The Divisional Round is here and we’ve hit the books hard this week, looking into every market in search of value and great numbers — so you don't have to!
The Cincinnati Bengals travel to the rested Tennessee Titans as 3.5-point underdogs Saturday afternoon. The Bengals’ D-line is getting healthier, which is good news, as Derrick Henry is set to make his return after an 11-week hiatus and a successful recovery from foot surgery.
Will Henry see a full workload in his first game since Week 8? Can Joe Burrow carve up this Titans’ pass defense that ranks fifth in dropback success rate since Week 10? Find out in our Bengals vs. Titans free props and predictions.
Bengals vs Titans prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bengals vs Titans Divisional Round props
The forgotten one
With all the news about Derrick Henry likely to return, there hasn’t been a lot of talk about how this will be a huge upgrade for A.J. Brown, Julio Jones and the passing game. Henry demands attention in the box, and with the Bengals dealing with multiple injuries on the defensive line, Cincinnati may have to commit more bodies from their linebackers and/or secondary to protect the interior. This could leave Brown and Jones with more single coverage and space to rack up some yards after the catch.
Brown, Henry and Julio Jones have played together for roughly 10 percent of the Titans’ offensive snaps this season, but it’s safe to say that the three of them in the lineup make each other better. Ryan Tannehill averaged 9.4 yards per attempt when all three were in the lineup this season. He also passed to a league-best 9.8 Y/A in Weeks 1 through 8 with Henry in and facing eight-plus defenders in the box, per Ian Hartitz on Twitter.
Ryan Tannehill posted a league-best 91.1 PFF passing grade and averaged 9.8 YPA when facing 8+ defenders in the box with Derrick Henry in action Weeks 1-8
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) January 19, 2022
Basically the same rate of these types of dropbacks (20.2% vs 19.6%) rest of season, but grade (76.6) and YPA (7.3) way down
Jones may be the forgotten receiver here, as his inability to stay in the lineup has soured many prop bettors. However, the former All-Pro receiver leads the Titans in air yards per reception (10.4), and his 13.5 air yards per reception between Weeks 1 through 8 ranked seventh in the league amongst receivers with 10 or more grabs.
Jones also enters the Divisional Round coming off his best game in Week 18 versus the Texans where he finished with a team-high nine targets with a long reception of 19 yards.
With everyone getting healthier and the Bengals having to likely focus on stopping the run, Jones should have ample opportunities to top his longest reception total that sits 19.5 yards — four yards shorter than Brown's. When Henry was in the lineup, Brown topped this total in four of the five games he played.
PICK: Julio Jones Over 19.5 longest reception (-115 at bet365)
Selling high
Bengals’ tight end C.J. Uzomah had a big game in the Wild Card Round, catching all six of his targets for 64 yards and a touchdown. That production may be the reason we’re seeing his yardage total open higher than it has all year at 32.5 yards.
On the season, the TE’s receiving yard total never opened above 30 yards and closed at an average of 24.7 yards. We’re already starting to see the market bet against Uzomah, as some books have dropped their total to 30.5.
Another knock on Uzomah is how good the Titans have been at defending opposing tight ends. On the season, Mike Vrabel’s defense is allowing just 36 yards to opposing TEs, which is the fifth-lowest mark in the league. They also allow just a 60% completion rate to the position as well.
There are much better places to find low-yardage Overs than Uzomah, who is coming off a big game, is posting a season-high yardage total, and has a tough matchup. He also averages just 3.9 air yards per reception, which is the lowest mark of all the Bengals’ pass-catchers.
We’re following this market and expect this number to close around 12% lower than its opening number.
PICK: C.J. Uzomah Under 32.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Toe-tapping Tannehill
It might surprise some, but Ryan Tannehill finished the season with more rushing touchdowns than Buffalo’s Josh Allen. Tannehill finished with seven rushing TDs on the season and totaled three with Henry in the lineup. We can already picture Vrabel going with his heavy set on the two-yard line and Tannehill faking the handoff to Henry, getting around the corner for the score and finger rolling the pigskin in excitement.
Tannehill already has one playoff rushing TD to his name and finished as the second-most profitable TD scorer in the league this season at +13.0 units.
If the Titans get near the goal line with Henry in the backfield and A.J. Brown and Julio Jones out wide, Tannehill will have plenty of options. The underrated athlete could find some easy room to trot in, especially with injuries to the Bengals’ defensive line.
Rams EDGE Leonard Floyd (54) with a key block on that Tannehill TD pic.twitter.com/KEt646gCoE
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) November 8, 2021
PointsBet is giving us the best odds for our favorite mid-range TD prop of the game at +330. The Titans QB’s TD price has closed below this price in 13 of his 17 games and we like the prospects of him scoring a TD more so than either team’s tight ends who all have a similar TD price.
PICK: Ryan Tannehill anytime TD (+330 at PointsBet)
Same-game parlay for Bengals vs Titans
- Joe Burrow Over 276.5 passing yards
- Ryan Tannehill Under 239.5 passing yards
- Tennessee -3.5
Best odds: +1,000 at bet365
This is a simple pro-Tennessee game script SGP that will have the Titans leaning on the run while the Bengals will be playing catch-up. Joe Burrow gets plenty of yards but falters in the red zone. Tennessee covers Tannehill isn't asked to do too much in the passing game.
