NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 15: Going Over a Rookie's Rushing Total

Getting NFL football three times in four days is a real treat, and I'm looking to cap off the weekend with more of my favorite NFL player prop picks for Sunday.

I'm looking at a rushing total for one of the fastest quarterbacks making a start in Week 15 as well as hitting an Over that the books should have adjusted two weeks ago.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Ridder Over 23.5 rushing yards (-115)
• Henry Over 13.5 receiving yards (-115)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Sunday

Ridder me this 

Atlanta will start rookie quarterback Desmond Ridder this week on the road in New Orleans, vs. a Saints defense that Marcus Mariota ran for a season-high 72 yards on 12 carries against in Week 1. Now, Ridder and his 4.52 speed (faster than Jalen Hurts) will take to the indoor track and look to top his 23.5-yard rushing total.

In college, Ridder rushed for 361 yards on 100 carries in his final year, but bettors shouldn’t be scared off by that 3.6 yards per carry, as sacks count against rushing totals in college. Ridder can move and showed his dual-threat ability in the preseason this year.

In Ridder’s first NFL action, in preseason Week 1 indoors vs. the Lions, he took six carries for 59 yards (a long of 20 yards) as he played in all but the first offensive series of the game. He spent more time working on his passing game in the following preseason games but once the game begins Sunday, Ridder will use his tools, and that includes his legs.

The Falcons are a 4-point road dog, so game script and scrambling are in our favor here. Arthur Smith also has plenty of designed QB rushing plays in the playbook, as Mariota rushed for 248 yards on 58 designed runs across 13 starts this season while also soaking up 20% of the team’s rushes.

The game could be fast for the third-rounder, which should also benefit the Over vs. a defense that is in the Bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed per game to QBs (24.2). A slower Mariota averaged 34 rushing yards per game this season and topped 24 yards on the ground in nine of his 13 games.

If Ridder shows off his legs Sunday, we could see a very decent adjustment to the Over on his rushing total next week.

Desmond Ridder Prop: Over 23.5 rushing yards (-115)

King of the air 

Derrick Henry finally got his rushing game going last week with 121 yards on 17 carries, but he was also effective in the passing game catching three of his five targets for 34 yards. Over his last four games, Henry’s pass-catching role has expanded with 10 catches (13 targets) for 166 yards.

The great news for bettors is that his receiving total has not been adjusted despite three Overs in four games. Books are still giving us a total of 13.5 receiving yards after closing at 15.5 yards in back-to-back games. 

The Chargers are a great matchup for the Titans' run game, but teams have been stacking the box on Henry of late and forcing this awful passing game to beat them — hence the integration of Henry into the passing game. 

Defensive leader and safety, Derwin James, is also likely to miss his second straight game for the Bolts, which could go a long way in bringing Henry down in space as he leads the team in tackles per game. 

With a new, successful role in the passing game, coupled with the books’ failure to adjust the line, this is an easy Over and could be a one-and-done. If Tennessee trails (3-point dog), this could be an easy one and possibly worth a milestone play on the indoor track at SoFi.

Derrick Henry Prop: Over 13.5 receiving yards (-115)

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Foreman affairs

Don’t look now, but the Panthers are more than a 1-point favorite for the first time since Week 1. Since Sam Darnold has taken over the offense, the Panthers have been run-heavy, with a pass rate over expected (PROE) of -15%. 

It has been the Chuba Hubbard and D’Onta Foreman show, as the two running backs have 76 carries over the last two games, with Foreman getting 59% of the carries. While Hubbard was the only back to find the end zone with a one-yard plunge last week, bettors shouldn't be afraid to hit Foreman's touchdown market.

Both backs have been getting red-zone looks, as Foreman has 11 carries + targets inside the 20 over the last two games, with Hubbard getting six. Third-stringer Raheem Blackshear also found the end zone last week, but this is still Foreman’s backfield. Despite not getting a score last week, he still has the highest probability of finding paydirt in Week 15.

The Steelers are allowing 0.9 TDs per game to opposing running backs. Since Week 10, they have the 20th-ranked rush defense per EPA/rush and success rate. 

We don’t have to overthink this bet, as Foreman is projected to see his third straight 20-carry game with the majority of the red-zone touches. I’d play this to even money, but at +135, this is a banger.

D’Onta Foreman Prop: Anytime touchdown (+135)

Fields day

The week after the bye is always a great place to dig for some prop bets, and that’s where I’m at with Justin Fields.

The Chicago quarterback came back from a shoulder injury in Week 13 vs. the Packers and ran for 71 yards on six carries and threw for 254 yards. Fields was dealing with an illness at practice this week, but Matt Eberflus has said he should be good to go in a showdown with Jalen Hurts.

Fields’ carry total is 10.5 at even money for the Over, which is a number he’s topped in five of his last seven games. Entering the game as a 9-point home underdog, there will be plenty of opportunities to take off on Sunday.

Chase Claypool didn't practice on Wednesday, hurting Fields’ passing game. The Eagles also allow one of the lowest completion rates in the NFL and are giving up a league-low 179 passing yards per game. Fields will have to create more than usual at Soldier Field, which is also projecting for 14 mph winds. Passing will be difficult Sunday, and that should increase the QB rushing percentages for the Bears. 

THE BLITZ is projecting Fields for nearly 13 carries, giving bettors a couple of carries of value on his Over 10.5 total that closed at 11.5 in his previous game.

The illness is likely something Fields' can get over by Sunday. With him chasing Lamar Jackson’s single-season QB rushing total and needing 302 yards over the final games to do so, he'll be incentivized to take off against a weak Eagles' run defense.

It’s the attempts over the yards for me this week. 

Justin Fields Prop: Over 10.5 rushing attempts (+105)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Married with Pittman

The Vikings’ defense has given up at least 400 yards of offense in five straight games. Although they face Matt Ryan and the Colts on Sunday, Jeff Saturday’s team did have an extra week to prepare for this game while the Vikes are on the short week.

Ryan isn’t a quarterback I’d trust starting in my fantasy playoffs, but Jared Goff, Mike White, and Mac Jones have all passed for at least 330 yards against this defense over the last three games.

Due to the possibility of Ryan not finishing this game, I’m avoiding his passing yardage and instead looking to the Indianapolis receivers for my best play on the Saturday opener.

Over the last four games since Ryan took over the starting role (again), Michael Pittman Jr. has a 25% target share, which was actually 30% before a tough matchup vs. the Cowboys that left him with two catches on four targets for 16 yards. In the three games before that, he averaged nine targets and 6.7 catches per game in Weeks 10 to 12.

The Vikings’ secondary won’t give Pittman as much trouble as the Cowboys. Indy's No.1 wideout should see more targets Saturday afternoon vs. a defense that allows the most receptions to opposing WRs (15.2) on the most targets (22.2).

Vikings defense last 5 games:

PPG: 30.4 (NFL rank: 32)
YPG: 460.6 (NFL rank: 32)
20+yard pass plays: 23 (NFL rank: 31)

— Kevin Seifert (@SeifertESPN) December 12, 2022

Pittman’s reception total sits at 5.5, which is a number he’s topped in six of his last seven games and includes three games vs. the three best DVOA pass defenses in football (DAL, PHI, and NE).

Pittman ranks 11th in targets per game (8.9), fourth in routes ran, and has one of the worst aDOTs (6.4 yards, 94th), meaning he is getting targeted on shorter routes that have a higher catch rate. He’s also averaging 6.9 receptions per game indoors this season (nine games) and 7.5 grabs per game if you take out the Dallas game in Week 13.  

Michael Pittman Jr. Prop: Over 5.5 receptions (-120)

Dabbin’ on Dobbins

There aren’t a lot of props open for the Browns vs. Ravens game, but I’m heading right to the TD market and shopping around for the best price for a J.K. Dobbins score.

Dobbins returned from injury last week after missing six games on the IR and looked fully healthy vs. the Steelers’ defense that he torched for 120 rushing yards and a TD on 15 carries. He took 43% of the team’s snaps and out-carried Gus Edwards 15 to 13. Edwards managed 66 yards on his attempts, but the more explosive Dobbins was still more efficient on the ground. 

According to Next Gen Stats, Dobbins even took eight carries for 75 yards and a score vs. a stacked box.

The Ravens had just three trips to the red zone last week, and Dobbins was the only running back to get a carry inside the 15. He turned a run from the 4-yard line into six points for his team’s only TD on the Ravens’ third drive. 

Getting the No.1 back on a team that rushes the ball at over 50% provides great TD value at +225. Cleveland ranks 30th in rush DVOA and dead last in DVOA/rush. The Browns also allow 1.3 rushing TDs per game which is the fourth-worst mark in football.

With the Baltimore defense ranking as one of the best units since Week 10 — fifth in EPA/play and third in success rate — combined with the awkwardness of the new Cleveland offense, this game should avoid a negative game script for the Ravens, keeping them in run mode for 60 minutes.

With one game under his belt after a length layoff, Dobbins could see even more work this week and will look to build off his 8.0 yards-per-carry performance. 

J.K. Dobbins Prop: Anytime touchdown (+225)

Bet the number

Here is a good example of betting on the number and not the narrative.

Many people will be talking about how Tua Tagovailoa struggles in the cold conditions and how bad he looked last week. Still, his passing total is at 242.5 yards, which is three yards shorter than Mike White’s total last week vs. the Bills (in conditions that were also awful). Tua might not pass for 300 yards in Orchard Park on Saturday, but I think we've seen too much of a market adjustment here. 

Tua’s passing total is a season-low, and a number Mike White, Jacoby Brissett, Kirk Cousins, and Kenny Pickett have all topped in Buffalo while averaging 319 passing yards.

Don’t be duped...

Brandon Staley outcoached Mike McDaniel last week as Tua struggled to find open receivers. The Chargers' shorthanded defense used a triangle approach with plenty of inside leverage, taking the middle of the field away from an offense that has been gaining chunks of yardage in that area. 

Dan Orlovsky explains it much better.

The Dolphins fans should watch this

The Dolphins organizations needs to see this—and adjust. ASAP

Touchscreen Tuesday with @realrclark25#NFLLIVE pic.twitter.com/b3lG1DIpUA

— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) December 13, 2022

Football is a game of adjustments, and it looks like teams have caught up to McDaniel's offense. If a Chargers’ team that was missing its best player in Derwin James and starting slot corner can hold Tagovailoa to just 10 completions in a game that Miami played from behind for nearly 45 minutes, the Bills and Orchard Park's weather have a great chance to limit this offense as well. 

The Dolphins were apparently struggling with the thermostat Monday night in SoFi Stadium and had heaters for the bench. A trip to upper state New York that will have double-digit winds, possible snow, and 24-degree weather could be bad news for Tua, who has struggled in the cold.

The Miami quarterback has a 61.4 QB rating in the four coldest games he’s played in, with two of those coming in Buffalo. He’s 0-4 straight up in those games with a TD/INT ratio of 2/5, a 54% completion rate, and an average of 211 passing yards per game. Saturday could be the coldest game of his professional career.

With defensive coach Sean McDermott likely taking notes from Monday night, the uncomfortable passing conditions, and one less day to prep for this defense that ranks seventh in DVOA pass defense, Tagovialoa should struggle Saturday night...

A convincing argument, no? 

But it all means nothing if Tua's passing yards total is a 50-point correction from last week. That's shorter than Mike White’s passing total vs. this defense last week and only 14 yards less than Jacoby Brissett’s passing total in Buffalo in the Bills’ previous home game. 

Tua has a better coach and more weapons this time than in his previous cold games, which all came in 2020 and 2021. 

Don’t be fooled by persuasive narratives, and always bet the number. The game script alone makes this Under a very risky play. 

Tua Tagovailoa Prop: Over 241.5 passing yards (-104)

NFL Week 15 prop betting card

• Ridder Over 23.5 rushing yards (-115)
• Henry Over 13.5 receiving yards (-115)

     - - 

• Foreman anytime TD (+135)
• Fields Over 10.5 carries (+105)

     - - 

• Pittman Jr. Over 5.5 receptions (-120)
• Dobbins anytime touchdown (+225)
• Tagovailoa Over 241.5 passing yards (-104)

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