NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 4: Williams Set For Success

We’re already into Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season and the prop bets aren’t slowing down. Today, I’m looking at a pair of receiver props and fading one while backing the other.

Latest NFL prop picks

• Samuel Under 30.5 rushing yards (-110)
• Williams Over 56.5 receiving yards (-110)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Sunday

Down on Deebo

The books are still giving us a relatively high rushing yard total on San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel, despite some very low usage in the running game. The wideout rushed the ball just four times in Week 2 and saw just five carries last Sunday vs. a very good Denver defense, finishing with just six yards on the ground against the Broncos — well short of his 30.5 rushing total.

The books are giving us the same 30.5 rushing total in Week 4 against the league’s No. 1 defense in EPA/rush Monday night. THE BLITZ is projecting 21.72 rushing yards for the wideout and I’m expecting the same low-volume, low-output performance. Even with all the injuries to the 49ers’ backfield, Kyle Shanahan hasn’t given Samuel a ton of carries.

With seven carries vs. the Rams in the NFC Championship game last season, Samuel managed just 26 yards on the ground and I'm expecting fewer rushes this week. If Samuel goes four rushes for 21 yards (as projected), this will be the last week we see his rushing total in the 30s.

Deebo Samuel Prop: Under 30.5 rushing yards (-110)

Uncrowded target share

The Chargers will be without Keenan Allen and Jalen Guyton this week against a Texans' defense that is allowing 11.5 yards per catch (29th in the NFL).

Justin Herbert is one week healthier and showed he can get the ball downfield in Week 3. Now he’ll have Mike Williams and Josh Palmer as his main weapons. Williams is the more appetizing choice here, as the star receiver has a receiving total of just 56.5 yards as WR1 heading into kickoff. 

With Allen out in Week 2, Williams took 10 of the 48 targets and followed that up with six targets last week. Although he hauled in just one catch versus a very underrated Jacksonville defense last week, his yardage total falling from 70.5 to 56.5 is way too much. This is especially the case with Guyton out after playing last week.

The game script is the biggest worry here, and head coach Brandon Staley has mentioned getting Austin Ekeler involved more (that market already got hit). However, with the Chargers’ injuries, this could be a closer game than some predict.

With Williams’ size advantage vs. Houston’s shorter DBs and rookie Derek Stingley Jr. grading as the 94th corner in coverage out of 103 per Pro Football Focus, I'm all-in on Williams.

The floor is six targets, and even there, Williams can top this number with a 12.85 aDOT compared to Palmer’s 5.95 aDOT.

Mike Williams Prop: Over 56.5 receiving yards (-110)

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Backup drive

Travis Etienne’s totals have fallen for three straight weeks, but my confidence in the Jaguars’ running back is at a season-high.

His rush attempts have climbed from four, to nine to 13, week-over-week, and he's getting roughly four targets a game. James Robinson is still the starter and seeing about 55% of the snaps, but with a rushing and receiving yards total 20 yards shorter, Etienne is the play this week vs. a defense that gave up over 200 yards to Detroit running backs in Week 1.

Dalvin Cook didn’t do much vs. the Eagles in Week 2, but the Vikings trailed 14-0 very quickly and abandoned the run. With how good the Jacksonville defense has been to open the season, this game could be a lot closer than the 6.5-point spread is indicating. 

The Eagles are also one of the harder teams in football to pass deep on, meaning Trevor Lawrence might have to go to his underneath reads and get the backs involved in the passing game. 

Washington’s JD McKissic had nine targets last week vs. the Eagles, and because of the pressure the Eagles create, offsetting it with Etienne in the passing game is a probable solution.

Even with a 10-12 touch day at minimal gains, 46.5 yards is a beatable number. With his usage on the rise and his totals getting shorter, this is a great play. If you have to choose between the rushing and receiving totals, I’m going with the Over 17.5 receiving yards.

Travis Etienne prop: Over 46.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115 at bet365) 

Screaming bloody Herbert

Through three games, the Giants have held a lead for just 28 minutes and have never led by more than six points despite a 2-1 record. This is not an offense that’s going to force its opponents to abandon the run and with the run-heavy Bears on deck Sunday, the new back in town could be busy.

It will be Khalil Herbert’s backfield again in Week 4 with David Montgomery on the shelf. Sadly, Herbert’s 157 rushing yards last week on 20 carries have inflated his total, but not enough for me to bail on this Over in a perfect matchup.

The Bears are running the ball at the highest rate in the league. Their 65% run rate is 11% more than the second-most run-heavy team. Matt Eberflus knows his personnel, and this isn’t a good passing team.

With Justin Fields also taking on a rushing workload, Herbert won’t share many snaps and could see north of 70% of the backfield snaps. 

With a low total and a game that won’t get lopsided, the game script will also be in Herbert’s favor. 

The Giants sit 29th in EPA/rush and 26th in success rate vs. the rush. Opposing RBs are running for 126 yards per game vs. the Giants which is the third-most in the league behind only the Texans and Seahawks. 

THE BLITZ has Herbert projected for 85 yards and that’s enough for me to hit the Over 75.5 rushing yards, even if it might be inflated after a huge performance last week. The matchup couldn't be better. Some books are already at 79.5 yards.

Khalil Herbert prop: Over 75.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Hall pass

Through three weeks, rookie running back Breece Hall is rushing to a 5.3 yards per carry clip while also contributing in the passing game with 13 catches for 100 yards. His snap share is growing, as he had 51% off the backfield snaps last week, which was a season-high.

He also ran 31 routes compared to Michael Carter’s 21. I was riding a Carter Over 14.5 receiving yards prop last week and sadly it was the Hall show. I’ve learned my lesson.

The Jets are 3-point dogs against the Steelers, which is the shortest they've been all year. That bodes well for a neutral game script that could result in more rushing and with Zach Wilson under center, things will get more conservative with the inaccurate QB. Even if the Jets are forced to pass a ton (again), Hall’s role in the passing game makes him game script-proof for a total yard prop.

Based on season trends Breece Hall should assume a RB1-type usage. In week 3, He played a majority of third downs and short yardage snaps. He earned 11 targets. Hall out-snapped Michael Carter for the first time this season. With Wilson's return, the Jets could lean on the rookie

— Kevin (@Daboys_22) September 28, 2022

The books still have Carter's total yard number higher than Hall's but this will be the last week we see that. This is a 50/50 backfield, at worst, for Hall, and the second-round rookie is the better talent.

Pittsburgh is giving up 165 total yards to opposing running backs (121 rushing, 44 receiving) and at 60.5 total yards, Hall could top this number just from his rushing output.

Breece Hall Prop: Over 60.5 total yards (-115)

Master Bateman 

Mark Andrews leads all tight ends in target share with a staggering 36.5%. His receiving total has jumped from 56.5 to 62.5 week-on-week but facing the best coverage linebacker in Matt Milano is not an easy task. Bettors expecting Andrews to get another 44% of targets, as he did in Week 3, might be wishful thinking. 

Through three weeks, the Bills are allowing just 29 yards per game to opposing TEs (5th) after finishing 2021 at 37 yards (5th). With the six-yard jump in Andrews’ total, I’m passing on his Over and instead looking at the Ravens' Rashod Bateman.

Bateman leads the league in yards after the catch/reception at 14.9, which is 3.0 yards more than the next receiver. He hasn’t been a target hog early, but with the Bills clogging up the run (7th in EPA/rush), playing tough vs. opposing TEs, and thin in the secondary, Bateman has a favorable matchup in a high-total game.

The Bills have starting corner Dane Jackson and starting safety Jordan Poyer as limited this week at practice. 

Rashod Bateman through Week 3 of the 2022 season

- No. 1 in yards per catch (28.3)
- No. 4 in yards per target (14.1) pic.twitter.com/rYIoKCHS2x

— Kevin Oestreicher (@koestreicher34) September 27, 2022

With the fourth longest receiving total in the game, Bateman has proven he can top these totals with a low target share but I think his opportunities increase in a potential shootout. It also helps when his quarterback leads the NFL in air yards per attempt.  

Rashod Bateman Prop: Over 49.5 receiving yards (-110)

Wentz with benefits

The Dallas Cowboys lead the league in sacks and sit third in quarterback pressures through three weeks. This Sunday, they face the most sacked signal-caller in football, Carson Wentz, who took nine(!) sacks in Week 3.

The talking heads are all over Micah Parsons and so are the books (-200 to record a sack), but I’m looking on the other side of that insane Dallas pass rush.

The #Eagles had 9 sacks on Sunday against Carson Wentz - @NFLFilms pic.twitter.com/qQxHQBmCes

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 26, 2022

DeMarcus Lawrence finished last week with a career-high three sacks and benefits more than anybody with the extra attention Parsons deserves.

Lawrence had an injury scare in the third quarter to a previously injured foot, but finished the game and got in limited practices this week. He told reporters everything is good ahead of his prime matchup.  

The Commanders are even weaker up front as right tackle Sam Cosmi (66 snaps last weak and highest-graded O-lineman) was limited at practice this week. 

With a full-game sack total of 5.5 and getting Lawrence at -120, we’re jumping on the defensive side of the ball and looking for a winner. 

DeMarcus Lawrence Prop: To record a sack (-120 at bet365)

Season to date: 30-23 SU, +3.47 units (Risking 1 unit per play)

NFL Week 4 prop betting card

• Deebo Samuel Under 30.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
• Mike Williams Over 56.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

    — —

• Etienne Over 46.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115 at bet365)
• K. Herbert Over 75.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

    — —

• Lawrence to record a sack (-120 at bet365)
• Hall Over 60.5 total yards (-115 at bet365)
• Bateman Over 49.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

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