Bengals vs Ravens Sunday Night Football Picks and Predictions: Chase Rebounds in Week 5

The AFC North shines in the primetime lights when the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football.

These divisional rivals enter Week 5 with identical 2-2 records but both could easily be 4-0 considering how their losses came about. The Bengals fell short of comebacks against Pittsburgh and Dallas but won their last two outings while the Ravens blew big leads to Miami and Buffalo in crushing losses.

This matchup will be a pivotal point in the divisional race, and I size up the spread and total for Sunday Night Football as well as give my best NFL picks and predictions for Bengals at Ravens on October 9.

Bengals vs Ravens best odds

Bengals vs Ravens picks and predictions

You can’t have your cake and eat it too. That’s something Bengals star WR Ja’Marr Chase is learning through four weeks of the 2022 season.

After emerging as one of the top receiving threats in the NFL, Chase is getting treated as such. Opponents are throwing constant double teams at the second-year wideout from LSU, and it’s impacting his output. 

Chase has caught just 25 of 41 balls thrown his way for a total of 293 yards entering Week 5. He put up the bulk of those gains with 129 yards in Week 1, but he’s gone for 54, 29, and 81 yards the past three games as his catches and targets dwindle.

Chase voiced his frustrations with that extra attention on Wednesday, telling the media the double coverage is a compliment but that, "I'm not happy getting double-teamed. I want the ball." 

His coach Zac Taylor recognizes his struggles and says the offense needs to find creative ways to get Chase more involved. With a mini-bye giving Taylor & Co. extra prep time to find ways to ignite Chase, the table is set for a busy night in Baltimore. 

Despite some big-name studs in the secondary, the Ravens pass defense has been bad against No. 1 receivers. The Ravens enter Week 5 ranked 20th in defensive DVOA versus WR1s while allowing an average of 106.6 yards on 9.6 targets per game to those top wideouts.

Chase had big days against Baltimore last year, drawing 10 targets in both matchups for a total of 15 catches and 326 yards. Those came against a depleted Ravens defense and former defensive coordinator Wink Martindale, who relied almost exclusively on man-to-man coverage. New DC Mike Macdonald is mixing in more zone, which tempers the bigger gains from Chase but could open things up underneath for last year's Offensive Rookie of the Year.

So far in 2022, Cincinnati has used their top threat more in shallow passing routes as defenses are looking to help with extra coverage over the top. Chase has moved around quite a bit as well, playing 54 snaps in the slot and also coming out of the backfield on occasion.

With fellow WRs Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd hitting home run plays in the opening four games of the season, the Ravens have to concern themselves with those shots over the top after allowing the most air yards in the NFL (743). That leaves gaps in coverage in the short-to-intermediate passing game for Chase.

His receptions prop totals have bounced between 5.5 and 6.5 to start 2022 but after a four-catch day versus Miami last Thursday, the Week 5 total is on the lower end at 5.5 (Over -130). I like Chase to have a bigger role in the passing attack, given the extra time to fine-tune the offense and Taylor’s focus on finding ways to put the ball in his best weapon's hands.

My best bet: Ja’Marr Chase Over 5.5 receptions (-130)

Bengals vs Ravens spread analysis

The look-ahead line for this AFC North clash was set at Baltimore -2.5 in the summer, but oddsmakers would go higher for the official Week 5 point spread.

After Cincinnati’s 0-2 start and then wins over the Jets and depleted Dolphins, bookies opened the spread at Baltimore -3.5 last Sunday night. The Ravens have split wins and losses through four weeks, but their two losses came against quality clubs in games where Baltimore held a healthy lead — blowing cushions of 28-7 and 20-3.

Early money snatched up the half-point hook on Cincy and slimmed this spread to -3, where it sat at most books for the majority of the week. The Bengals have looked more like the team that went to the Super Bowl the past two weeks, with solid two-way football.

However, Ravens money showed up Thursday and bumped this back to Baltimore -3.5 at a number of operators. There are still some Ravens -3 spreads available as of Friday morning.

According to BetMGM books, 56% of bets and 61% of handle is backing the home team Sunday night. Covers Consensus is showing a similar split, with 55% of picks laying the points with Baltimore.

Bengals vs Ravens Over/Under analysis

The look-ahead total set in the summer had this Over/Under at 46.5 points.

The Ravens and Bengals went Over in both 2021 matchups, thanks more to twin 41-point efforts from Cincinnati. The one game in which Baltimore QB Lamar Jackson played, the Over/Under closed at 46 points with the Bengals winning 41-17 on Oct. 24.

The official Week 5 total opened as high as 48 points on Sunday night and jumped to 48.5 before trimming to 47.5 points. As of Friday, this number ranges from 47.5 to 48.5 points across the industry.

The Ravens defense has struggled under new defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, sitting 25th in EPA allowed per play and allowing 6.2 yards per play to its first four foes. Baltimore is 2-2 Over/Under so far on the season.

Cincinnati’s stop unit has been the backbone of the Bengals so far, ranked out No. 7 in EPA and giving up only 5.1 yards per play. That’s helped Under backers cash in all four of Cincy’s games this season.

BetMGM books are reporting 55% of bets on the Over but they’ve taken 63% of money on the Under as of Friday morning. 

Bengals vs Ravens betting trend to know

The Bengals have been one of the better Under bets when playing on the road since head coach Zac Taylor took over in 2019. Cincinnati is a stellar 8-20 Over/Under in away games in that span, including a 2-9 O/U mark away from Paycor Stadium in 2021 (with Under in Super Bowl LVI hitting). The Bengals are 0-2 O/U on the road this season. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Ravens.

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