Bengals vs Steelers Prop Bets: Warren Shines in AFC North Clash

Prop bet #1: Running Wild

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been marred in controversy all season due to poor quarterback play and the receiver corps' lack of effort. It all came to a head this past week when receiver George Pickens wasn’t giving his best to block for Jaylen Warren on what should have been a touchdown.

Warren, a second-year undrafted runner out of Oklahoma State, is known for being one of the hardest workers on the team and a player who’s willing to do whatever it takes to win. He’s been fined almost as much money this season as he makes due to his physical playing style.

In a rainy game against an AFC North rival, Warren’s physicality and toughness will be leaned on in the run game, especially with Mason Rudolph starting. The Cincinnati Bengals have struggled on defense this season, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s unit is allowing 128.3 rushing yards per game, fifth most in the league. It also ranks 28th in EPA per play and 26th in EPA per rush.

While Pittsburgh’s offense has been stagnant for much of this season — it’s 26th in EPA per play — the black and gold were able to run for 153 yards in a 16-10 win against the Bengals back in Week 12.

It hasn’t been all roses in the three games after that victory — losses to Arizona, New England, and Indianapolis — and new play-caller Mike Sullivan has come under fire, but Warren hasn’t been short on touches.

He’s still splitting time with former first-round pick Najee Harris, who technically remains the starter, however, it’s been more of a timeshare in recent weeks with Warren being the more impactful back.

On the season, Warren has rushed for 652 yards while averaging a full yard and half per carry more than Harris (5.5 to Harris’ 4.0). The former Snow College and Utah State star is averaging 46.6 rushing yards per game and has had at least 45 on the ground in five of 14 games. 

Since Week 9, Warren is also averaging 10.5 carries per game for 68.1 rushing yards.

Jaylen Warren prop: Over 44.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Cincy's Swiss Army Knife

Most years when Mike Tomlin’s got poor quarterback play, the Steelers' defense picks up the slack, but things haven’t gone so smoothly this season, despite T.J. Watt having yet another All-Pro season.

Pittsburgh has been respectable on defense, sitting 12th in EPA per play, 11th in EPA per dropback, and 18th in EPA per rush. However, when the offense went into the tank after Kenny Pickett’s injury, the defense began to feel the impact.

Since Week 13, the Steelers are 23rd in EPA per play on defense, 23rd in EPA per dropback, and 20th in EPA per rush. Given Jake Browning will be without Ja’Marr Chase in messy weather conditions, Taylor and offensive coordinator Brian Callahan are poised to feed their one-two running back punch of Joe Mixon and rookie Chase Brown.

Brown, a fifth-round pick out of Illinois, has added electricity to Cincinnati’s backfield with his contact balance and 4.43 speed. The Canadian saw his first extended playing time in Week 13 against the Jaguars and has been a consistent weapon in the offense ever since.

In his last three games, Brown has totaled 217 yards from scrimmage on 30 touches and is averaging eight carries for 36.3 rushing yards and two receptions for 36 receiving yards per game over that stretch.

His fresh legs and ability as a pass catcher against this struggling Steelers defense set him up well to go over 49.5 yards from scrimmage for the fourth straight game.

Chase Brown prop: Over 49.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Trey Day

Beyond the poor quarterback play and drama around the receivers in Pittsburgh, the offensive line has been killing the Steelers' offense over the last few games. In the black and gold’s last five games, the big boys up front have given up 11 sacks, but that number doesn’t do justice to the pressure the unit has allowed.

Against the Colts last week, it bottomed out by allowing four sacks, including 1.5 each to edge rushers Dayo Odeyingbo and Samson Ebukam. Both left tackle Dan Moore and right tackle Broderick Jones were worked throughout the game and that’s not going to inspire much confidence with one of the league’s best set to tee off on them Saturday.

The last time the Bengals played the Steelers, Trey Hendrickson came away with a sack to give him 10.5 on the season at the time. Since then, the former third-round pick out of FAU has added 4.5 more to his collection to break his own Bengals record for sacks in a season.

Hendrickson has 15 sacks in 14 games and has racked up at least one sack in 10 games this season. Since 2020, Hendrickson has 50.5 sacks in 60 games and now faces the perfect matchup this week to keep adding to his collection.

Trey Henrickson prop: To record a sack (-105 at bet365)