I'm on a roll now with my NFL player props — going 8-2 over the last two weeks — including a perfect 8-0 on rushing props, and both Ls on pass-related plays.
So, of course, my card is mainly non-rushing props.
Hear me out though, OK? It just so happens that most of the rushing matchups I like are on Monday night. Considering that my NFL picks generally focus on the Sunday slate, here we are.
We can only work with what we have — and what we have are some superstar WRs, a pass-happy QB in a pass-heavy game script, an underappreciated running back, and a highly-anticipated RB return highlighting my best Week 7 props.
Latest NFL prop picks
Chubb o42.5 rush yards
(-114 at FanDuel)
Pollard o62.5 rush yards
(-110 at bet365)
Smith o24.5 completions
(+100 at BetMGM)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 7
Nick Chubb Over 42.5 rush yards
The Cleveland Browns are an absolute dumpster fire. We know this. Deshaun Watson is the worst QB in the league, the offense is a joke, and the team has already traded away its star wide receiver.
This week, however, the vibes will probably be the highest you'll see for the remainder of the year as star running back Nick Chubb returns to the field after a gruesome leg injury suffered in Week 2 last season.
Don't believe me that the team is hyped to have its heart and soul back? Don't take my word for it — listen for yourself
getting emotional over the ENTIRE locker room hyping Nick Chubb up before he spoke to the media 🥲pic.twitter.com/DXS5SfK3WA
— Browns Film Breakdown (@BrownsFilmBDN) October 16, 2024
I understand that making a "vibes pick" is a little suspect, there is also the fact that Chubb has a favorable matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals, which allows about 105 yards per game to RBs, has given up 149+ total rushing yards in four of six games, and ranks 23rd in run stop win rate.
There is uncertainty around how much of a workload Chubb will get, and he's obviously going to need some time to get back into shape, but 42.5 yards seems quite low for a guy who was arguably the best pure runner in the NFL pre-injury and averaged better than 90 yards per game over the last five years.
The Browns offensive line will be fired up in front of him. Chubb, as highlighted in his letter to fans via The Players Tribune, will be fired up. Huntington Bank Stadium is going to erupt when he takes the field.
Yes, the Browns will probably lose 37-6... but that doesn't mean Chubb can't get around 10 carries, break off at least one big run, and top this total against a bad run defense.
Industry projections range as high as 62 yards for Chubb and average around 53 yards for his return, giving extra confidence to feel good about this bet in what will likely be the last positive for Cleveland this season.
Pick made on 10-18
Tony Pollard Over 62.5 rush yards
With Tyjae Spears still not practicing due to injury, Tony Pollard could get an even bigger workload this Sunday for the Tennessee Titans.
That makes the Over on his rushing total an intriguing prop against the Buffalo Bills, who have not exactly been a stalwart run defense.
The Bills are giving up 110 rushing yards per game to running backs, including 199 to Derrick Henry three weeks ago and 113 to Breece Hall on Monday, and allow a league-worst 5.3 yards per carry overall.
Pollard is by no means a star, but he's 13th among all backs at 15.6 rushing attempts per game and averages about 68 yards per week on the ground. His numbers are skewed by a six-carry, 14-yard effort in a Week 3 blowout loss; remove that anomaly and he's averaging 18 carries and 81.3 ypg in the other four contests.
Tennessee's defense isn't terrible, and keeping the ball on the ground (and out of QB Will Levis' reckless hands) is likely the Titans' best path to contention. Factor in that RB2 Spears is unlikely to suit up and I could see Pollard approaching 20+ carries.
Industry projections range as high as 83 yards for Pollard, with an average of 71 yards, adding a little extra confidence that he can grind his way past this total.
Pick made on 10-18
Geno Smith Over 24.5 completions
The Seattle Seahawks sad-sack defense is going to try to contain an Atlanta Falcons offense on Sunday that has scored 74 points over the last two games.
I say "try," because I don't expect Seattle to succeed — which means quarterback Geno Smith will be slangin' it to keep his team in contention.
Falcons opponents have completed 26+ passes in three of its last four games as Atlanta's defensive gameplan is 'don't get torched': It plays zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the league and allows the highest completion percentage... but the fifth-lowest yards per attempt and sixth-lowest air yards per attempt.
Atlanta also generates QB pressure at the second-lowest rate in the league (14%), so Smith should be able to sit back and enjoy his dinking-and-dunking.
As for Geno, he just so happens to also lead the NFL in pass attempts and pass completions while sitting 27th among starting QBs in average depth of target; he's content just methodically plodding down the field.
Smith has topped this number in five straight games (averaging 31 completions per week over that span) and industry projections put him just north of 26 completions on Sunday, ranging as high as 29.
I'll happily take him here at even money.
Pick made on 10-17
Justin Jefferson Over 91.5 receiving yards
Keeping the theme of "superstar wide receivers" I'm betting the Over on Justin Jefferson's odds, despite the highest receiving yards total of anyone this week.
This is a number JJ has topped in two of his last four contests, averaging 97.8 yards per game average in that span. That includes 92 yards two weeks ago in a rainy matchup against the New York Jets' vaunted secondary in what was quarterback Sam Darnold's worst game of the season thus far.
Darnold, Jefferson, and the Minnesota Vikings had a chance to reset during a bye week following that game, and now get to face a not-so-scary Detroit Lions pass defense that has allowed the most receptions (19) and yards (211) per game to wide receivers, and took a massive hit in losing superstar pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson to injury last week.
That should give Darnold extra time to find open receivers; and he looks at nobody more than Jefferson, who has more than half of all the Vikings' WR targets and receptions.
This game has shootout potential, as one of three games this week with a total north of 50, and with the Lions allowing bona fide No. 1s in Cooper Kupp, Metcalf, and Lamb, to go for 110, 104, and 89 yards, I'd expect the league's best receiver to put up another monster day.
Industry projections sit as high as 109 for Jefferson on Sunday, adding a little confidence that he can — and will — torment the Lions.
Pick made on 10-17
A.J. Brown Over 66.5 receiving yards
Yes, yes, this is the Saquon Barkley revenge game, but the value is in A.J. Brown odds, as his receiving yards total seems curiously low.
Brown has played just two games so far this season, but he recorded 116 and 119 in those contests — while facing tough competition.
The Philadelphia Eagles star WR faced Jaire Alexander in Week 1, catching 4 of 6 targets for 108 yards, then caught 6 of 8 for 117 yards against the Cleveland Browns trio of Denzel Ward, Martin Emerson Jr., and Greg Newsome last week.
This Sunday, he'll likely see a lot of New York Giants CB Deonte Banks, who, well, isn't great: He's among the 14th most-targeted CBs this season, allowing a 63% completion rate and 14.7 yards per completion.
So far against top-tier perimeter receivers, he's allowed Justin Jefferson, Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, D.K. Metcalf, and Tee Higgins to average 75 yards per game just while in his coverage... and A.J. is right among those dudes.
The weather is expected to be nice in New York, with early forecasts around 76 degrees with light wind, and industry projections range as high as 83 yards for Brown on Sunday. This is another matchup where he should feast.
Pick made on 10-16
NFL Week 7 prop betting card
- A.J. Brown Over 66.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Justin Jefferson Over 91.5 receiving yards (-120)
- Geno Smith Over 24.5 completions (+100)
- Tony Pollard Over 62.5 rush yards (-110)
- Nick Chubb Over 42.5 rush yards (-114)
Last week: 4-1, +2.64 units
Season: 17-13, +2.71 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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