NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 1: Ridley Rips Apart Sad Colts Secondary

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Yesterday I gave you three NFL player props I really liked, though considering two of them were fades, I started to wonder if I wanted to be associated with having such a negative tone.

I'm a pretty positive person, so after sifting through the NFL odds again, I'm taking a more positive outlook with my free NFL picks — and taking Overs for my today's three bets!

"Backing veteran pass-catchers" is the main theme, as I'm betting on a reliable face (err, set of hands) for Matthew Stafford, as well as a Buccaneer that people seem a little too down on, plus I'm also looking at a Jaguar to outrun a bunch of Colts downfield.

After yesterday's amuse-bouche, here is the final course for my best NFL prop picks for Week 1.

Latest NFL prop picks

•  Ridley longest rec o22.5 yards
•  Higbee o44.5 rec yards
•  Godwin o52.5 rec yards

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Ridley's no enigma

Following Trevor Lawrence's breakout in the second half of 2022, the Jacksonville Jaguars have been salivating at the thought of T-Law connecting with Calvin Ridley after the Jaggies acquired him midseason while he was serving a year-long suspension.

Ridley looked energized during the preseason, with many noting that he looks faster than ever, and head coach Doug Pederson will surely want to get his No. 1 target involved in the action as soon as possible.

He led the NFL with 36 targets and 16 catches of 20+ yards in 2020, when Matt Ryan was still a capable quarterback, but when his Matty Ice's arm (and average depth of target) melted in 2021, so did Ridley's deep shots. Those bombs should be back in 2023, however, as Lawrence was fifth in pass attempts (and 10th in completions) of 20+ yards last season, while throwing to Christian Kirk, whose strength is as a slot receiver, old man Marvin Jones Jr., and journeyman Zay Jones.

Ridley provides a bona fide deep threat and will be facing an Indianapolis Colts secondary that will be sending the likes of rookie JuJu Brents and undrafted free agents Darrell Baker Jr. and UDFA Dallis Flowers — with a combined 143 total defensive snaps in the NFL — to try and cover Ridley on the outside.

Oh, and all of those snaps belong to Flowers... from the last four weeks of 2022 when he gave up five catches on nine targets and 17 yards per catch.

Lawrence logged four completions of 20+ yards against the Colts last year, of which both games were early in the season, before Lawrence blew up. This version of the Jags QB is even better, Ridley is better than any weapon he's ever had, and he's facing some very exploitable matchups.

I'm expecting him to make a splash in his Duval debut and haul in at least one big chunk play, especially when his longest reception total is just 22.5 yards.

Prop: Calvin Ridley longest reception Over 22.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM)

The Hig is up

Listen, I get it: The Los Angeles Rams offense wasn't going to be great to begin with, and it's going to be even worse this Sunday without Cooper Kupp, but QB Matthew Stafford has to throw to somebody... and there's a good chance it's going to be veteran tight end Tyler Higbee.

With Kupp sidelined, Stafford's top receiving options are youngsters Van Jefferson, Tutu Atwell, Puka Nacua, and rookie RB Kyren Williams — not exactly beacons of reliability.

The Seattle Seahawks, though, did struggle against tight ends last year, giving up the second-most receiving yards (65.6) on 4.65 catches per game to the position. Higbee was also already established as a preferred target for Stafford, averaging 7.2 targets and almost 40 yards per game with him (and Kupp) in the lineup last year. Once Stafford went down (which also generally coincided with Kupp also being out), Higbee's targets dropped — but he was still the team leader in targets and receptions over the final six games.

LA's offensive line is also expected to be among the worst units in the league, meaning Stafford will often need to get rid of the ball... quickly.

Looking at Higbee's receiving yards total, it currently sits at 44.5, which is about eight yards lower than what THE BLITZ projects and also lower than the general industry consensus (47.3). Given that Lumen Field is one of the loudest, most challenging venues for visiting teams to play in, which could have an effect on some of the more inexperienced Rams pass catchers, I'd bank on Stafford looking early (and often) for his most dependable option — and go Over on the Tyler Higbee odds for his receiving yards — a number he topped in six of nine games with Matty last season.

Prop: Tyler Higbee Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

CGs good with me

Everybody and their parrot is down on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season — and it's hard to blame them: An aging defense, depleted O-line, and going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield will do that.

It's also led to people being down on slot receiver Chris Godwin's odds, but I think there's reason to like him to go Over a receiving yards total against the Minnesota Vikings, which is just a modest 52.5 yards.

Mayfield doesn't have many apparent strengths as an NFL QB, although last year he was at his best with intermediate/deep routes over the middle of the field. But guess what? That's actually a better profile for Godwin than Brady, whose aging arm really struggled with deep throws. No, I'm saying Baker is better than Brady (as that's very much not true), but Baker will likely be looking to go downfield into Godwin's area of operations a bit more... and the Vikings' secondary is a little ripe for the picking.

Minny's top four corners from last year, based on snap count, are all no longer on the roster, with sophomores Andrew Booth Jr. and Akayleb Evans (267 combined snaps last year) the main options, along with free agent Byron Murphy Jr., who missed the second half of last season with back issues.

Godwin averaged 70.6 yards per game over his final 14 games in 2022, after dealing with injuries through the first three weeks, registering at least 54 yards 12 times. He is healthy entering the year, and while WR counterpart Mike Evans is also listed as healthy, he missed the entire preseason with a hamstring ailment — I'd be a little concerned that he could be on a snap count.

THE BLITZ is also very bullish on Godwin, projecting him for about 72 receiving yards. FanDuel is also a bit of an outlier here, currently offering a total that is 4-5 yards lower than the rest of the industry, so capitalize on that — and considering the Bucs likely will be trailing in this game, we could get a boost from some pass-heavy drives later in the game (a.k.a. garbage time) to get Over this number.

But nobody asks how you win... just if you win, amirite?

Prop: Chris Godwin Over 52.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Swagg slowed down

After posting his first 1,000-yard season last year, Jamaal Williams left Detroit to join the New Orleans Saints, where he is expected to start the season as the lead running back — at least while Alvin Kamara is suspended and rookie Kendre Miller is questionable while dealing with a hamstring injury.

Jamaal Williams' odds currently sit as high as 55.5 rushing yards, and while he'll be the RB1 this Sunday, I'm going Under on his total vs. an elite Tennessee Titans rush defense. The Titans were No. 1 in the NFL in run block win rate and rushing yards against last season (just 67 yards per game Weeks 2-17), despite being first in the league in man games lost — by a large margin — including not having Pro Bowl LB Harold Landry for the entire year.

The Titans are healthy again, and Williams wasn't exactly a dominant runner last year: Despite finishing seventh in the NFL in carries in 2022, Williams was just 42nd in yards after contact per attempt, 51st in breakaway percentage (behind noted speedster Zeke Elliott), and 60th in elusive rating (among all RB with 50+ carries, per Pro Football Focus).

Williams' Week 1 rushing total is actually higher than his total for four of his final five games last season — three of which he still went Under — and for the season he only faced three Top-10 rush defenses. A new quarterback and new offense could also take some time to gel, and if New Orleans falls behind, running could become less of an option.

I think 56+ rush yards (even 50+ yards) will be a challenge against the league's premier run-stopping unit... plus, if Miller does suit up on Sunday, that's even fewer carries for the "1st Swagg Kazekage," whose only chance to go Over requires a good volume of carries.

Prop: Jamaal Williams Under 55.5 rushing yards (-125 at PointsBet)

Herbie gon' huck it

The Los Angeles Chargers have given the reigns to the offense to Kellen Moore, who has gone on record to say he wants this offense to be more aggressive and push the ball downfield more.

You know what that means to me? Getting Justin Herbert odds for an interception at plus money is too good for me to turn down.

First, any time you hear that an offense wants to get more aggressive, that usually means more risk, which should translate to more interceptions for a QB. Herbert was middle of the pack in INTs last year, under Joe Lombardi's highly conservative scheme, so forcing more balls downfield should only help us.

Second, it's not like Herbie has a ton of support to take the pressure off him: The Bolts were one of the weaker rushing attacks in the league last season and the offensive line finished 23rd in pass block win rate and gave up the second-most QB hits in the league last year... and didn't really improve. Not having a lot of time in the pocket will force Herbert into rushed decisions, which (you guessed it) ups the odds of a pick happening.

Finally, the third (and perhaps most compelling) reason to like Herbert to throw an interception is that the Miami Dolphins defense is going to be very, very good. Defensive sage Vic Fangio is now running the Fins' defense, and his philosophy will see his team play a lot more zone, relying more on pressure from the defensive line — which PFF has ranked as the fourth-best in the league, headlined by edge defender Jaelan Phillips and interior menace Christian Wilkins.

The Dolphins secondary was also crushed by injuries last year and torched by a number of deep balls and blown coverages, a byproduct of having the league's third-highest blitz rate. More zone means more guys in coverage, and even with offseason acquisition Jalen Ramsey hurt, Xavien Howard and Brandon Jones are healthy while Jevon Holland is an emerging star at safety. 

Fangio is also familiar with Herbert from his time in Denver, with the Broncos picking him off four times in four career matchups. With the talent on the Dolphins' defense as well as the 180 on the scheme (from both sides), Herbert will likely be under constant pressure.

Prop: Justin Herbert Over 0.5 interceptions (+135 at BetMGM)

Moore powerrrrr

There are some concerns around the Cleveland Browns regarding how good Deshaun Watson will be, but there's no doubt that he will need to throw the ball this Sunday in a divisional showdown with Joe Burrow and the high-octane Cincinnati Bengals offense.

Most of the attention for the Brownies' pass-catchers goes to Amari Cooper or David Njoku, but I'm eyeing up newcomer Elijah Moore's odds, as his receiving yards total is just 30.5 yards.

Now, full disclosure: This line was first posted Thursday afternoon at a criminally low 24.5 yards — and I was all over it, ready to share with the world. Then by the time TNF kicked off... bammo it's at 30.5, where it still sits at the time of writing. But fear not: It's still a number I'm happily playing.

Through the first 14 weeks of 2022, he saw at least 60% of the offensive snaps in seven of those games, averaging 37.6 receiving yards in those games and hitting at least 49 yards five times, and also topping that number in his last six games as a rookie in 2021 (76.5 per game average).

Inconsistent playing time — and frustration with his usage — was his downfall in New York, but all signs point to a happy marriage in Cleveland: Reports throughout the preseason said he immediately developed great chemistry with Watson, while Zac Jackson of The Athletic noted that Moore has now become the team's biggest deep threat, and to "expect both Moore and Njoku to get a bunch of quick, safe targets the team hopes can turn into occasional big catch-and-run plays."

It's expected that head coach Kevin Stefanski will line up Moore all over the field (and even in the backfield), using his elite speed and athleticism to create mismatches and get the ball in his hands.

Looking at the Browns' other receivers, Cooper (who will likely be shadowed by Chidobe Awuzie) is at 58.5 yards, Njoku and Donovan Peoples-Jones (the incumbent No. 2 WR) are at 35.5. Moore has proven that when given consistent snaps and opportunities, he can easily top those numbers — and he's done it with the likes of Zach Wilson and Mike White... neither of which are the quality of Watson.

Industry projections have Moore anywhere from 37 to 42 yards, a consensus that shows his total is still too low, even after Thursday's move. I'm also in on Moore's Over 2.5 receptions for the game (priced as low as -110), as we likely will not see totals this low for him again all season. 

Prop: Elijah Moore Over 30.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

NFL Week 1 prop betting card

• Calvin Ridley longest reception Over 22.5 yards (-110)
• Tyler Higbee Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Chris Godwin Over 52.5 receiving yards (-114)

     - - 

• Jamaal Williams Under 55.5 rush yards (-125)
• Justin Herbert Over 0.5 interceptions (+135)
• Elijah Moore Over 30.5 receiving yards (-110)

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