Welcome to Week 18, where NFL player props markets are akin to a very live minefield, with motivations (good and bad), injury management, and weather (it is January, after all) all creating wrinkles unlike any other week in the regular season.
With that in mind, I'm focusing on guys who have something still to play for (ideally against defenses that very much don't) with my NFL picks and player props for Week 18.
Quite the return for me, following a two-week holiday hiatus, amirite? (Also: Shoutout to my colleague Trevor Knapp for going 7-3 in my absence and totally making me look like a chump — maybe he should keep making picks...)
NFL Week 18 prop picks
Henry o89.5 rush yards (-110)
Robinson 20+ rec yards (+130)
Nix 20+ rush yards (+115)
Ertz o38.5 rec yards (-110)
Downs o50.5 rec yards (-110)
Click on each pick to see full analysis.
NFL prop picks for Week 18
Derrick Henry Over 89.5 rushing yards (-110)
The Baltimore Ravens have plenty of motivation to win on Saturday: A victory secures the No. 3 seed in the AFC and an opening-round home game (with a loss opening the door to slide all the way down to fifth) AND Baltimore will surely want to avenge its upset loss to the Cleveland Browns a few weeks ago.
Derrick Henry has come back to life to close out the season, rumbling for 309 yards over his last two games, and faces a Browns defense playing hard... but severely lacking motivation: Cleveland is currently sitting with the third-overall pick in the draft and has been completely uncompetitive with Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center.
The Browns have nine total points (and 287 total passing yards) in two games with DTR at QB. That led to Cleveland pivoting to Bailey Zappe as the Week 18 starter — a move that immediately moved the spread multiple points in favor of Baltimore. This will be a massively lopsided game — as evidenced by the now 20-point spread — which leads me to expect a heavy dose of King Henry as he heads into his first playoff game in three years.
Henry also has an outside shot at 2,000 yards (he needs 213 on Sunday) and while I don't think he'll get there... industry projections average 105 for him (and range as high as 118) on Saturday afternoon... giving plenty of confidence that he'll get at least 90.
Pick: Derrick Henry Over 89.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 1-2
Bijan Robinson 20+ receiving yards (+130)
Another team that needs to win, the Atlanta Falcons must defeat the Carolina Panthers and get a Buccaneers loss to get in the postseason. They can only control the outcome of their matchup... but facing the Panthers' pathetic defense is good for the offense — especially star running back Bijan Robinson.
After posting 20+ receiving yards in 10 of his first 12 games, his usage in the passing game has tailed off down the stretch... but he's still had multiple receptions in three of his last four games (including five targets last week) and is such an electric player that he could top this total in one play.
He also has the luxury, again, of facing a Carolina team allowing almost 37 receiving yards per game to RBs (10th-most in the league) — including 77 yards to Bucky Irving last week and 49 yards to James Conner the week before that.
Robinson's total is set at 15.5, easily his lowest number of the season, but with industry projections putting Bijan at around 24 yards, I love the value I'm getting from the 20+ yard milestone, which bet365 is offering at +130.
Pick: Bijan Robinson 20+ receiving yards (+130 at bet365)
Pick made on 1-2
Bo Nix 20+ rushing yards (+115)
Bo Nix has had a helluva rookie season, with his biggest game yet on tap as he and the Denver Broncos need to beat the Kansas City Chiefs to see postseason action.
Now, the 15-1 Chiefs are already resting several key starters, but I'm still expecting this defense to bring the heat, which means Nix will need to be at his best, both through the air and on the ground.
The rookie QB has 18 carries over his last three games, more resembling his early-season form (when he averaged 5.6 runs per game) than Weeks 10-13 (when he had nine total), and Kansas City has allowed the 10th-most rushing yards per game to QBs (almost 24 per week).
Nix's rushing total is 17.5 for Sunday — tied for his lowest number of the season — priced at -110... but by tacking on two additional yards, bet365 is offering a +115 price... a value I can't turn down considering industry projections average almost 25 yards (and range as high as 29.4) for Bo on Sunday.
He's also topped 20 rushing yards in each of his last three games and 7/10 games this season when he's rushed at least five times — which books expect him to do as his Over/Under on carries is set at 5.5.
Pick: Bo Nix 20+ rushing yards (+115 at bet365)
Pick made on 1-2
Zach Ertz Over 38.5 receiving yards (-110)
We now move into the NFL contract incentives portion of this article, as the Washington Commanders veteran tight end has up to $750,000 worth of bonuses on the line vs. the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday.
Zach Ertz has milestone bonuses available for receptions, touchdowns, and receiving yards, the latter of which I'm focusing on as he needs 90 yards to cash in $250,000 in a game where the Commanders will be trying to win: A victory means a first-round playoff game against either the NFC West or South winner... while a loss could mean Washington opens at Philadelphia.
With starters likely playing most of the game (against a mediocre-at-best Dallas defense) and Ertz the only offensive player with money on the line for Washington, I would expect him to get plenty of opportunities to get close to this number.
It's a lofty number for sure... but his receiving yardage total is only 38.5 — I'm looking at Ertz to Get rich or [top his rec yards prop] tryin'.
(However, if you do want to sprinkle on some Ertz milestones... 60+ yards can be found as long as +290, while 90+ yards are as long as 11/1.)
Pick: Zach Ertz Over 38.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 1-3
Trevor Knapp's Week 18 best bet
I did say above that Trevor Knapp should probably make another pick... didn't I?
Josh Downs Over 50.5 receiving yards (-110)
Call me a sadist, as I target a player prop in a meaningless AFC South affair, but Josh Downs should be chomping at the bit to face the league's worst passing defense.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense runs man coverage at the fourth-highest rate in the league, and Downs thrives as a man-beater in the slot, ranking 15th in the league in yards per route run against this alignment, per Pro Football Focus.
The former second-round pick was targeted a season-high 12 times in the Indianapolis Colts' last matchup with the Jags, and he has shown a massive uptick in production when Joe Flacco is under center — instead of the embattled (and always injured) Anthony Richardson.
If it wasn't for Indy's inconsistency at QB, Downs would be a household name around the NFL, as he boasts the fifth-best separation percentage amongst all qualified receivers entering Sunday's regular-season finale.
Conventional wisdom suggests the Colts would lean heavily on Jonathan Taylor if their playoff hopes were still alive. However, in a game with minimal stakes for either team, I anticipate a more balanced offensive approach, and Downs should be the main benefactor from Indy's passing attack.
Trevor's pick: Josh Downs Over 50.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Pick made on 1-3
NFL Week 18 prop betting card
- Derrick Henry Over 89.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Bijan Robinson 20+ receiving yards (+130)
- Bo Nix 20+ rushing yards (+115)
- Zach Ertz Over 38.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Josh Downs Over 50.5 receiving yards (-110)
Season: 37-38, -5.68 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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