NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 18: Hayden Hurst Continues to Get Number Called

We’ve finally made it to the regular-season finish line. With so much on the line this weekend, there are plenty of angles bettors can take advantage of, including my three favorite NFL player props for Sunday.

Here are my latest NFL player prop picks for Week 18.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Hurst Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Harris Over 10.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Mattison anytime TD (+440)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Sunday

Safe Hayden

Hayden Hurst might be a lost name among the Bengals’ pass-catchers, but that’s good news for bettors. The Cincinnati tight end comes into a must-win game vs. the Ravens with a yardage total of 29.5, which is heading north. 

Hurst looked to be a big part of the game plan on Monday, turning two targets into 25 yards before the tragic events regarding Damar Hamlin. He had been dealing with a calf injury that kept him out of Weeks 14 through 16, but he looks to be back to full health.

Before the injury, the tight end was seeing 15% of the targets, averaging 8.4 yards per reception, 5.45 targets, and 4.2 catches per game. Hurst had a season-high yardage total of 40.5 this season.

Although the game script of being a 9-point favorite is worrisome, it’s priced in. It's also not easy to run against the Ravens, who surrender just the second-fewest yards on the ground per contest. 

He might not be Joe Burrow’s first target, but a three-catch game should be Hurst's floor today, and the market is starting to move on the reliable tight end.

Hayden Hurst Prop: Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115)

Harris’ hands

Najee Harris needed a game-winning touchdown catch to hit his Over 11.5 receiving-yard total, but that was also vs. one of the fastest defenses in football, with Baltimore's Patrick Queen and Roquan Smith covering opposing running backs.

Harris and the Steelers now face Cleveland in a must-win game. The Browns have four linebackers currently on the IR, including starters Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah and Jacob Philips. Projected starters Tony Fields and Jermaine Carter are ungraded depth players per Pro Football Focus, and they could allow Harris to have nice success in the passing game. 

His receiving total can be found at 10.5 yards, and I’d play this to 12.5. Harris is getting 10% of the team’s targets, breaks tackles at an elite rate, and is running over 15 routes per game with 44.3% route participation. These numbers might not jump out at bettors, but with such a short total, they’re favoring the Over. 

In the 10 games that Kenny Pickett has started and finished, Harris is averaging 3.8 targets and 2.8 catches. 

Najee Harris Prop: Over 10.5 receiving yards (-115)

Reading between the lines

Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell told the media this week that he has a plan with his players in a somewhat meaningless regular season finale vs. Nathan Peterman and the Bears.

O'Connell mentioned “getting some of the other guys some snaps,” which sounds like we could see some backups Sunday. It’s likely the reason the prop markets have been slow to open on this game, but fortunately for bettors, the touchdown markets are available.

Vikings Kevin O'Connell on Week 18 plan pic.twitter.com/nQ0vghp7mS

— rivers mccown (alt) (@mccownclips) January 6, 2023

Nick Mullens was seen taking snaps with new center Chris Reed, which has me leaning that O’Connell might not have much interest in winning this game. If Minnesota wins, they could play the Packers, who beat them 41-17 last week. A loss would likely lock them into the No. 3 seed and date with the Giants, which would be more favorable.

If the backups do get more volume, backup running back Alex Mattison would benefit greatly. He’s being priced as high as +440 to score a touchdown against a Chicago defense that has given up 76 points over the last two weeks. 

Mattison got the mop-up role last week vs. the Packers and finished with eight carries for 38 yards. If he sees double-digit carries in a game where Minnesota will see great field position with Peterman likely struggling, his +440 anytime TD price could be a steal.

These odds will likely fall, but I’d still take a shot at +230 or better. 

Alex Mattison Prop: Anytime touchdown (+440)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Stid the stud

The Kansas City Chiefs need a win Saturday to lock up the AFC's No. 1 seed, which will keep this game competitive and the Las Vegas Raiders passing and hopefully chasing points. 

The indoor conditions and 9-point spread should benefit new Vegas quarterback Jarrett Stidham, who threw for 365 yards and three scores last week against the best defense in football.

With the Raiders in evaluation mode and Stidham comfortable with head coach Josh McDaniels' offense dating back to his time in New England, this is a very good spot to like Stidham's passing total. Even Davante Adams (7/153/2 last week) is aware that his performance this week will go a long way in how the team views his QB's future.   

''I think he showed what he's capable of and what he can do,'' Adams said following last week's loss to the 49ers. '' [He] definitely has some potential. I think that sustaining that and doing it again will be something that'd be big for him as far as seeing how [the coaches] view him and how they want to move forward.''

Jarrett Stidham in the first half of his first career start, playoff against the best defense in the NFL: 11-for-14, 145 yards, 2 TD, no interceptions, no sacks taken.

Decisive, accurate and in complete control. Very impressive.

— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 1, 2023

There are even more reasons to like Stidham’s passing total, which opened at 235.5 and is moving north. Running back Josh Jacobs is questionable and has been dealing with multiple injuries over the last few weeks, which could lead to more passing in a game with a likely negative game script for the home team.

Additionally, Kansas City corner L’Jarius Sneed is also questionable heading into the game. He injured his hip during his interception return last week and is the team’s highest-rated defensive back, per Pro Football Focus. Even if Sneed does play, it’s not certain he’ll play his usual 100% of the snaps.

Stidham will also have a full array of healthy pass-catchers as Adams, Mack Hollins, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller are all active. 

This will likely be a popular play and a prop I’d play up to 250 yards, as THE BLITZ has him projected for 272 passing yards.

Jarrett Stidham Prop: Over 235.5 passing yards (-114)

Down on Dobbs

Week 18 starter Joshua Dobbs had a closing passing total of 156.5 last week before throwing for 232 yards on 20-for-32 passing. His passing total adjusted heavily this week, opening at 190.5 before taking money on the Under and falling south. However, plenty of books are still offering totals in the mid-180s, which is still enough for me to hit the Under.

Dobbs completed three passes of 30-plus yards last week behind a makeshift offensive line which is a tough thing to do, even for the best QBs in the league. Joe Burrow has just 20 passes of 30-plus yards over 16 games this season, and considering Dobbs was making his first NFL start last week, those numbers are almost impossible to replicate. 47% of Dobbs’ 232 passing yards came on those three long receptions, and keep in mind, that game meant nothing to the Titans.  

Additionally, Treylon Burks — who caught one of those 30-yard passes and led the team in receiving yards last week — was downgraded to DNP at practice Thursday, which is a huge blow to the Tennessee passing game. 

The Titans will be playing to their strengths in this must-win game, which means plenty of plays on the ground. Derrick Henry has run for 100-plus yards in three straight contests and was given Week 17 off. One of those games was a 121-yards performance vs. the Jaguars in Week 14. 

Tennessee runs the ball at the fourth-highest rate in football, and with everything on the line Saturday, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Mike Vrabel be more conservative with Dobbs this time around. 

The 30-yard adjustment is tough to ignore, especially with the three long completions from last week skewing his numbers and the game plan being very different with Henry back. This is shaping up to be a “game-manager” spot for Dobbs if the Titans can keep it from getting out of hand and maintain a relatively neutral game script. 

I’d play this Under confidently to 180.5 yards, and if Burks sits, this could easily fall to under 180.5. This will be just Dobbs’ second NFL start, and I’d bet the Titans don’t want to rely on his arm to win the division.

Joshua Dobbs Prop: Under 186.5 passing yards (-115)

Gray’s skies 

The Kansas City passing game gets a great matchup this week indoors vs. a Raiders defense that ranks 30th in EPA/dropback and 29th in success rate since Week 9, and 31st in EPA/dropback on the season.  

Finishing this game healthy will be a huge factor for the Chiefs, which is keeping me off of high totals like Travis Kelce’s 76.5-yard total. However, backup tight end Noah Gray could be in line for more snaps.

His receiving total can be found as low as 10.5 yards but will likely close at 13.5, which is where I’m still comfortable taking the Over. Gray has played over 50% of the snaps since the team’s bye, recorded at least one catch in 12 straight games, and has a multi-catch game in six of his nine games following the bye. He's also topped 12 yards receiving in eight of those nine contests. 

With Patrick Mahomes spreading the ball around better than any quarterback in football, Gray has a 15.3% target rate on routes ran and is running a route on nearly 50% of the team’s passing plays. 

These aren’t massive numbers, but when we’re looking at a possible one-catch winner and projecting roughly three targets, that’s enough value to hit the Over. He also has 6.1 yards after catch/reception, which equals Kelce's rate. 

Third-string TE Blake Bell has seen just six passing snaps over the last two games, so the No. 2 role is clearly Gray’s.

With the possibility of a bigger workload, a solid production floor, and a good-to-great matchup in the highest total of the week — Gray Over 10.5 yards is a great wager on Saturday.

Noah Gray Prop: Over 10.5 receiving yards (-115)

Season to date: 113-108 +3.5 units (Risking 1 unit per play)

NFL Week 18 prop betting card

• Hurst Over 29.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Harris Over 10.5 receiving yards (-115
• Mattison anytime TD (+440)
• Stidham Over 235.5 passing yards (-114)
• Dobbs Under 186.5 passing yards (-115)
• Gray Over 10.5 receiving yards (-115)

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