Week 11 is upon us, and we have a terrific AFC North battle when the 5-4 Cincinnati Bengals meet the 3-6 Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field.
Cincinnati is off a bye week and doubled up Carolina 42-21 in Week 9, while Pittsburgh defeated New Orleans 20-10.
Who will win this AFC North matchup? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for this Week 11 showdown between the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, November 20.
Bengals vs Steelers best odds
Bengals vs Steelers picks and predictions
The Pittsburgh Steelers allow two passing TDs per contest, and my best bet is for Cincinnati Bengals WR Tee Higgins to exceed 0.5 TD receptions.
Ja’Marr Chase has been ruled out for this contest, and with Higgins coming off of a bye week, he has a terrific opportunity to find the end zone against a Pittsburgh secondary that leaks in the red zone.
Higgins’ 58 targets are second on the team, along with his 41 receptions, and the Bengals wideout has four TD receptions this season and two over his last three matchups. He’s averaging 7.5 targets per game over his last four, with 21 receptions during that four-game span.
Bengals QB Joe Burrow has thrown for 2585 yards with 18 TD passes alongside six interceptions. Over his past five, the former Heisman Trophy winner has slung it for 1436 yards with 10 scoring strikes and two picks.
Pittsburgh has suffered some injuries to its defensive backfield: Safety Minka Fitzpatrick missed last week with appendicitis and should be good to go, but CB Ahkello Witherspoon missed last week with a hamstring, and it won’t be fun covering Higgins at less than 100%.
Finally, the Steelers allow the most TDs to wide receivers per game, Burrow has been hot, and Higgins is a good bet to catch a TD pass against Pittsburgh in this matchup.
My best bet: Tee Higgins Over 0.5 TD receptions (+120)
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Bengals vs Steelers spread analysis
Cincinnati is a 4-point favorite, and I’m leaning toward the Bengals to cover the spread.
The Bengals are 3-2 over their last five and coming off a strong 42-21 home win over Carolina. Chase missed that one but Joe Mixon found the end zone five times. Mixon has a challenge ahead of him against one of the best rushing defenses in the game. Pittsburgh allows a sixth-best 108 rushing yards and less than one rushing TD per game.
Burrow has to be the one to make things happen Sunday, and Cincy has a good passing attack without Chase. Higgins and Tyler Boyd have combined for 1,007 receiving yards with seven TDs and 15 plays of over 20 yards. The Steelers have had injuries to deal with, and allow the third-most passing yards and two TD receptions per game.
The Bengals signal-caller has suffered through 30 sacks, and he’s up against a Pittsburgh defense with 17 sacks on the season and T.J. Watt back in the lineup.
The Steelers offense has been a messy situation. Rookie Kenny Pickett is starting, and RB Najee Harris has underwhelmed, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, but is coming off his best game of the season. The Bengals have a better-than-average rushing defense, and Harris will have a tough time penetrating it.
Pickett is the Steelers' top draft choice and has thrown for 1,011 yards with a pair of scoring strikes against eight interceptions. He’s also been sacked a dozen times over the last two games and faces a Bengals defense averaging 1.5 sacks per game with eight picks. Harris is the only receiver with two TD receptions, wideout Diontae Johnson hasn’t caught a TD pass yet, but rookie WR George Pickens is averaging 10.7 yards per catch.
Cincinnati is 6-3 ATS this season and 3-2 ATS as the away team. Pittsburgh is 4-4-1 ATS and 2-1-1 ATS at Heinz Field.
Since 2007, the Steelers are 16-3-3 ATS as the home underdog and 6-1-3 ATS as the underdog without Ben Roethlisberger. This is a great stat, but Cincinnati has too much for Pickett and Pittsburgh and should cover the spread.
Bengals vs Steelers Over/Under analysis
The total is 41 points, and I am leaning toward playing the Under for this matchup.
Pittsburgh scored 23 points in Week 1 against Cincy and hasn’t scored that many points in any game since its 23-20 victory in Cincinnati. Defensively, the Steelers allow 23 points per game while allowing just 17 at Heinz Field.
Cincinnati averages 25.3 points per contest and has scored 25 or more in five of its nine contests, but tallies 20.8 points per game as the away team. It allows 20.6 points per contest and 21.8 as the away team.
The Over is 3-5-1 through the Bengals' nine contests and 1-1-3 as the away team. The Over is 3-6 through Pittsburgh’s first nine and 1-3-0 ATS at Heinz Field.
Bengals vs Steelers betting trend to know
These teams play each other close, and the Over is 3-6-1 over their past 10 meetings. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Steelers.
Bengals vs Steelers game info
| Location: | Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, November 20, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 4:25 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Steelers +4.5, 43.5 O/U |
Bengals vs Steelers latest injuries
Bengals vs Steelers weather
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