The Week 17 prop card is complete, and I've added two more value-laced plays using splits/matchup and contract incentives as the main point of handicapping. Let's make some money with my NFL prop picks ahead of Sunday's kickoff.
Latest NFL prop picks
- Goff Over 267.5 passing yards (-110)
- Watt to record a sack (-135)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
Looking to bet on some NFL action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet of up to $1,000! Sign Up Now
B) New users at DraftKings can bet $5 and get $150 in free bets! Sign Up Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of NFL promo codes for 2022.
NFL prop picks for Sunday
Goff the record
It’s been a couple of weeks, but Jared Goff will return to Ford Field, where he is averaging 277 passing yards and has thrown for at least 320 yards in four of his last six games, on Sunday.
Among all @NFL QBs in December, @Lions QB @JaredGoff16 was:
— Detroit Lions PR (@LionsPR) December 28, 2022
- 1st in INTs (0)
- t-1st in 300-yd. games (3)
- 2nd in QB rating (109.3)
- 2nd in passing yds. (1,277)
- 2nd in passing 1st downs (68)
- t-3rd in 25+ yd. passes (9)
- t-4th in passing TDs (9)
- 5th in completions (106) pic.twitter.com/igG2QCT4kp
Goff is coming off a 355-yard performance vs. the Panthers last week and now gets a pass defense that ranks dead last in EPA/dropback since Week 9 in the Chicago Bears.
The Bears have lost eight straight and are allowing nearly 33 points per game over that stretch. They have six defensive backs injured or on IR, and that includes five players who saw significant snaps.
This game also has the potential to be a shootout, as the 52-point total is indicating. These are the two most generous defenses in terms of points allowed, sitting 31st and 32nd. Detroit is a Top 10 team in terms of pace of play and runs the third-fastest offense when leading by seven or more points. This game should see plenty of plays.
The Lions have also been passing more of late, with a 62% pass rate over the last three weeks, which is a big difference for a team that, on the season, passes at 56%.
This is the same passing total Goff saw in his last home game vs. the Vikings, where he threw for 330 on 27-for-39 passing. His passer rating is 20 points higher at home and he is completing over 3% more of his passes indoors this season.
Jared Goff Prop: Over 267.5 passing yards (-110)
100,000 reasons
Cards defensive lineman J.J. Watt announced he will retire at the end of the season, but he has a million reasons to finish out the season strong.
Watt has already earned $900,000 for recording nine sacks on the season but could turn that into a cool milli if he records his 10th QB takedown of the season. The chance of that happening this week vs. Desmond Ridder and the Falcons is very probable.
The sack bonuses are through the incentives on his current contract and something bettors should be looking at as the season winds down.
Over his first two NFL starts, Atlanta’s rookie QB has taken six sacks and struggled to break decent runs when scrambling. He has 46 yards on 10 rushes, but 18 of those came on one play. Football Outsiders ranks the Falcons 26th in pass protection and 27th in adjusted sack rate.
With the 49ers on deck for Week 18, Watt might have more incentive to collect his $100k this week in a much better matchup vs. a rookie quarterback. The Falcons currently have four linemen on the IR and another injured.
The depth is weak, and Watt could see plenty of right tackle Kaleb McGary, who grades as one of the best run-blocking tackles but is a below-average pass blocker.
J.J. Watt Prop: To record a sack (-135 at bet365)
NFL prop picks for Saturday
Changes in Denver
It was a disaster for the Broncos last Saturday as Russell Wilson's play finally had some results — although not positive ones. Head coach Nathaniel Hackett got sacked following the blowout loss to the Rams and Jerry Rosburg steps in as the interim. His background is mostly in special teams so I doubt the offense will get too creative and might even get more conservative with Wilson’s struggles.
Rosburg hasn’t announced who will be calling plays, but considering the Broncos were in full pads at practice Thursday, we should expect a bigger fight from Denver this week vs. the Chiefs.
Jerry Rosburg had the Broncos in full pads for Thursday’s practice.
— Zac Stevens (@ZacStevensDNVR) December 29, 2022
“I like football practice” pic.twitter.com/O8uWSdnq4Y
All of this could mean another big workload for running back Latavius Murray. His rushing total is 45.5 yards, 15 yards shorter than last week, and is being priced this short in large to being a 12.5-point underdog. If Denver can keep this game competitive, which I think is possible considering what’s happened over the last seven days, this could be an easy Over.
Since Week 11, Murray has seen 73% of the running back carries. He got a lighter workload last week with the Broncos trailing by 17 points early and Chase Edmonds returning, but the path for double-digit carries for Murray is legit for a more motivated Denver team.
Murray saw just eight carries for 32 yards in the last meeting, but Kansas City jumped out to a huge lead early. This 45.5 rushing total already has the game script and Edmonds’ snaps priced in, but what not be priced in is the possibility of Denver going run-heavy with the old-school interim head coach.
Wilson’s struggles could also force Rosburg to run the ball more. Last week is about as big of an embarrassment as a professional football team can face and their best effort of the season could come Sunday.
Latavius Murray Prop: Over 45.5 rushing yards (-111)
Check it down to Najee
Najee Harris saw plenty of action in the passing game last week, and with how stout the Baltimore defense has been against the run of late (No.2 EPA/rush), Pittsburgh might have to go back to the air to get its running back involved Sunday.
Harris saw a season-high nine targets last week which he turned into six catches for 43 yards — all season-highs. The RB also ran a route on over 60% of the dropbacks and 23% of Kenny Pickett’s target share.
We likely won’t see numbers like that this week considering the passing conditions were awful last week, but with a receiving total of 11.5 yards, Harris could certainly top this total in any game script and with one or two catches.
The Ravens allow 43.3 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs, ranking as the seventh-most in football. Nobody is running successfully against the Ravens, and even in the previous meeting three weeks ago, Harris ran for 2.8 yards per carry but also saw three targets which he turned into two grabs and 17 yards.
Harris has seen at least three targets in nine of his 15 games and has good-to-great pass-catching skills. He averaged 27.5 receiving yards per game a season ago, and with Pickett already having two concussions on the season, the short passing game could be something that we see more consistently going forward. We’re also getting a back that doesn’t come off the field with Harris.
Week 16 RB Snap Leaders
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) December 26, 2022
- James Conner, 97%
- Saquon Barkley, 92%
- Rhamondre Stevenson, 91%
- Josh Jacobs, 81%
- Dalvin Cook, 79%
- Cam Akers, 77%
- Christian McCaffrey, 75%
- Derrick Henry, 74%
- Najee Harris, 71%
- Travis Etienne/Alvin Kamara, 70%
- David Montgomery, 68%
Baltimore will likely be without defensive end Calais Campbell which is beneficial to Harris as Campbell is their most experienced and highest-rated D-lineman.
Najee Harris Prop: Over 11.5 receiving yards (-110)
NFL prop picks for Friday
Walker it off
Kenneth Walker was a busy bee in Week 16, with 28 total touches including 26 carries. This is pretty impressive, considering the Seahawks trailed 17-0 late in the second quarter before heading to the locker room down 17-3.
After missing Week 14 due to an ankle injury and being eased back into the mix in Week 15 (12 carries) vs. a tough 49ers defense, Walker saw the second-most touches out of any player last week. He'll face a Jets defense this week that's easier to run against than pass and has seen an average of 30.3 carries per game over the last three weeks and 28.1 on the season.
Walker’s carry total has opened at 16.5 and should close above this number come Sunday (though it has dropped to 15.5 by Friday morning). This game should have a neutral-to-positive game script for the home side, which will keep the rookie in run mode for 60 minutes. THE BLITZ is projecting 20.4 carries and if Walker can get 26 carries in a game with a negative game script like last week, another 20-carry game in a projected tight game is highly probable.
Walker was sidelined at practice on Wednesday but has played through this injury for two straight weeks and the rest isn’t very concerning. If he gets in a full practice, this total will move north.
Kenneth Walker Prop: Over 15.5 carries (-132)
Fournette it be
Last week was a great time to jump on Leonard Fournette (and fade Rachaad White) as the veteran back took a bigger share in the workload and finished with 29 touches to White’s 11. Fournette out-snapped the rookie 49 to 29 which was the biggest share difference since Week 9.
Notable RBs who played the heavier side of a snap share:
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) December 26, 2022
- Leonard Fournette, 63%
- Tyler Allgeier, 60%
- Jeff Wilson, 60%
- AJ Dillon, 59%
- Royce Freeman, 57%
- Devin Singletary, 57%
- D'Andre Swift, 56%
- Nick Chubb, 54%
- Tony Pollard, 54%
- Isiah Pacheco, 49%
Now the Bucs return home as a 3-point favorite and are getting healthier on the offensive line with Tristan Whirfs returning last week and tackle Donovan Smith practicing this week. Fournette should see another sizeable workload in a must-win game for the Bucs and I’m taking the Over 73.5 total yards on the running back Sunday. No back had more touches than Fournette in Week 16.
This is a number he nearly topped on the ground (72 rushing yards) and in the air (90 yards on 10 targets) last week. With the Bucs playing at the fastest pace in football, there will be plenty of plays Sunday, and Fournette getting another 20 touches looks like a good bet as the Bucs could lean heavily on the veteran again with so much on the line and Brady throwing multiple picks in three straight.
I’d play this all the way to 82.5 yards and if this market isn’t available to you, I think his Over 42.5 rushing yards has a better chance of hitting than his Over 30.5 receiving yards, which is nine yards longer than last week.
Leonard Fournette Prop: Over 73.5 total yards (-114)
Cam session
I’m not expecting Baker Mayfield and the Rams to put up another 50-spot this week but it’s hard to ignore the production and opportunity running back Cam Akers has had over the last four games and not look at his touchdown price of +157 and get excited.
There are a lot of checkmarks here:
First, the Chargers’ run defense is a great matchup and although it has tightened things up of late, it's still allowed 4.8 yards per rush over its last three games (5.3 yards per rush on the season).
Next, Akers has been gaining yards after contact — more so than at the beginning of the season. His 2.5 yards gained after contact per carry over the last two weeks ranks sixth in football (minimum 10 carries) and he’s doing this with a decimated offensive line. He’s seen 75% of the snaps in back-to-back weeks and at least 72% of the snaps in three of his last four games where he’s averaging 4.5 yards per carry and has scored six total touchdowns.
Finally, the indoor setting of SoFi should also favor a faster game that could see more plays and more scoring.
Considering Akers has seen 15 red-zone carries over the last four games while the other LA RBs have seen a combined two, Akers at solid plus money is a great play for early-market bettors.
Cam Akers Prop: Anytime touchdown (+157)
NFL Week 17 prop betting card
- Goff Over 267.5 passing yards (-110)
- Watt to record a sack (-135 at bet365)
- Walker Over 15.5 carries (-132 at Unibet)
- Fournette Over 73.5 total yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Akers anytime touchdown (+157 at Betano)
- Murray Over 45.5 rushing yards (-111 at Caesars)
- Harris Over 11.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
