Two AFC North rivals come into Week 3 on the heels of convincing Week 2 losses as the Cincinnati Bengals travel to Heinz Field to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The Steelers come into their first divisional game of the season decimated with multiple injuries to key players, including QB Ben Roethlisberger and star LB T.J. Watt. Pittsburgh’s banged-up defense could be a blessing for Bengals QB Joe Burrow, who has been sacked nine times through weeks. Neither offense impressed last week and the NFL betting odds reflect that, while the Steelers slim 3-point home favorites.
Here are our best free NFL picks and predictions for Bengals vs. Steelers on Sunday, September 26.
Bengals vs Steelers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Steelers were listed as seven-point favorites on the lookahead but, after Sunday’s defeat, opened unanimously at -4.5. The Big Ben injury news has moved the line down to -3, although a couple books are still offering -3.5 at the time of writing. This AFC North matchup is one of a handful of Week 3 games with a total below 47, opening at 45.5 and immediately moving to 44.5 and now sitting at 43.5. Be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets, and also view the full line movement for this game. Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Bengals vs Steelers picks
Picks made on 9/22/2021 at 9:53 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bengals vs Steelers game info
• Location: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
• Date: Sunday, September 26, 2021
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Bengals at Steelers betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key injuries
Bengals: Xavier Su’A-Filo OL (Out), Trae Waynes, CB (Out), Ricardo Allen S (Out), Tee Higgins WR (Out).
Steelers: T.J. Watt LB (Out), Diontae Johnson WR (Out), Tyson Alualu DE (Out), Carlos Davis DL (Out), Stephon Tuitt DE (Out), Alex Highsmith LB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh. Find more NFL betting trends for Bengals vs. Steelers.
Bengals vs Steelers predictions
Bengals +3.5 (-120)
Picking a side in Sunday’s matchup won't be an easy decision after how bad both clubs looked in their Week 2 defeats.
The Bengals lost — and failed to cover — against the Bears in a game that saw Joe Burrow take his ninth sack of the season and throw three interceptions on three consecutive passes — one being a pick-six. The offense also managed just three points through the game’s first three quarters.
However, if it weren't for the four total turnovers, Cincy could have covered despite averaging just 4.6 yards per play, as the Cincy defense held the Bears to just 206 total yards on 61 plays and the score was just 7-3 Chicago heading into the fourth quarter.
The real problem with trusting the Bengals starts at the offensive line, which the team tried to address in the offseason with the addition of Xavier Su’A-Filo at right guard. The offensive lineman is questionable coming into Sunday's match and would be replaced by second-round rookie Jackson Carman, who has yet to play a snap in the NFL and will have to deal with the Steelers pass rush. If Burrow can’t find time, it doesn’t matter how good his receiving corp is.
To add another conditional, if Pittsburgh can continue to plug the run (84 rushing yards allowed per game) and force Burrow and the offense into passing downs, Cincinnati’s weakness will easily be exploited if the Steelers can get healthy on defense.
But that's a big if.
Pittsburgh comes into Week 3 possibly down its QB, the best linebacker in the league in T.J. Watt, its best corner in Joe Haden, starting defensive linemen Tyson Alualu, Stephon Tuitt — plus leading receiver Diontae Johnson. Alualu and Tuitt are confirmed out and we’ll have to see how practice shapes up this week to better understand the others. Roethlisberger has a history of playing through injuries and a Mason Rudolph start would be a disaster for an already struggling offense.
With Watt exiting early in Week 2, Las Vegas’ Derek Carr picked apart the supposedly elite Pittsburgh defense for 382 yards and two scores. The Raiders had no success on the ground but were constantly gaining big yards against a defense that was missing its best players. The pass rush also fell off the table with the exit of Watt, which is likely the most important aspect of this Week 3 matchup: the Steelers’ D-line vs the Bengals’ O-line.
We may have to take the points with the Bengals again this week. This line has mostly dipped down to +3 with Big Ben's injury news (although a handful of books can still be found offering +3.5) and we think if practice goes poorly this week that number might slip even lower. Regardless, that's still a lot of points for a divisional game with a Pittsburgh offense that looked horrendous versus a Raiders team that was on short rest and traveling cross-country.
The Bengals defense is underrated and we’re comfortable taking them by more than a field goal, hoping the Pittsburgh injuries on defense are a blessing for this Cincinnati O-line.
Under 43.5 (-110)
This total continues to fall after opening at the low number of 44.5 and sits as low as 43.5 as of Wednesday morning. Pittsburgh has started the year 0-2 O/U as its combination of a stale offense (Bottom-10 in plays per game, yards per pass, and yards per rush) and a Top-5 DVOA rush defense have the makings of a team that will regularly see totals below 47.
If Roethlisberger and/or Johnson miss Week 3, the Steelers will, unfortunately, have to rely on a terrible running game that has just 114 yards through two games — the lowest total in the league.
Sunday is also not a great matchup for the Bengals’ offense. Cincinnati and Zac Taylor have really tried to establish the run, averaging 28 rushes a game (10th) but to little success with 3.9 YPC (20th). Even with the injuries, Pittsburgh is still tough in the middle and held the Raiders to 2.1 YPC in Week 2.
Both teams have found themselves playing behind the sticks through two weeks and it has resulted in long third downs, which have both clubs in the Bottom 10 in third-down conversion percentage. The Bengals have also given up a sack on 27 percent of QB hurries, which ranks 28th in the league, and having to swap a green rookie into the mix on the O-line isn’t going to fix the problem.
For Pittsburgh, the run game has produced nothing to date, leaving the aging Roethlisberger to face plenty of obvious passing third downs. Last week, Big Ben got into a lot of trouble trying to extend plays but at 39 and banged up, he looked more like Zach Wilson than vintage Ben.
If Ben sits and Rudolph starts, this total will come closer to 40 than 45. And even if Roethlisberger toughs it out, we’re not too excited about this offense and could expect to see another low-scoring AFC North battle.
First-quarter Under 7.5 (-115)
The Bengals and Steelers have scored a combined zero points in the first quarter this year. Yes, that’s right.
Only three teams in the league have failed to score in the first 15 minutes through two weeks and Cincinnati and Pittsburgh are two of them — getting a TD and another score might be asking for a lot.
Of course, both offenses could be coming into this match in worse shape than Weeks 1 and 2, as Cincinnati is dealing with offensive line injuries and Pittsburgh has Roethlisberger and Johnson questionable heading into the midweek. If you watched either of these offenses at full strength this year you wouldn’t be expecting points either.
Both defenses sit in the Top 4 against the rush and will be tough to run on out of the gates. Pittsburgh only had 16 RB rushes in Week 1 and followed that up with another 12 RB carries in Week 2. This is one of the worst rushing offensive lines in football but we’d expect Tomlin to try and get the running game off the ground to either protect Ben or help cover up that Rudolph is a terrible passer.
This should eat up some early clock and Pittsburgh’s pressure against the Cincy offensive line could also create some third-and-longs for Burrow and the offense.
Hopefully, it's a snoozer of a first quarter.
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