NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 10: White Getting More Touches in Tampa

We’re already in Week 10 and despite a bump in the road last week, it’s been a profitable season to date on the player prop front.

The Week 10 markets have been slow to open but that hasn’t stopped me from finding some gems, and today’s NFL player prop picks are exactly that. I’m hitting the Over on a pair of rookie running backs who have very different roles on their respective teams. 

I break it all down below. 

Latest NFL prop picks

• Pierce Over 77.5 rushing yards
• White Over 27.5 rushing yards

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Sunday

Leaning on limited

Houston rookie running back Dameon Pierce has put in some limited practices this week, which has some bettors unsure about his props. But, with the extra time off after a Thursday night game in Week 9 and being the majority of this offense, I’m happy to take a swing at his Over 76.5 rushing yards this week.

Week 9 showed us that the Texans will feature Pierce in negative game scripts, as Davis Mills attempted just 22 passes in a game the Texans trailed for nearly 30 minutes. Pierce finished with a career-high 27 carries for 139 yards vs. the No.4 defense in EPA/play.

Pierce had three carries of 10-plus yards in that game and now gets to see a Giants defense that sits 23rd in EPA/rush. Getting receivers Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks back should help prevent the Giants from stacking the box completely and selling out to stop the run. 

The Giants are allowing over 110 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs and with Pierce handling roughly 80% of the snaps and getting 84% of the team’s rushing yards, his seventh 80-yard game in eight matches is highly probable. That makes his Over 77.5 rushing yards an easy play and a total that could close north of 80 if he gets in a full practice late in the week. 

Dameon Pierce Prop: Over 77.5 rushing yards (-112)

Momentum shift

Last week, heading into their Week 9 game vs. the Rams, it was reported that people within the Bucs’ organization didn’t think they were running the ball enough as they were averaging just 20 rushing attempts going into that game. 

They still ran the ball just 20 times vs. the Rams but rookie running back Rachaad White led the team in rushing yards, with 37 over eight carries, as Leonard Fournette continues to plod.

Over the Bucs’ last four games, Fournette is averaging just 2.7 yards per carry while the rookie is running a full yard better per carry. It’s nothing earth-shattering but we could certainly be seeing, at worst, a 60/40 snap-share split. With White’s rushing total 16 yards shorter, it’s the rookie’s total I’m looking to hit the Over with.

Last week’s rushing percentage looks like a floor for this Tampa team and if the Bucs do decide to feature the run more, White’s 27.5 rushing total could come easily. Greg Auman of The Athletic wrote this week “the momentum will likely be with White at the end of the season in Tampa’s backfield.” That shift could be happening this week ahead of the Germany game. 

Tampa’s run blocking has been bad this season but if White is going to see 8-10 carries Sunday at a 3.0 ypc average (at worse), that usage could still get us to the Over. 

If White gets the majority of carries and outrushes Fournette for the third time in four games, these rushing totals could be looking awfully similar heading into Week 11. It’s with good reason the books have upped his rushing total from 19.5 yards last week. 

Rachaad White Prop: Over 27.5 rushing yards (-115)

NFL prop picks for Saturday

K9 to Air Bud

Pete Carroll talked about “cutting Kenneth Walker loose” in Week 9 and the rookie running back finished with career-highs in carries (26), targets (4), catches (3), and receiving yards (20). It’s his involvement in the passing game that has me the most excited about his Week 10 prop outlook.

Since Week 6, Walker leads the Seahawks' backfield in targets with nine, while DeeJay Dallas has become irrelevant in the passing game and Travis Homer has four targets over two weeks on roughly 25% of the snaps. 

Walker is the man in Seattle now and his role in the passing game could be growing as he gets more comfortable with pass protection. Walker didn’t do much pass-catching in college, but Pete Carroll has been raving about his creativity and compared him to LaDainian Tomlinson this week.

If he sees even half of the targets he got last week, he has a great shot at topping his receiving yard total of 10.5 yards.

The potential game script is also in our favor here with the Bucs moving to 3-point favorites in some spots.

Kenneth Walker Prop: Over 10.5 receiving yards (-110)

One and done

This play is only available at DraftKings and Caesars, but Chase Claypool Over 0.5 rushing yards looks like a great play.

Last week, in his first game with his new team, the former Steeler played just 35% of the snaps and still saw six targets and received one carry, which he took for four yards. In that game, the Bears had four rushing attempts from receivers or tight ends, and have incorporated end-arounds into their already run-heavy playbook.

Play-caller and OC Luke Getsy has been unlocking this offense’s potential over the last three weeks and bringing in Claypool, who had eight rushes for 55 yards with the Steelers over eight games this year, is adding another wrinkle. 

Claypool has averaged just under 1.0 carries per game over the last two seasons and with 4.42 speed and a big frame, he’s another weapon Getsy will use in the rushing game, especially with another week of experience and familiarity for the receiver.

With the offense running more play-action and read-options than ever while also maximizing the skill sets of the players, I’d be very surprised if Claypool didn’t have more chances rushing the ball in a great matchup versus a bad Detroit defense.

Chase Claypool Prop: Over 0.5 rushing yards (-110)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Fields' field

Justin Fields is coming off his best game as a professional vs. the Dolphins with three passing touchdowns and another on the ground with over 175 yards rushing. The second-year QB could be in for another big day with a date vs. the Lions’ No.32-ranked defense in EPA/play.

Fields has six passing TDs over his last three games and although the volume hasn’t been there, he’s made up for it with some solid red-zone play. Over their last three games, the Bears are tied with the most RZ scoring attempts per game (4.7) and most RZ touchdowns per game at 3.0. All five of Fields’ last passing TDs have come inside the opposing red zone and his running threat is giving Darnell Mooney, Cole Kmet, and now Chase Claypool some room near the goalline. 

Fields might have one of the worst deep-ball completion percentages (23.3%), but his 56.5% red-zone completion percentage ranks 10th in the league, per Player Profiler. 

I’m not advocating for Fields’ passing yard total as his team’s heavy rush approach eats up plenty of yards between the 20s, but when the yards get tough inside the red zone, Fields is getting creative and finding success through the air. Detroit is also giving up RZ touchdowns at a 63.3% rate, a Bottom 10 mark in the NFL.

The Over 1.5 passing TDs is paying +215 at bet365 which is implying roughly 0.92 passing scores but this is much more of a coin flip putting the projected odds at -110ish. 

If you want to keep riding the hottest QB in football, his Over 1.5 passing TDs at +215 is the best value of his markets. Weather conditions are also looking good for Soldier Field.

Justin Fields Prop: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+215)

Coming out of the bye

The bye week might have some bettors forgetting about Denver rookie tight end Greg Dulcich, who was coming on before the Week 9 break.

The third-rounder hit the starting lineup in Week 6 and since then has been the second-most targeted player (17.7%) on his team with 12 catches for 182 yards and has three catches of 30+ yards, which also leads the team. His 75% route participation ranks 11th among TEs and he's already seen five deep targets in just three games. 

The books are well aware of his current production as his receiving total sits at 40.5 after closing at 33.5 in Week 8 and 23.5 in Week 7, but with the rookie gaining confidence, dominating snaps (87% in Week 8), and being an important part of the Broncos’ scripted plays (five catches for 89 yards in the first drives of the first and second half in the last two games), there is still room for growth this week.

Dulcich went 6/51/0 with Brett Rypien under center and 4/87/0 with Russell Wilson in Week 8. Now the bye will give him even more reps with the offense and Wilson. 

Receiving avg. among TEs, Weeks 6-9:

1. Greg Dulcich (@Broncos) ... 15.2
2. Cade Otton (T.B.) ... 13.1
3. Travis Kelce (K.C.) ... 13.0
4. George Kittle (S.F.) ... 12.9
5. T.J. Hockenson (Min.) ... 12.4 pic.twitter.com/EenMcmXXv0

— Tyler Gorse (@Tyler_Gorse_) November 8, 2022

The Titans are allowing 67.6 receiving yards to opposing TEs on the season, the third most in football. Starting safety Amani Hooker is questionable again after missing last week where Patrick Mahomes passed for 446 yards and the Kansas City TEs combined for 13 catches and 152 yards including a 29% target share. I’m hoping Nathaniel Hackett was taking notes during his week off. 

Even with the increased total, Dulcich’s role and big-play ability are enough for me to pull the trigger on his Over 40.5 receiving yards. The matchup is great, the production checks the box, and with how the rushing game has been, his opportunity should also be a plus.

Greg Dulcich Prop: Over 40.5 receiving yards (-110)

Tua keeps rolling

Football Outsiders, RBSDM, Pro Football Focus, and Next Gen Stats all have Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa ranked as the No. 1 QB in football heading into Week 10. He has two receivers in the Top 5 in receiving yards and opposing defensive coordinators have no answer for Mike McDaniel’s offense that is using a ton of motion combined with RPOs to lead the league in yards per attempt at 8.6.

Here is a great video from Thinking Football showcasing McDaniel’s scheme and how he's using motion and speed to create huge holes in the defense downfield and how it’s nearly impossible to slow down. 

Tua has a date with the Browns and their No.28 defense in EPA/play at home this week with great passing conditions. The Browns are coming out of the bye but are not healthy in the secondary — starting corners Greg Newsome and Denzel Ward were limited at practice Wednesday. Ward has been out since Week 5 and slot corner Newsome is dealing with an oblique issue.

To make matters worse, starting outside corner Martin Emerson Jr. was a DNP with an illness on Wednesday. Having three of your most-important DBs at less than 100% vs. the speed of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill is a recipe for another big day through the air for Tagovailoa. 

Tua’s passing total sits at 268.5 yards which is six yards higher than his average on the season but a number he has easily topped in back-to-back weeks in games with a similar projected game script (-4 at Detroit and -3.5 at Chicago). THE BLITZ is projecting just under 300 passing yards for the Miami signal-caller. 

Tua Tagovailoa Prop: Over 268.5 passing yards (-110)

Season to date: 71-62, +7.87 units (Risking 1 unit per play)

NFL Week 10 prop betting card

• Pierce Over 77.5 rushing yards (-112)
• White Over 27.5 rushing yards (-115)

        — —

• Fields Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (+215)
• Dulcich Over 40.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Tagovailoa Over 268.5 passing yards (-110)

        — —

• Walker Over 10.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Claypool Over 0.5 rushing yards (-110)

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