NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 15: Romeo Doubs Does the Bucs Defense Dirty

Another week, another positive outcome as we've now finished in the black for three straight weeks as we hit the playoff stretch of the NFL season.

The Week 15 odds board features football across four days — adding a Saturday tripleheader to the mix — giving us a nice balance and cadence for betting on NFL player props.

I started off the weekend right by going 3-0 with my free NFL picks on Saturday — and look to keep cashing in on the NFL odds for the Sunday slate as I'm going back to a QB passing prop that won for me last week, along with a red-hot WR continuing to torment some red birds, and a Packers' pass-catcher ready to rip it up at Lambeau.

So sit back, strap up, and let's keep this train rolling with my favorite NFL player props for Week 15.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Romeo Doubs Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
• Jaylen Warren Over 17.5 receiving yards (-130 at bet365)
• Deebo Samuel Over 57.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
  

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Week 15

Got me cheesed

One of my favorite insta-bets right now is "wide receivers against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers" because boy... they are bad right now.

So with the Green Bay Packers hosting TB on Sunday, and possibly both Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks sidelined, I'm betting on Romeo Doubs' odds to go Over his yardage total of 44.5.

How bad has Tampa's secondary been? In Week 14, Drake London became the 10th WR to register 100+ yards against Tampa Bay this season, and here is what other opposing pass catchers have done to TB recently:

• Atlanta (23rd in dropback EPA/play): 172 yards to London
  
  
• Carolina (30th): 69 yards to Jonathan Mingo, 56 to DJ Chark
  
  
• Indianapolis (19th): 107 yards to Michael Pittman
  
  
• San Francisco (first): 156 yards to Brandon Aiyuk, 89 to George Kittle 63 to Deebo Samuel
  
  
• Houston (eighth): 153 yards to Noah Brown, 130 to Dalton Schultz, 114 to Tank Dell
  
  
• Buffalo (fourth): 92 to Khalil Shakir, 87 to Gabe Davis, 70 to Stefon Diggs, 65 to Dalton Kincaid

There was one good defensive game in that seven-game stretch (they shut down Tennessee), but otherwise the theme is that bad passing attacks have found success... and good passing attacks have utterly shredded the Buccos — and the result is a defense yielding just over 300 passing yards per game in that span.

Plus, the Packers have been one of the hottest aerial attacks in the league as of late, as Jordan Love is third in the league in passing yards over the last five weeks, and Doubs has been significantly better at Lambeau, averaging 62.3 yards per game (vs. 27 per game on the road).

Doubs' yardage total is a bit shorter than his teammate Jayden Reed (52.5) but with better numbers at home and the potential for plenty of targets, I'm leaning on this Cheesehead to best exploit a juicy matchup on Sunday.

Prop: Romeo Doubs Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on December 15 at 3:58 p.m. ET

Regulator

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren has seen his receiving totals slow down a bit compared to his early-season numbers, but all that's done is help us get a better number on Jaylen Warren's odds for his receiving yards (compared to a month or two prior) — and with a matchup against the Indianapolis Colts on tap for Saturday, I'm taking the over on his total of 17.5 yards.

Warren averaged 28.1 receiving yards per game from Weeks 2-9, with 19+ yards in six of those games, but has averaged 12.6 ypg over his last five contests. However, he's coming off a Week 14 game where he had four catches for 29 yards, and he's still the primary receiving RB, getting about two-thirds of the backfield passing targets during this lull.

He also has a plum matchup against a Colts team that has struggled to contain RBs out of the backfield: After Cincy RB2 Chase Brown went 3/80 against them last week, Indy enters Week 15 allowing the fifth-most receiving yards per game to RBs (42.7), and have allowed at least one RB to log 18+ receiving yards in 11 of 13 games this season.

Industry projections have Warren in the 20-24 yards range, with a consensus forecast of 21.4, giving us a couple of yards worth of buffer. Add in that the Colts have also given up at least one 10+ yard reception to an RB in 11 of 13 games as well, and there's a better-than-normal chance Warren's speed could get us past this total on one play alone.

Prop: Jaylen Warren Over 17.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on December 15 at 10:32 a.m. ET

For the birds

There are several different directions I could go in for betting on the San Francisco 49ers offense this Sunday when they face the Arizona Cardinals, but I'm choosing to focus on Deebo Samuel odds, as he finally appears healthy (which is bad for Arizona but very, very good for us).

The San Fran weapon (I mean, how else do you describe him?) has averaged 101.8 receiving yards per game over his last four contests and has logged 63+ yards in each of those games.

His current hot streak has me leaning toward him over teammate Brandon Aiyuk, who has been a little feast-or-famine as of late, as well as the fact that his receiving yards total is about 10 yards shorter at 57.5 yards. 

But let's be honest: They should both have a big day against Arizona, which is in the Bottom 10 of the league in yards allowed per game to wide receivers and has allowed five opponents to hit 60+ receiving yards in the last three games.

Schematically, this is also a bad matchup, as Arizona plays the fourth-highest amount of zone in the NFL (per Pro Football Focus), with the third-worst yards against per coverage snap, and Samuel is in the Top 10 among all WR in catch rate, yards per reception, and yards per route run against zone.

Industry projection models range as high as 74 yards for Deebo, averaging around 64 yards, while QB Brock Purdy is projected for as much as 280 pass yards, lending credence to a big day through the air.

The only concern is that this becomes a blowout and we only get 3-ish quarters of action from Samuel, but I think he can — and will — do enough damage in even that time to cruise past this number.

Prop: Deebo Samuel Over 57.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on December 14 at 12:06 p.m. ET

Back to the well

One of my winners last week came courtesy of taking the Over on Matthew Stafford's passing yards against a formidable Baltimore Ravens defense... and I'm doubling down the Los Angeles Rams QB again in Week 15 and betting on Matthew Stafford's odds once again with a much easier matchup.

Despite facing the NFL's second-ranked passing defense, in miserable wet and windy weather on the road, Stafford went for 294 passing yards. That comes on the heels of a 279-yard effort in Week 13... against the league's No. 1-ranked passing defense.

Now, he returns home to SoFi Stadium, where he'll welcome the Washington Commanders to town, who allow the fourth-most passing yards per game in the league (277.9) and have surrendered 307 pass yards per game over their last four.

Stafford has historically struggled under pressure, due to his lack of mobility, but he should also be facing plenty of clean pockets as the Commanders' pass rush has fallen off a cliff after trading Montez Sweat and Chase Young, having one or zero sacks in four of their last five games and pressuring the QB on just 24.5% off all dropbacks during that span.

Some projection models range as high as 280 yards for Stafford on Sunday, and while most operators are posting the Rams QB at 268.5, but you can still find him at 263.5 at FanDuel — which is the number I'll jump on as I'll happily take the extra handful of yards.

Prop: Matthew Stafford Over 263.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Pick made on December 14 at 11:13 a.m. ET

Gibbs gets goin'

The Denver Broncos defense has been much improved in the back half of the season, but it's the secondary that's taken the greatest strides while the run defense can still be exploited — specifically in giving up explosive plays — so with the Detroit Lions as their next opponent, I'm looking at Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs' odds to target, specifically his longest rush prop, which is currently set at 13.5 yards.

Gibbs splits snaps with backfield mate David Montgomery, with the veteran Montgomery generally getting a few more carries, but the rookie is the far more explosive runner, with the better yards per carry and average yards after contact, more runs of 10+ yards (18 total), and a league-leading eight runs of 20+ yards.

He has a run of 21+ yards in six of his last seven games and at least one 14+ yard run in each of those contests, while Denver gave up 15 runs of 10+ yards over a four-game stretch (with 3+ runs in each game) before keeping the Chargers' toothless rush attack in check last week. 

Detroit's rushing attack has been one of the NFL's best all season, sitting fifth with 137.5 yards per game and third with 4.7 yards per carry, but it's been even better as of late in averaging almost 160 yards per game on 5.3 ypc over the last six games.

Gibbs' rushing attempt prop currently is at 10.5 yards, putting him around his highest total over the last four games, but with Detroit QB Jared Goff in a bit of a rut — and the strength of Denver's D being the secondary and pass rush — I could see a heavier reliance on the running game and possibly even a couple extra carries for Gibbs.

Some books have already moved on this prop, sitting as short as -150, which makes me believe a move to 14.5 is likely in the days leading up to kickoff. You can still find this around -130 at some operators, however, so I'm jumping on it now before the price (or line) shifts unfavorably.

Prop: Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 13.5 yards (-130 at bet365)
Pick made on December 13 at 5:58 p.m. ET

Sweet as mulled wine

Let's pour one out for the Passtronaut, Joshua Dobbs, whose fairytale run came crashing down last week as he went 10/23 for 63 yards — and sent Justin Jefferson to the hospital — and got benched in the fourth quarter of the Minnesota Vikings scintillating 3-0 win.

Vikings Head Coach Kevin O'Connell wasted no time announcing that Dobbs would remain on the bench, instead opting to start journeyman Nick Mullens... and I'm going to back the Minnesota QB this Saturday and take the Over on Nick Mullens' odds to throw for more than 232.5 passing yards.

Mullens played two actual series in Sunday's win, completing 9-of-13 passes for 83 yards while leaning on tight end T.J. Hockenson.

Granted, he did this against a very bad Raiders defense — this will be just his second NFL start since 2020 — but he completed 21-of-25 passes in spot duty last year for the Vikings and this offense still has several weapons available in Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and possibly Jefferson, who is considered day-to-day with a chest injury.

They're also facing a Cincinnati Bengals secondary that has given up a league-worst 301 passing yards over their last eight games, with at least 240 pass yards in each of those contests.

We've seen plenty of backups and former castoffs have passing success in the past few weeks (Joe Flacco, Gardner Minshew, and current Cincy QB Jake Browning), so it's not outlandish to expect Mullens to step in and look competent in an otherwise solid passing offense.

He's a better natural than Dobbs (admittedly a low bar), and industry projections range as high as 267 yards for the veteran in Week 15, averaging around 256 yards.

Minnesota can't really run, so they'll have to pass — and I think Mullens will be up to the task.

Prop: Nick Mullens Over 232.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on December 13 at 1:16 p.m. ET.

NFL Week 15 prop betting card

• Nick Mullens Over 232.5 passing yards (-110)
• Jahmyr Gibbs longest rush Over 13.5 yards (-130)
• Matthew Stafford Over 263.5 passing yards (-114)
• Deebo Samuel Over 57.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Jaylen Warren Over 17.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Romeo Doubs Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110)

Last week: 5-1
Season to date: 36-34, +2.17 units

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