The horrors of Halloween may be behind us, but sometimes betting on NFL player props can leave you seeing ghosts like 2019 Sam Darnold.
Take last week, for example, where we had a 2-3 week (an improvement on the fortnight prior) but those three losses came in the form of two star players getting hurt midway through the game, and another bet falling short by the hook... of a receiving yards prop.
Woof.
However, there are always positives to be gleaned from painful situations: The process seemed good, so we're going to stick with it this week, where I'll kick off my best NFL picks by going with the league's most dominant running back to shine on TNF.
Latest NFL prop picks
Henry o89.5 rush yards
(-110 at DraftKings)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 10
Derrick Henry Over 89.5 rush yards
The Baltimore Ravens face AFC North rival Cincinnati Bengals tonight on TNF, which is exactly the type of game that Baltimore acquired Derrick Henry for: A hard-nosed contest, where he can punish an opponent — on a short week — and break their will in the latter stages of the game.
After logging 106 yards on the ground last week, King Henry has rumbled for almost 132 yards per game since Week 3, topping 90 yards in six of those seven contests and going for 130+ yards four times, and faces a Bengals defense that isn't great in defending the run.
The Bengals have held opponents to under 120 rushing yards in three of their last four games, but those matchups came against the No. 17, 28, and 31-ranked rushing attacks. Against good ground games... Cincy has wilted, surrendering 161 yards to the Eagles two weeks ago, 175 yards to these same Ravens a month ago (including 92 yards to Henry), and 153 yards per game in its six games outside those three anomalies.
Cincinnati may also be without DT B.J. Hill, who is questionable after suffering a rib injury last week, an injury that should only get magnified against a Ravens team that calls the most rushing plays per game and is fourth in the league in run block win rate.
Industry projections range as high as 102 yards for Henry tonight and predominantly sit in the 97-yard range, giving added confidence for what should be another big game for the King.
Pick made on 11-6
NFL Week 10 prop betting card
- Derrick Henry Over 89.5 rush yards (-110)
Last week: 2-3, -1.24 units
Season: 21-24, -4.79 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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