With the playoff race heating up and motivation varying across matchups, this weekend offers plenty of NFL player props to capitalize on.
Although Saturday features two high-profile games, my focus is entirely on the Sunday slate as I target several exploitable matchups. Find out more in my NFL picks for Week 16, headlined by another big day from running back Bijan Robinson.
NFL Week 16 prop picks
Bijan Robinson o91.5 rushing yards (-110)
A.J. Brown o72.5 receiving yards (-110)
Brock Bowers o60.5 receiving yards (-110)
James Conner o106.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110)
Terry McLaurin u60.5 receiving yards (-110)
Click on each pick to see full analysis.
NFL prop picks for Week 16
Bijan Robinson Over 91.5 rushing yards
All the hoopla has been centered around the Atlanta Falcons benching Kirk Cousins, thrusting rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. into the limelight ahead of their upcoming home clash against the New York Giants.
The Falcons sit just one game back of the Bucs' for the divisional lead in the AFC South, and OC Zac Robinson should keep the game plan simple for Penix in his NFL debut, featuring a run-heavy approach for Bijan Robinson.
Robinson is fresh off his best outing of the season, carrying the ball 22 times for 125 yards against Las Vegas. The former first-round pick is set for arguably an even bigger day in Week 16 as he's set to face Giants defense surrendering 4.9 yards per carry, trailing only Carolina for the league-worst mark.
At an O/U of 91.5, I'd consider laddering Robinson to 100+ and 125+ in rushing milestones. The Falcons should lead early and have the game script in their favor against a New York side that has lost nine in a row.
Pick: Bijan Robinson Over 91.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-19
A.J. Brown Over 72.5 receiving yards
Any concern about A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts' so-called "rift" was put to bed last week as the All-Pro wideout was targeted 11 times and caught eight passes for 110 yards and a touchdown in a convincing 27-13 win over Pittsburgh.
That production came despite the Philadelphia Eagles leading for the entirety of the game and racking up 42 rushing attempts. More of a track meet will be expected on Sunday when the Eagles take on the Washington Commanders, who love to play aggressively and push the ball downfield with Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin.
Brown will be a good counter to the Commanders' offense, as the three-time Pro Bowler specializes in exploiting blitz packages, targeted at a Top-15 rate when defenses bring the heat. Facing a Washington defense that ranks 23rd in coverage grade at PFF, I'm backing Brown to have a field day in Landover.
Pick: A.J. Brown Over 72.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-19
Brock Bowers Over 61.5 receiving yards
One of the few silver linings of the Las Vegas Raiders' miserable 2-12 campaign has been the play of rookie tight end Brock Bowers. The 22-year-old has taken the NFL by storm, entering the weekend eighth in league receiving yards (968) and having been targeted 10+ times in three of his last five starts.
Currently sitting third in Offensive Rookie of the Year odds, Bowers has already eclipsed Sam LaPorta for the rookie record in tight end receptions, and he's only 108 yards shy of usurping Mike Ditka's mark for the most receiving yards by a TE in his rookie year.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have also been torched by TEs this season, ranking dead-last in yards allowed to the position. History could be made on Sunday at Allegiant Stadium.
Pick: Brock Bowers Over 61.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-19
James Conner Over 106.5 rushing + receiving yards
James Conner remains as dependable as ever in the backfield, and the Arizona Cardinals veteran is set to thrive in an even bigger role on Sunday.
Backup RB Trey Benson is currently banged up with an ankle and third-stringer Emari Demecado has been placed on IR. Benson saw a 13% snap share last week and 33% in Week 14.
Conner has cleared this prop in back-to-back games, tallying 20+ touches in each contest. He also leads the league in missed tackles and ranks second in rushes of 10+ yards (31), trailing only Saquon Barkley. Facing a Carolina Panthers defense that allows a league-worst 5.0 yards per carry, Conner should easily surpass this O/U.
Pick: James Conner Over 106.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-20
Terry McLaurin Under 60.5 receiving yards
The Philadelphia Eagles completely locked down Terry McLaurin in their previous meeting, with rookie corner Quinyon Mitchell limiting the Washington Commanders receiver to just one catch for 10 yards.
Vic Fangio's defense has been exceptional, allowing a league-best 173.4 passing yards per game and surrendering the third-fewest receiving yards to receivers lined up out wide. With McLaurin virtually a non-factor on the field, Jayden Daniels looked completely lost in that Week 11 loss to Philly, throwing for only 191 yards and targeting his No. 1 WR just twice.
A similar game plan from Fangio should be in the works, forcing Daniels to rely on secondary options. Noah Brown and Zach Ertz will likely see increased targets as the Eagles focus on neutralizing 'Scary Terry'.
Pick: Terry McLaurin Under 60.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 12-21
NFL Week 16 prop betting card
- Bijan Robinson o91.5 rushing yards (-110)
- A.J. Brown o72.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Brock Bowers o61.5 receiving yards (-110)
- James Conner o106.5 rushing + receiving yards (-110)
- Terry McLaurin u60.5 receiving yards (-110)
Not intended for use in MA.
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