NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 12: C.J. Stroud Jacks Up Jacksonville

The Week 12 odds board is arguably the best week of the NFL regular season, with three games on Thursday (even if they were all kinda duds), the inaugural NFL Black Friday game (where we don't have high hopes either), followed by the usual Sunday/Monday affairs.

That's four days out of five to bet on NFL player props... and hoo boy do I plan on taking advantage of a weekend stuffed full of football.

I've been a bit of a turkey recently with my NFL picks, but I'm expecting things to be all gravy this weekend, highlighted by a quarterback matchup that's sweeter than cherry pie and a wide receiver that's more underrated than having cornbread in your Thanksgiving spread.

(Is five Thanksgiving references in two sentences too much? I feel like it's too much. Then again, "too much" doesn't exist at Thanksgiving... right?)

Anyways, while you feasted all weekend long, I've loaded up a plate of this weekend's NFL odds and dished out a gigantic helping of my favorite Week 12 NFL player props.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Trenton Irwin Over 25.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
• Jerome Ford longest rush Over 12.5 yards (-120 at bet365)
• C.J. Stroud Over 267.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Week 12

Bending Steel

The Cincinnati Bengals offense is down a few key names (to say the least), as QB Joe Burrow is gone for the season, while WR Tee Higgins was ruled out for the third straight week.

Jake Browning is now the starting quarterback against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that plays the sixth-most man coverage in the league (per Pro Football Focus). The first thought would be that the new Cincy QB will look to star Ja'Marr Chase a lot... but Browning is not great at going deep and Chase will be shadowed by Joey Porter Jr., who has emerged as a shutdown corner with just a 42% catch rate against in man coverage this year.

That gives me pause on his yardage total of 66.5, as well as his reception total, which is 5.5 with major juice. However, there is value in looking at the other Bengals receivers that will still be taking the field — and I'm focusing on Trenton Irwin's odds as his receiving yards total was just posted at 25.5.

In the three previous games that Higgins has missed this season, Irwin has posted his three highest yardage totals of the year with 36, 54, and 60 receiving yards, and should be able to exploit the rest of the Steelers secondary with Porter focused on Chase.

Patrick Peterson, Levi Wallace, and Chandon Sullivan have been abysmal in man coverage, giving up a 61% catch rate and 16.7 yards per reception, with Pittsburgh overall sitting among the worst secondaries in the league in allowing an 18.4% explosive play rate in man coverage.

Browning also showed an early connection with Irwin in Week 11, targeting him a team-high six times after he entered following Burrow's injury, so I'm treating Irwin as the de facto WR2 (over veteran Tyler Boyd) and happily jumping on him to log at least 26 years on Sunday.

Prop: Trenton Irwin Over 25.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)

Ford's off to the races

How the Cleveland Browns deploy their running backs on a week-to-week basis is truly a mystery, which makes betting on any of their rushing props a maddening affair.

However, the Denver Broncos' run defense is so bad that I would be doing a disservice to not fade them in some way — so I'll target Cleveland in the explosive run play market and take the Over on Jerome Ford's odds for his longest run to be 13 or more yards.

Ford hasn't been the most efficient runner; he's managed over 4.0 yards per carry AND 40+ rush yards just once in his last four games, but he is the biggest chunk play threat on the roster —  his 13 runs of 10+ yards and five designed runs of 15+ yards are more than Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong Jr. combined.

Plus the Broncos run defense has allowed a league-worst 5.5 yards per carry this year — almost a half-yard worse than any other team — and after surrendering 175 yards to one of the league's weakest rushing attacks in Minnesota last week, has allowed 11 RB runs of 13+ yards in its past four games.

The pass defense, however, is the polar opposite as Denver's has held its last six opponents to just 209.8 passing yards per game with eight interceptions and 11 sacks. Browns rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson was up-and-down last week against the Steelers, so I'd expect HC Kevin Stefanski to lean heavily on his ground game and try to avoid using DTR too much against the strength of the Broncos' defense.

That means Ford should see more than last week's 12 carries worth of work, likely getting in the 17-20 range, and seeing as he's topped this number in two straight games and four of his last six, he should be able to rip another solid run on Sunday.

Prop: Jerome Ford longest rush Over 12.5 yards (-120 at bet365)
Pick made on November 24 at 12:16 p.m. ET.

Strouded in mystery

The Houston Texans are expected to be in a bit of a shootout Sunday against the Jacksonville Jaguars, with the game showing one of the highest totals of Week 12.

In trying to assess which player is the best pick for this game, the Jaguars offense seems pretty high variance week-to-week (which we no like), while Texans WR Tank Dell is taking the NFL by storm... but the presence of Nico Collins (and possibly Noah Brown) means a lot of mouths to feed (also gives me pause).

So I'll go with the biggest darling in Houston and bet on C.J. Stroud's odds to go Over his passing yards total, which can be found as low as 267.5.

I probably don't need to tell you how good the Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite has been... but I'ma tell you anyway because CJ has been that dude.

After a lull in Weeks 5-7, Stroud has averaged 387.3 pass yards over his last three contests and now has topped his Week 12 passing total in six of his last nine games. In addition to that trio of receivers likely at his disposal, Stroud also has a capable TE in Dalton Schultz as another weapon for him to attack the Jaguars pass defense.

And through the air is how you beat the Jags as, they have allowed 292.9 passing yards per game against teams that didn't have Will Levis, Kenny Pickett, and Desmond Ridder under center (aka competent passing attacks). They play zone defense at a Top-5 rate, sitting middle of the pack in defensive success rate, catch rate allowed, and yards per coverage snap, but struggle to generate pressure vs. opposing QBs — not a great mix against Stroud and an explosive Houston passing attack.

The Jaguars are in the bottom third of the league in pass-rush win rate and pressure rate and Stroud is No. 1 in aDot, No. 2 in yards per attempt, and 10th in big-time throw percentage when unpressured (per Pro Football Focus).

Houston's running game has suddenly sprung to life in the last two weeks, but Jacksonville is one of the league's elite rush defenses, so the offense will likely go back to predominantly running through Stroud's arm.

Projections range as high as 291 for the Texans star, so with most books offering this at 271.5, there's nothing to "Squabble" about with taking Stroud at 267.5 on Sunday.

Prop: C.J. Stroud Over 267.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Pick made on November 23 at 4:17 p.m. ET.

Pitt stop

You could make the argument for betting on either Josh Downs or Michael Pittman Jr. odds this week, as the Indianapolis Colts receivers have a tasty matchup in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but I'm going to go with the veteran Pittman — and the Over on his receiving yards at 69.5 — as I like the matchup a little bit more.

First, Downs is still battling a knee injury; I'm not entirely sure how many snaps he'll play on Sunday, and considering he's more a short/intermediate threat, would require a lot more work to hit the 50-yard mark. Meanwhile, Pittman is healthy and comes out of the bye with at least eight catches in four of his last five games and 76 yards per game in that span.

He also leads the Colts in deep (20+ air yard) targets and aDOT, and faces a Tampa secondary that is banged up (top CBs Carlton Davis and Jamel Dean are both questionable to play, along with LBs Devin White and Lavonte David) and already was among the worst teams in the league in explosive pass play rate allowed.

The Bucs play man-to-man coverage at a league-average rate (per Pro Football Focus), so Pittman's ability to stretch the field should result in at least one chunk player — especially if he gets man coverage against TB's depth corners. Tampa has also allowed the opponent's most-targeted WR to record 87+ yards in three of its last four games (and eight pass catchers to hit 70+ in that span). 

Industry projections range as high as 82 yards for Pittman this week, with an average of about 75 yards, giving us a little buffer for him to work with.

Prop: Michael Pittman Jr. Over 69.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Pick made on November 23 at 2:17 p.m. ET.

Slippery Char

Sitting as a touchdown underdog at home doesn't say much about the Seattle Seahawks' chances of winning Thursday night, but that's not going to stop me from betting on Zach Charbonnet odds as I feel both the opportunity and game script should mean a busy evening for the rookie RB — and him going Over his receptions total of 3.5.

No. 1 RB Kenneth Walker III is doubtful to play after leaving last week's game after the first drive with an oblique injury. Charbonnet, who already had significantly increased his snap count the past few weeks and had emerged as the third-down back... and was elevated to the every-down back after Walker's injury: He played 18 rushing snaps (to just two for now-backup DeeJay Dallas) and 37 passing snaps (vs. five for Dallas), catching all six of his targets.

Now, there is some concern that maybe he will take over Walker's role as the early-down guy and Dallas will get the passing work, but I don't anticipate a drastic change in gameplan (or workload) from this Sunday with limited practice time on a short week. 

Charbonnet has 10 catches (on 11 targets) over his last two games, and considering the San Francisco 49ers — who allow the seventh-most receptions per game to RBs — will likely be leading most of this game, the Seahawks should be chasing points and shift to a pass-heavy game script in the latter stages.

Finally, speaking of passing: Seattle QB Geno Smith is trending to play despite being a limited participant in practice with an injury to his throwing elbow — I really don't know how deep he'll be able to throw through four quarters, or how accurate he will be, and in the face of a terrifying 49ers pass rush... getting rid of the ball quickly to a check-down option may be the safest (and most probable) option.

This line opened as short as -110 at some books, so being able to nab this at plus money makes it even more of a value.

Prop: Zach Charbonnet Over 3.5 receptions (+105 at DraftKings)
Pick made on November 22 at 5:53 p.m. ET.

In charge of Commanders

Like a dog biting a porcupine, sometimes I just don't learn. Two straight weeks I bet on Dallas Cowboys running backs... and two straight weeks I had a mouth full of quills.

So this week, I'm looking at the main focus of the Cowboys offense and betting on Dak Prescott odds as he faces an abysmal Washington Commanders defense.

We'll forgive Prescott (and the entirety of the Dallas offense) for underwhelming stats last week against Carolina; it was an obvious trap game with a short week coming up... and the offense didn't really need to work that hard in what was still a 23-point victory.

In Week 12, however, I'm expecting the Dak Attack to be back, as he averaged around 35 pass attempts, 25 completions, and 340 yards per game the four weeks prior — with eight completions of 30+ yards over that stretch and at least one 40+ yarder in three of those games.

Against a Commanders defense that ranks just 23rd in pass rush win rate (and shipped out its two best pass rushers at the trade deadline), the odds are heavily in favor of the Cowboys passing attack. Furthermore, Washington owns the second-worst aDOT and is giving up the third-most pass yards allowed per game — most recently conceding six completions of 21+ yards to Tommy DeVito (including a 40-yarder).

I love Dak's chances of connecting on at least one more deep bomb and going Over his longest completion line of 37.5 yards. Make no mistake about it: Dallas is a pass-first offense as Dak has CeeDee Lamb (one of the most unstoppable receivers in football) and veterans Brandin Cooks and Michael Gallup going down the field. The Cowboys are about to come out full throttle to get an early start on Thanksgiving dinner.

The Cowboys offense walked on Sunday vs. Carolina so they could run Thursday against the Commanders — and like our Dak Prescott odds and props spotlight also suggests, I think they're going to run... down the field.

Prop: Dak Prescott longest completion Over 37.5 yards (-115 at bet365)
Pick made on November 22 at 3:58 p.m. ET.

NFL Week 12 prop betting card

• Dak Prescott longest completion Over 37.5 yards (-115)
• Zach Charbonnet Over 3.5 receptions (+105)
• Michael Pittman Jr. Over 69.5 receiving yards (-110)
• C.J. Stroud Over 267.5 passing yards (-114)
• Jerome Ford long rush Over 12.5 passing yards (-120)
• Trenton Irwin Over 25.5 receiving yards (-110)

Last week: 2-4
Season to date: 27-31, -4.73 units

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