NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 11: Take Advantage of Lamb's Low Totals

The Dallas Cowboys visiting the Minnesota Vikings may be the best NFL game to watch in Week 11, but it also features a ton of betting value as stud wide receiver CeeDee Lamb goes against a shaky Vikes secondary (while trying to one-up Minnesota star Justin Jefferson too).

Meanwhile, the Bengals-Steelers game wasn't good enough to stay in the SNF spot... but there's another No. 1 WR in that matchup who is more than good enough to garner my attention.

With kickoff just hours away, here is my best free NFL player prop picks for today — with a No. 1 wide receiver flavor.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Higgins Over 5.5 receptions
• Lamb Over 75.5 receiving yards

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Sunday

Fresh in my white (and orange) Tee

The Cincinnati Bengals are still without top wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase this week, and I’m expecting that to mean another good volume day for de facto No. 1 Tee Higgins against the Pittsburgh Steelers. 

Higgins has at least five catches and seven targets in six of the seven full games he’s played this season (he left Week 1 early due to injury) and in the two games without Chase, Higgins has seen his yard per target drop from 10.34 yards to 7.79 yards — he’s stepped in as Joe Burrow’s primary target and safety blanket.

Higgins also has a huge advantage against a Steelers secondary that, well, stinks. Pittsburgh allows the third-most receptions and receiving yards per game to wide receivers this season, and while star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is expected to return after missing one game, the state of the Steelers’ cornerbacks will have Higgins salivating.

Ahkello Witherspoon is out, meaning the Bengals’ third-year WR will likely be lining up mostly against Levi Wallace and Cameron Sutton (as Higgins spends about 78% of his snaps on the outside), as well as Arthur Maulet when he does line up in the slot.

Higgins has a 4-6 inch height advantage on all three of those CBs and with the weather forecast calling for wind gusts as high as 25 mph at Acrisure Field — plus T.J. Watt bringing pressure — throwing deep balls may be difficult, so Burrow will again be looking in Higgins’ direction to get rid of the ball quick.

Lots of short/intermediate routes and a number of exploitable mismatches have me expecting Higgins to haul in a lot of receptions on Sunday, so I’m teeing up the Over 5.5 receptions.

Tee Higgins Prop: Over 5.5 receptions (-128)

CeeDee on full blast

CeeDee Lamb has been the Dallas Cowboys' top passing target all season, but after hauling in just 63.3% of targets with backup quarterback Cooper Rush at the helm, Lamb has caught 71.4% of targets — with at least 70 receiving yards — in the three games since Dak Prescott returned to the lineup. 

What makes Lamb so dangerous is that he's not a one-trick pony — he can do damage from a number of different spots and routes.

CeeDee Lamb earned a career-high 150 receiving yards with a reception on 7 different route types.

Lamb has gained at least 70 receiving yards on six different routes this season, trailing only Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson (7).#DALvsGB | #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/MA8Ni2jEqx

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) November 14, 2022

His best performance of the year came last week when he caught 11 of 15 targets for 150 yards against the Packers, and in Week 11, he's got a juicy date with a Minnesota Vikings secondary that struggles against wide receivers.

The Vikings are second-last in catches and yards allowed to WRs and sit near the bottom of the league in both receiver catch rate and yards per target allowed.

Veteran cornerback Patrick Peterson has had a resurrection this season, but he doesn't shadow a singular opponent anymore (his 37.3% shadow rate is 97th among all CBs this year), and he primarily has been deployed against the opponent's No. 2 WR.

After Peterson, things get dicey for Minny: Cam Dantzler is on the IR. His replacement, 4th-round rookie Akalyeb Evans, left with a concussion last week and is questionable... meaning the Vikings will be digging deep down the depth chart to try and contain the guy who sits 13th in receptions per game (5.9) and 11th in receiving yards per game (78.4) among all WRs.

Lamb is looking at reception and receiving yards totals that are below his per-game averages, but considering the Over 5.5 receptions is juiced to around the -150 range, we'll look at Lamb to rack up the receiving yards Sunday afternoon.

CeeDee Lamb Prop: Over 75.5 receiving yards (-115)

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Dammmmmmn, Darnell

Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields has mostly been highlighted by his ridiculous running totals, but the sophomore signal-caller has also improved as a passer too — and that's good for top wide receiver, Darnell Mooney.

Mooney started off with just four catches for 27 yards in his first three games, but he's averaging 62.4 receiving yards per game in his seven contests since then — recording at least 52 yards six times — and in his most recent four games Fields has been connecting with him to the tune of an 82.6% catch rate.

Up next is a terrible Atlanta Falcons secondary, and Mooney is facing a receiving yards total of just 43.5 yards... what?

Atlanta is giving up both the most passing yards and completions against per game in the league, and the secondary is in shambles as A.J. Terrell is a game-time decision after missing the previous three games with a hamstring injury, meaning he'd be unlikely to be 100% even if he does play, and Casey Hayward is on the IR.

That leaves recently acquired Rashad Fenton — who was added for a conditional seventh-round pick two weeks ago — in line for another start, and he has allowed 19 catches on 23 targets for 260 yards this season... including three catches on three targets for 60 yards to the Panthers last week in his Falcons debut.

Considering Mooney is getting nearly one-third of the team's targets against a bad (and banged-up) secondary — inside a dome — I'm looking at Mooney to top this total for the seventh time in eight games on Sunday.

Darnell Mooney Prop: Over 43.5 receiving yards (-110)

Dome shot

Did anyone get a bigger boost this week than the Buffalo Bills' passing attack?

They went from playing in up to six feet of snow and winds around 35 mph... to the comfy confines of a dome-covered turf at Ford Field in Detroit, which has me circling the wagons on all the Bills' offensive props — specifically a Buffalo receiver to take the top off the Cleveland Browns defense.

The change of scenery is bad news for a Browns secondary that has gotten gashed for chunk plays all season, allowing nearly 60% of deep passes to be completed, and giving up 13 passing plays of 24 yards or more, 10 plays of 30+ yards, and at least one in every game.

While Stefon Diggs is the unquestioned No. 1 receiver on the Bills, Gabriel Davis is the home run hitter for the team. Davis is 20th in the league with 12 targets of 20+ yards this season and ninth with six catches, with a 33.5-yard average depth of target.

Diggs should likely get the majority of attention from Cleveland's top CB Denzel Ward, leaving Davis to deal with the likes of Martin Emerson, who has allowed a 29+ yard reception in three different games.

In a climate-controlled dome, it's off to the races for Gabe Davis and the Bills... and Cleveland won't keep pace.

Gabriel Davis Prop: Longest reception Over 23.5 yards (-110)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Red Ryder 

It’s safe to say if Jameis Winston were healthy, he would likely be under center but with his back injuries, it will be another week of Andy Dalton failing this New Orleans offense. 

Dalton was awful again last week vs. the Steelers where he finished with two interceptions but likely could have had a couple more. He finished with just 174 passing yards on 17-for-27 passing but the alarming thing was the team’s pass-heavy approach.

The New Orleans Saints ran the ball just nine times last week and even with his team abandoning the run, Dalton still couldn’t stack yards vs. Pittsburgh’s No. 24-ranked pass defense in EPA/dropback.

Now the Red Rifle will face a Rams team allowing 214 passing yards per game on the season and come into the Sunday matchup healthy on the defensive side of the ball. 

I doubt Dennis Allen turns to Winston during this game, but that option is also on the table.

Andy Dalton Prop: Under 212.5 passing yards (-110)

The Moore you know

It’s Baker Mayfield time in Carolina and despite similar passing metrics as PJ Walker, Mayfield could be a very busy passer Sunday with a heavily-projected negative game script. 

Mayfield started five games in Weeks 1 through 5 and with Christian McCaffrey in the lineup, DJ Moore drew a 24% target share. Now with CMC on to greener pastures, Moore could be in for a big day vs. a Bottom-10 pass defense and a game script that could force Carolina to go pass-heavy.

Baltimore is coming off the bye and sits as double-digit favorites Sunday which is good news for Carolina’s passing volume. I’m well aware of Mayfield’s struggles as a passer, but there shouldn’t be a drop in Moore's receiving yard total because of the switch.

Last week, Moore’s receiving yard total closed at 57.5 yards in a game that saw very wet conditions. It’s looking much drier in Baltimore this week and Moore’s receiving total is five yards shorter in a game where the Panthers go from +2.5 to +13 — that's significant in terms of projecting passing volume. 

With Moore and Terrace Marshall Jr. on the outside, Moore and his 28% target share will benefit the most at this discounted total.

DJ Moore Prop: Over 52.5 receiving yards (-110)

Backing Big B

Fresh off their big win over the Eagles on Monday, Brian Robinson and the Washington Commanders' run game has an elite matchup Sunday vs. the Texans and their 27th-ranked rush defense in EPA/carry.

Robinson led the Washington backfield last week with 26 carries for 86 yards. The output wasn’t impressive but it came against a strong Philadelphia defense. In Week 11, things couldn’t be easier for the run game.

The Texans allow an average of 156 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs, 32 more yards than the next-worst team. This is the easiest team to run against and with Washington running 60% of the time last week and coming in as a 3-point road favorite, the run should be featured again Sunday.

Since suiting up in Week 5, Robinson has out-rushed and out-carried Antonio Gibson in each game. His rushing total has certainly adjusted as it sits at 63.5 after closing at 33.5 yards last week, but with the best matchup on the board for a running back with a run-heavy offense, Robinson could be looking at his first 100-yard game as a professional. 

Brian Robinson Prop: Over 63.5 rushing yards (-110)

Season to date: 81-68, +12.42u units (Risking 1 unit per play)

NFL Week 11 prop betting card

• Higgins Over 5.5 receptions (-128 at Caesars)
• Lamb Over 75.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)

     - - 

• Mooney Over 43.5 rushing yards (-110 at BetMGM)
• Davis long reception Over 23.5 yards (-110 at DraftKings)

     - - 

• Dalton Under 212.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
• Moore Over 52.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
• Robinson Over 63.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

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