NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 2: Believe in the Toney Redemption Game

Sometimes, you just take a good ol' punch to the gut.

After sifting through the NFL odds, you find a bet you absolutely love... and then you get crushed by a pathetic performance.

You get knocked down... but you get up again. You know why? Cause they're never gonna keep you down.

(Sorry not sorry). Editor's note: Ugh.

There was one market I've been waiting for to include in my NFL picks — and my prayers were answered, as I get my chance at redemption... in betting on a wide receiver getting redemption himself.

I've also found a few other gems in the Week 2 odds, but my heart is committed to a Chiefs wide receiver whose last name rhymes with "phony."

Yes, my friends, we're going there with my best NFL player props for Week 2's Sunday slate.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Akers u31.5 rush yards
• Toney o27.5 rec yards
• Dotson o41.5 rec yards

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Akes and pains

If you just looked at the box score from the Los Angeles Rams' Week 1 win over Seattle, you'd assume that Cam Akers is, in fact, the lead man in that backfield.

You'd see that Akers finished with seven more carries than second-year RB Kyren Williams and should be treated as the RB1 going forward... but boy, oh boy, can looks ever be deceiving — so much so that I'm strongly suggesting you take the Under on Akers' rushing total of 31.5 yards. 

The reality is that Williams looked like the superior back, in every facet of the game.  He ran for 52 yards on his 15 carries in Week 1 while Akers managed a terrible 29 yards on his 22 attempts, and had an NFL-worst -41 rush yards over expected (per NFL Next Gen Stats)... against the league's third-worst run defense in 2022.

This Sunday, Akers and the Rams face the San Francisco 49ers, who boast arguably the top defense in the NFL and just held Pittsburgh to 41 total rushing yards, with Steelers lead back Najee Harris accounting for 31 yards (24 of which came on one run).

My biggest thing here is that, again, Akers isn't actually the lead back: He was out-snapped 53-28 by Williams for the game and 26-5 in the first half (when the game was close), with almost all of his action coming in the back half of the game when the Rams weren't passing much and just running to protect a big lead.

The Rams are highly unlikely to hold a large lead (if any lead) in this game, currently sitting as 7.5-point underdogs, which means we should get a full game's worth of snap counts similar to the first half in Week 1 — with significantly less Akers on the field.

Even if he does get 10-15 carries, his overall ineffectiveness and the Niners' dominance still make me comfortable with this Under.

Prop: Cam Akers Under 31.5 rush yards (-110 at bet365)

#Redemptionszn

I have been waiting a week to bet on Kadarius Toney odds, specifically the Over on his receiving yards prop.

Yes, yes, yes I know; he put on one of the all-time worst WR performances ever. He was the laughingstock of the league. Heck, I even nicknamed him "Kadarius Phony" in my Sleeper fantasy league team (11/10 unnecessary but awesome feature, by the way).

But hear me out: A receiving yards total of 27.5 yards is comically bad... even with Travis Kelce back.

Last week, Toney faced a total of 30.5 yards, mainly because there was uncertainty on his health, snap count, or how he (and all the other Kansas City Chiefs receivers) would be deployed.

Well, despite playing only 16 snaps (more than only CEH, Justyn Ross, and Matt Bushman), he was tied for the team league in targets. And yes, he had three absolutely heinous drops... but the likelihood he repeats that poor effort is borderline impossible — had he made those catches, he would have finished in the 60-70 yard range and even if he catches two of those gimmes, he still blows past this number.

He's another week healthier, and what is repeatable is that he's still the most talented WR on this team; he had the second-largest average separation of all receivers in that game — better than the likes of Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, and Calvin Ridley in Week 1 — while facing the seventh-smallest average cushion at the line of scrimmage (per NFL Next Gen Stats).

Obviously, Kelce is going to get the majority of Patrick Mahomes' attention, but none of the other Chiefs WRs did anything to stand out and Toney should have zero problem getting free against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that allowed Anthony Richardson to connect for 30 yards with Josh Downs and 39 yards to Kylen Granson.

And if you get open, Mahomes is going to hit you. Believe in the Toney redemption game.

Prop: Kadarius Toney Over 27.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Connect with Dots

Jahan Dotson was one of the most hyped fantasy (and betting) sleepers entering the year, although the sophomore Washington Commanders receiver had a bit of a disappointing 2023 debut, recording just 40 yards against a suspect Arizona Cardinals defense. However, I'm confident he can improve on that performance this Sunday, and I'm betting the Over on his total of 41.5 yards against the Denver Broncos.

First, because Dotson is split between lining up out wide and in the slot, whereas No. 1 WR Terry McLaurin is primarily a wideout, I'm expecting McLaurin to be stuck in the shadow of Denver CB Patrick Surtain II for the majority of the day — and that's not a good thing, as Surtain just locked down Davante Adams, allowing the Raiders star to catch just two of five targets for 16 yards when he was covering him.

McLaurin's loss, however, is Dotson's (and our) gain, as he should see a lot of DeMarri Mathis on the other side of the field. Mathis allowed Las Vegas No. 2 Jakobi Meyers to go 6/7 for 63 yards (and gave up eight catches on nine targets overall, with 95 yards and a 150.2 passer rating) on the day. When Dotson goes into the slot, he'll see Essang Bassey, who played just 16 coverage snaps and gave up two catches on two targets.

Dotson also could be in line for more work: He led all Washington pass catchers in snaps and was tied for the team lead with seven targets in Week 1, but Logan Thomas (7), Curtis Samuel (5), and McLaurin (4) all cut into his looks — however we could see QB Sam Howell avoid McLaurin/Surtain if possible and Samuel has been limited in practice with a hip injury, so his overall snaps could be reduced.

Consensus projections have Dotson around 46.5 yards on the day, with some projections (such as NFL Fantasy) putting him as high as 51.2 yards. If Samuel gets ruled out — or confirmed for reduced time — this line could move up, so considering the positive matchup potential, I'd bet this sooner rather than later.

Prop: Jahan Dotson Over 41.5 receiving yards (-115 at Caesars)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Bobby trees stands tall

In last week's article, I was all-in on Calvin Ridley torching the Indianapolis Colts secondary — and he wasted no time breaking off a big chunk play... and lighting them up for 92 yards in the first half.

Well, guess what? We're going back to the well and picking on the Colts again.

We all understand that the best receiver on the Houston Texans is Nico Collins, but I've actually got my eyes on Robert Woods' odds and his receiving yards total of 35.5 yards — around 13 yards fewer than his teammate.

Both receivers have a plum matchup, with 2022 UDFAs Dallis Flowers and Darrell Baker Jr. allowing a combined eight completions on 11 attempts for 117 yards in Week 1. Indy will have its best wide corner (on paper) in rookie second-round pick JuJu Brents back after he missed last week's game, and considering the 6-foot-3 Brents appears as the likely choice to see the most of the 6-foot-4 Collins, I like Woods to exploit plenty of matchups with Flowers and Baker.

Collins led the Texans with 11 targets last week, but Woods was right behind him with 10, tied Collins with six catches, and actually ran more routes in the game. Houston is also without slot receiver Noah Brown, elevating rookie Tank Dell to the No. 3 spot — and while he's an intriguing prospect, I'd still expect quarterback (and also rookie) C.J. Stroud to look more to his veteran receivers... and Woods is as close as the Texans have in a "safety blanket" guy.

After logging 57 yards last week, Woods' current number is below most industry projections, which sit around the 43-yard range. That gives us a nice buffer, and reinforced optimism that he can again have a productive day against a pitiful secondary.

Prop: Robert Woods Over 35.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Mess wit Zay day (and everybody's celebratin')

Continuing in my "six degrees of separation" with Kevin Bacon Calvin Ridley, I am also going back to the Jacksonville Jaguars well, but sticking with the No. 2 theme and betting on Zay Jones odds, where he faces a receiving yards total of 44.5 yards against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Ridley got all the fanfare for an extravagant return, but Jones actually out-snapped Ridley and, well, he's actually kinda good. The 2017 second-rounder struggled for years with Buffalo and Las Vegas but had a breakout season in 2022 with 82 catches (on 117 targets) and 823 yards.

He was the team's No. 2 receiver last season, and while there were concerns he would fall to No. 3 this year (behind Ridley and Christian Kirk), it seems Jones is firmly established as the second wideout, with Kirk limited just to playing the slot in 3-WR sets.

He caught five of seven targets for 55 yards last week, but I'm expecting a little bit more of a pass-heavy script against the high-octane Chiefs offense (especially if Travis Kelce is back), and with L'Jarius Sneed (and most of the Chiefs defense) likely keying in on Ridley, Jones should have some space to operate.

Detroit's No. 2 wideout, Josh Reynolds, went off for 80 yards last week while star Amon-Ra St. Brown also logged 71 — both of which primarily did damage when lining up out wide — I'm not saying Jones will hit that high of a number... but finishing around the 50-yard total seems very attainable with Trevor Lawrence huckin' it to ya.

Prop: Zay Jones Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Titan shock

All offseason, the word out of L.A. was that new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was going to be pushing the ball downfield and getting more aggressive in the passing game.

So it only makes sense that the Los Angeles Chargers ran 40 times in Week 1 — their second-highest total since October 2018 — while QB Justin Herbert dropped back just 42 times, a number that would have been on the lower end of his totals last year.

That said, the Chargers' top WR still had a productive day, and I love Keenan Allen's odds to record a reception of 22 yards or longer in Week 2. Moore may not have dialed up as many pass plays as we're used to seeing from the Bolts, but Herbert's throws were generally deeper, with an average air yards per attempt that were almost a full yard more than his 2022 average.

Allen was also the main focus of Herbert's tosses, with a 29% target share and more catches (six) than any of his teammates had targets (five), and he brought in a 36-yarder against the Dolphins — plus he could get even more looks in Week 2 with dynamic pass-catching RB Austin Ekeler questionable to play on Sunday.

Finally, this should be a game script tilted much more toward throwing, as the Tennessee Titans have arguably the league's most dominant run defense... but a secondary that got absolutely skewered by Derek Carr and the Saints, who completed passes of 25, 22, 27, 45, and 41 yards last week (on just 38 dropbacks) as the Titans also allowed a league-worst 11.5 air yards per attempt.

With the run game returning back to Earth, I'd expect Herbert to shred the Tennessee secondary even worse than Carr did, and with Allen possibly getting a third (or more) of the targets, I love his chances to reel in at least one 22+-yard player for the eighth time in his last 10 games.

Prop: Keenan Allen longest reception Over 21.5 receiving yards (-120 at BetMGM)

Season to date: 4-2-0, +1.86 units

NFL Week 2 prop betting card

• Cam Akers Under 31.5 rush yards (-110)
• Kadarius Toney Over 27.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Jahan Dotson Over 41.5 receiving yards (-115)

     - - 

• Robert Woods Over 35.5 receiving yards (-115)
• Zay Jones Over 44.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Keenan Allen longest reception Over 21.5 receiving yards (-120)

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