We've learned through the early part of the NFL season that passing seems to be a lot more difficult than it should be for a passing-first league.
Betting on passing-related NFL player props has been a bit of a crapshoot, so last week I kicked it old-school and relied on the ground game: Four of my five NFL picks were rushing props... and I went 4-1 (the loser being a passing prop).
So what are we doing this week? Sticking with the ground and pound baby!
I'm kicking things off with one rushing prop for TNF tonight, and I'll have some more prop picks (probably/likely/definitely run heavy) as we head into the weekend.
Latest NFL prop picks
Purdy o12.5 rush yards
(-110 at BetMGM)
Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.
NFL prop picks for Week 6
Brock Purdy Over 12.5 rush yards
This line opened at 11.5 and has already moved up to 13.5 at many outlets... because Brock Purdy has embraced using his legs when the situation calls for it.
The San Francisco 49ers quarterback has run for 11+ yards in eight straight games, dating back to the start of last season's playoffs, including 33 and 41 yards in two of his three most recent outings.
Purdy will also be facing a Seattle Seahawks team tonight that is No. 1 in QB pressure rate through five weeks, which could force him to use his legs more if the pocket starts to break down. Seattle has only faced two mobile QBs so far this season but both were successful on the ground, with Bo Nix running for 35 yards in his NFL debut and Daniel Jones logging 38 yards last week.
Industry projections range as high as 22 yards for Purdy this week and in a game that stands to impact the NFC West Divisional race, I expect Purdy to do whatever's necessary to help secure a win.
Pick made on 10-10
NFL Week 6 prop betting card
- Brock Purdy Over 12.5 rush yards (-110)
Last week: 4-1, +2.53 units
Season: 13-12, +0.07 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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