NFL Best Bets and Player Props for Week 8: Murray Scampers All Over Minny D

Somehow, we're already into Week 8 of the season and it's a loaded slate, starting with another international game in London on Sunday morning and closing with a pair of intriguing primetime matchups.

Ahead of the weekend, we're canvassing the NFL odds board and bringing you our favorite NFL player props, shining a light on one of the league's best dual-threat quarterbacks getting it done on the ground, and a rising star muted by both his own team and this week's foe.

Get set for another week around the league with our NFL prop picks for Week 8. 

Latest NFL prop picks

• Murray Over 30.5 rushing yards (-114)
• Pitts Under 35.5 receiving yards (-115)

Check out full analysis of picks below, or click here to view the full betting card.

NFL prop picks for Sunday

Kyler's the captain

An even more damning indictment of Kliff Kingsbury's authority than Kyler Murray putting him in his place during a timeout last Thursday was Murray saying, before a Week 6 game against the Seahawks, that he was going to run more... and then running 10 times for 100 yards. 

With a fraudulent head coach and little talent outside DeAndre Hopkins, Murray's legs are a needed threat for the Cards' offense. It looked like that uptick in rushing would continue vs. the Saints, as Kyler had 27 rushing yards in three drives before Andy Dalton's back-to-back pick-sixes largely ended the need for Murray to create with his legs. 

Against a competitive Vikings team, in which the Cardinals are just 3.5-point road dogs, Murray is much more likely to have to be the do-all star he is capable of being. And he won't need much motivation, with Minnesota having struggled to contain quarterbacks already this year. 

The Vikings have given up 5.3 yards per carry to quarterbacks and have already faced a couple of the position's best runners, with Justin Fields going for 47 yards on eight carries and Jalen Hurts totaling 57 on 12 runs. Hurts and Fields are considerably more physical runners than Murray but his dynamism is matched only by Lamar Jackson at the position. 

We got lucky with Dalton's first-half collapse last week, as another strong running game for Murray would've likely seen this total open at similar heights to last year, instead of the 30.5 it has floated around in '22.  

Kyler Murray Prop: Over 30.5 rushing yards (-114)

Pitts of despair 

It's crazy that we have gotten here, not hesitating in hitting the Under on a line of 35.5(!) for Kyle Pitts but it's undeniable. Pitts has gone Under a shrinking total every week this season except for an outburst against the Seahawks, who haven't defended a tight end since Matt Hasselbeck was under center.

No matter which way you look at Pitts' outlook this week — his usage, the team's offensive approach, and the matchup — it's easy to take the Under.

The usage of Pitts is, quite frankly, a crime against football. He's playing less than 75% of his team's snaps and is running a route on just over three-quarters of the Falcons' dropbacks. On the most run-heavy team in the NFL, that has equated to a measly five targets per game.  

That is a hilarious indictment of the team's run:pass split, as Pitts' five targets a game is still good for a target share of 25.4%. Atlanta's 31st in pass rate over expectation, behind just the Bears, who are doing everything possible to not let Justin Fields spin it.

Look no further than last week to see the Falcons' unwavering commitment to the running game. After going down 28-7 in the last minute of the first half, Atlanta would go on to call 12 runs vs. just seven pass plays — despite a three-score deficit and Pitts and Drake London at its disposal.  

Pitts' involvement won't get easier against the Panthers who, despite their defensive struggles, are well-equipped to defend a unique weapon like Pitts. That was the case last year, as they limited the would-be 1,000-yard pass-catcher to 74 yards and seven catches across two games — with Pitts' 37-yards per game a far cry from the 63.4 yards he averaged across the remaining 15 games.

As much as you'd love a hybrid defender like Jeremy Chinn, who is on I.R., here, the Panthers can still use both Shaq Thompson and Jaycee Horn to match up on Pitts. With how much Atlanta uses 12 personnel, Carolina will be free to match up with London and Pitts as it pleases and not worry about the Falcons exploiting a mismatch. 

Though Carolina's in the bottom half of the league in both pass defense DVOA and EPA, its targets, receptions, and yards allowed to tight ends are all in the Top 10 — with per-game averages of 5.1 targets, 4.1 catches, and 41.7 yards allowed.

The Panthers successfully contained Pitts last year and with Atlanta doing its best to help this time around, they'll keep the tight end in check again.

Kyle Pitts Prop: Under 35.5 receiving yards (-115)

NFL prop picks for Saturday

Fast lap

Despite one of the more predictable breakouts last week, Terry McLaurin's receiving yards total for Week 8 is just three yards higher than where it closed last week. That 55.5-yard total was comfortably cleared in McLaurin's 73-yard day, despite a painfully slow start for Taylor Heinicke and Washington's offense.

That game was the latest in what is a season-plus of evidence that Heinicke and McLaurin have a great connection, and that Washington's quarterback is hellbent on peppering the former Buckeye. 

With Heinicke starting 15 games a year ago, McLaurin saw a target share of 24.5%, while earning over a quarter of the team's total targets. That target share plummeted to 16.4% through six games this year, with Carson Wentz doing his thing. But, sure enough, with Heinicke back at the helm, McLaurin's target share last week was 24% and it unsurprisingly led to his most impactful performance of the year.

With Wentz on I.R., it remains Heinicke's show and thus, McLaurin remains as good of a bet as any receiver to receive elite opportunity. And, as McLaurin has proven throughout his career, an opportunity is all he needs to produce at a high level. 

Terry McLaurin Prop: Over 58.5 receiving yards (-115)

Pennsylvania plodder 

Despite falling 30(!) yards from Week 1 to Week 7, Najee Harris has still gone Under his total yards prop five times this year, because he isn't very good or fully healthy, and he is ceding opportunities to rookie Jaylen Warren.

In a matchup with the Philadelphia freakin' Eagles, I am again quite comfortably hitting the Under on a line of 67.5 total yards for Harris — benefitting from an increased total from last week, where he finished with an inflated 80 scrimmage yards. 

As a runner this year, Harris has been downright terrible. The former Bama back is rumbling to just 3.3 yards per carry — but the underlying numbers are even less kind. Harris is 34th in DYAR and 37th in DVOA among qualifying backs, while coming in at 36th in success rate (42%). Though he slashed an astronomically high carries-to-broken-tackles ratio in recent weeks, it's still an ugly average of 14.3 carries per broken tackle.

Whether it's a lingering foot injury or just the reality of who Harris is as an NFL player, his inability to make defenders miss has extended to the passing game. Regression from sky-high numbers last year, with Ben Roethlisberger at the helm, was unavoidable but he's been a non-factor in '22 with just 18 catches and 86 yards. All told, he is averaging just 2.04 yards created per touch this season.

There isn't a defense in the NFL poor enough to turn Harris into the player many expected him to be, and Philly is certainly not the spot for that. The Eagles have a deep, stout defensive front capable of containing a between-the-tackles plodder like Harris, and they're giving up just 27 receiving yards to tailbacks per game this year — the third-lowest mark in the NFL. 

Najee Harris Prop: Under 67.5 total yards (-110)

NFL prop picks for Friday

Need Moore

Few players have suffered from horrendous quarterback play this year at the level the Panthers' DJ Moore has. The former Terrapin entered the NFL as a bona fide dynamic threat and rarely wavered from being as much prior to 2022.

After averaging 68.4 yards per game through his first four seasons, Moore's per-game mark plummeted to 34.0 yards in six games this year. That was the result, at least in part, due to a shrunken target share. With Baker Mayfield under center, Moore was seeing just 24% of the team's targets after creeping over 28% a year ago. 

Week 7 and PJ Walker, however, promised a reprieve — and delivered upon it.  

With Walker at the helm, Moore earned a 45% target share and turned it into season-highs of seven catches for 69 yards — which came on the heels of a game in which the Panthers mustered a pathetic 110 yards passing with a Walker/Jacob Eason platoon, but Moore still drew a 33% target share.

All that is to say, Moore's experience with Mayfield is the outlier in an otherwise fantastically consistent young career. Moore has been largely quarterback- and matchup-proof in his career, so I'd comfortably take him to go Over this line with his target share getting back to where it should be.

With a matchup against a Falcons defense already ranked last in pass defense DVOA and EPA — and now down its best defensive back, and one of the betters corners in the league, AJ Terrell — ahead, I am hammering the Over and hitting Moore to record 75+ receiving yards. 

DJ Moore Prop: Over 61.5 receiving yards (-115)

London calling 

The NFL's long-standing punishment toward its international fans continues this weekend, as London is forced to watch Russell Wilson's Broncos vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars. That doesn't sound very good at all, so let's give ourselves a rooting interest beyond, well, the Broncos and Jaguars.

Amid a broken Denver offense, a valuable weapon has emerged for Wilson in the form of seam-stretching rookie tight end Greg Dulcich.

Since making his debut two weeks ago, Dulcich has slid right into the offense and become a regular contributor, playing over 60% of snaps, running a route on 71.6% of Wilson's dropbacks, and earning a 17.1% target share. A promising two-catch, 44-yard debut was followed up with earning nine targets and turning them into six catches and 51 yards a week ago. 

With Jerry Jeudy continuing to underwhelm and the running back corps managed in a confounding manner, Denver's offense needs a secondary weapon beyond Courtland Sutton — and Dulcich is well-positioned to be that guy.

That certainly looks to be the case this week against the Jags in a matchup with another rookie, Devin Lloyd. Few rookies have gotten worse treatment from the opposition this year than Lloyd, who is being located and exploited in coverage repeatedly. 

Quarterbacks are completing 80% of passes against Lloyd in coverage this season, with the nadir two weeks ago when the Colts picked on him repeatedly with Deon Jackson and Kylen Granson in the passing game.

Nathaniel Hackett looks increasingly lost and red-faced with every week but even he and Denver's offensive brass will be able to do the simple thing — forcing Lloyd into space and exposing him. With a line of 29.5 yards this week, after posting 44- and 51-yard games to start his career, I like Dulcich to go Over in London and am also going to hit the Over on his longest reception prop of 16.5 yards.

Greg Dulcich Prop: Over 29.5 yards (-114)

No more Ben to blame

Despite clearly not being a great receiver, in an era that sees great talent join the receiver ranks on a yearly basis, Diontae Johnson skated by an awful lot of criticism early in his career as people were (justifiably) happy to chuck blame at Ben Roethlisberger.

Yet here we are, in this bright, new, post-Ben society... and Johnson looks like the same receiver he always has been. A wonderful technician at the position, sure, but a limited receiver with unreliable hands. Johnson's flaws have been glaring this season, with the Steelers wideout dead last in the NFL among qualifying receivers in yards per target (5.0).

That per-target regression from last year, of nearly two full yards (6.9 in '21), is a damning indictment of Johnson as his target share has remained nearly the same (28.5% to 27.2%) but he isn't restricted by Roethlisberger's faded arm and an overwhelming desire to get the ball out immediately. 

In fact, quite incredibly, Johnson's yards per target has dropped by nearly the same amount his average depth of target has grown, from 8.2 to 10.5. The quarterback play in Pittsburgh has been problematic, but so much of Johnson's production — or lack thereof — falls at his feet.

Now, with George Pickens' star shining more and more brightly, Johnson's headed into a matchup with the league's best 1-2 corner tandem in James Bradberry and Darius Slay, and a secondary ranked second in pass defense DVOA and first in EPA. 

Despite seeing the lowest total of his season up to this point, I expect Johnson to go Under his yards total for the fourth time in 2022.   

Diontae Johnson Prop: Under 49.5 receiving yards (-115)

NFL Week 8 prop betting card

• Murray Over 30.5 rushing yards (-114 at BetMGM)
• Pitts Under 35.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)

     - - 

• McLaurin Over 58.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
• Harris Under 67.5 total yards (-110 at BetMGM)

     - - 

• Moore Over 61.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)
• Dulcich Over 29.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
• Johnson Under 49.5 receiving yards (-115 at BetMGM)

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