher rush defense last week.
The Ravens could also lean on the run even more than their 51% run rate as Lamar Jackson and the passing game have hit a wall as the QB hasn’t thrown for multiple TDs in five of his last six games.
Justice Hill’s role could be reduced at the expense of Mitchell, while Edwards had just 22 yards on 11 carries last week. If the Ravens want to get over that tough Week 10 loss, a shake-up on the short week with an explosive rookie running back could be a great move.
Considering Harbaugh is on the record about increasing his role, I’m happy playing the Over on his rushing yards up to 28.5 and the Over on his receiving yards at 9.5 or shorter. With none of these markets open early in the week, I’m still OK with taking a flyer on his anytime TD at +240, which is getting shorter.
This is still a great price and is as short as +190 at other books. Edwards’ price has swung from +145 to +100, which is too big of a swing for a back that could see 10 or fewer carries.
Edwards is the man inside the 20s and Jackson is a vulture too, but Mitchell is a threat to score outside of the 20s and has done so already in back-to-back games with just 15 touches. It’s a half unit for the TD as I’ll be looking to unload on his other markets when they open.
My best bet: Keaton Mitchell anytime touchdown (+240 at FanDuel) 30% live boost available
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Bengals vs Ravens same-game parlay
Keaton Mitchell anytime touchdown
Odell Beckham Jr. Under 28.5 receiving yards
Lamar Jackson Over 42.5 rushing yards
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Keaton is going to get an upgrade in usage but the Ravens will continue to lean on the run with all the bodies. Odell Beckham Jr. ran just nine routes last week so his one 40-yard reception is a little deceiving. His output in Week 9 might have had to do with his B-Day as well.
Jackson has been struggling to pass the ball and has over 100 yards on the ground over the last two weeks. He also had 12 carries for 54 yards vs. this Cincinnati Bengals defense in Week 2.
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Bengals vs Ravens spread and Over/Under analysis
Both teams are coming off tough losses but it was the Bengals who were outplayed last week vs. Houston where the Texans gained 544 yards on offense and outgained the Cincinnati offense in both yards per pass and rush.
The Bengals also lost their best defensive player in Trey Hendrickson and the defensive lineman seems to be more doubtful than probable as of Tuesday, but practice will tell. The spread is hinging on some of these injuries.
If Hendrickson goes and the offense can get Tee Higgins back after he sat out last week, this current Baltimore -3.5 spread could move to a flat 3. For reference, the Ravens were -3 on the look-ahead.
The Hendrickson injury is already on top of DE Sam Hubbard’s ankle injury as the defender missed last week. That is a lot of talent that could be out of the Bengals’ D-line vs. the run-heaviest team in football.
Higgins has been reported as doubtful while Ja’Marr Chase entered Week 10 with a back injury, though it doesn't appear serious, per reports. The Bengals weren't entirely healthy on offense last week and the short week isn't ideal in Week 11.
Baltimore is the healthier team entering the meeting but does have some key injuries bettors should be watching. Harbaugh told the media on Monday that corner Marlon Humphrey and tackle Ronnie Stanley, who both exited on Sunday, are day-to-day but not out long-term. They both have a chance to suit up and would help this spread close at -3.5 or even -4.
This total was sitting at 44 as of Monday but took a lot of Over money and moved as high as 46 by Tuesday morning. Both teams totaled at least 57 combined points last week as the Bengals gave up 544 yards to the Texans and Baltimore allowed 75 plays and a 34:50/25:45 time-of-posession loss to Deshaun Watson and the Browns.
If Higgins is a go, Chase appears back to full health, and both teams lose some key defensive pieces (Hubbard, Hendrickson, and Humphrey), there might be a little more movement to the Over as 47 is the key number and there is always some wiggle room between 44 and 47.
With the injuries and a short week, there is always a good chance of decent movement and with this number at 3 and 46, bettors should pay close attention to the Higgens, Hendrickson, Stanley, and Humphries injuries as they will dictate where these numbers close. The weather looks perfect for November and shouldn’t affect the play, either.
Bengals vs Ravens betting trend to know
The Baltimore Ravens have scored first in 13 of their last 20 games (+3.95 Units / 13% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Ravens.
Bengals vs Ravens game info
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Thursday, November 16, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Amazon Prime |
| Opening odds: | Ravens -4, O/U 44.5 |
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