Welcome to the NFL Playoffs!
That may mean going from 16 games per week to six, but there's no shortage of available value in the NFL player props market.
Now, I've generally done five picks per week, but considering the opening round of the postseason has six games, I'm going to keep it simple: One prop for each game.
With action going from Saturday afternoon to Monday night, here are my best bets for Wild Card Weekend.
NFL Wild Card Weekend prop picks
Johnston o42.5 rec yards (-114)
Warren o19.5 rec yards (-110)
Mims long rec 30+ yards (+230)
Jacobs o16.5 rush attempts (-110)
Irving long rec o12.5 yards (-110)
Stafford 250+ pass yards (+122)
Click on each pick to see full analysis.
NFL prop picks for Wild Card Weekend
Quentin Johnston Over 42.5 receiving yards (-114)
Ladd McConkey is the WR1 for the Los Angeles Chargers, but second-year wideout Quentin Johnston has become a consistent contributor for the Bolts to end the season.
He's posted at least five catches and 45 yards in four of his last five games, including a 13-catch, 186-yard explosion in Week 18, and he faces a yardage total of 42.5 on Saturday vs. the Houston Texans.
The 6-foot-4 receiver has emerged as the team's primary deep threat down the stretch, while Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh has noted the growing chemistry between the sophomore and QB Justin Herbert, which lines up with Johnston leading all L.A. receivers with a 31% target rate against zone coverage — which the Texans deploy at a Top-10 rate in the league.
Houston has allowed 21 pass catchers to top 45 yards over its last eight games, and with Johnston almost exclusively lined up out wide, he will likely line up against:
- Derek Stingley Jr. (Houston's top CB but four inches shorter than Johnston)
- Kamari Lassiter (Promising rookie but also giving up four inches and has allowed a 68% catch rate when targeted in zone over last eight games)
- Jeff Okudah (Has struggled in parts of five games this season and is coming out of concussion protocol)
Johnston will often have a matchup advantage, with the added benefit of extra attention on McConkey, and his big-play ability means he can get most of this total in one shot. Industry projections range as high as 53 yards for him on Saturday, adding a little extra confidence that he will continue his strong play into the postseason.
Pick: Quentin Johnston Over 42.5 receiving yards (-114 at FanDuel)
Pick made on 1-9
Jaylen Warren Over 19.5 receiving yards (-110)
Despite being a Steelers/Ravens matchup, this game has the biggest blowout potential with the Pittsburgh Steelers catching 10 points... as the offense has cratered, the defense has allowed 24+ points in five of its last seven games, and Baltimore is looking as good as it has at any point this season.
All that to say: Pittsburgh will be chasing points all game and passing a lot, which is great for running back Jaylen Warren's snap count — and his receiving yardage total.
Warren may cede touches to backfield mate Najee Harris in the running game, but he has established himself as the clear first option in the backfield for passing situations, averaging 27 yards per game over the final nine weeks (with 19+ yards seven times).
More telling, however, is that during that stretch, he played 53% or more of offensive snap counts in 4/5 losses... and 45% or lower in 3/4 wins.
Industry projections for Warren sit around 25 yards for the Steelers' back on Sunday, giving a little buffer as I cheer for Pittsburgh constantly playing catch-up.
Pick: Jaylen Warren Over 19.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Pick made on 1-9
Marvin Mims longest reception 30+ yards (+230)
Denver Broncos fans have been pleading for Marvin Mims to get more touches for two seasons now. Head Coach Sean Payton has finally heard their call... and boy has it ever paid off.
The receiver has broken out in the back half of the season, averaging 62 yards per game over his last seven contests, with his calling card being his breakaway speed: He led the NFL in average separation, yards after catch per reception, and expected YAC per reception (per NFL Next Gen Stats).
Payton draws up several different ways to get the ball in his hands each week, because he's a home-run threat on every play, which is why I love his longest reception prop for the Sunday matinee against the Buffalo Bills.
Now, his prop is set at 19.5 yards, a number he's topped in six of his seven breakout games, but I'm putting the "wild" in Wild Card Weekend and going with his alt-total of a 30+-yard catch — which he also did in each of those six games.
Mims had a long catch of 37, 37, 93, 53, 51, and 32 yards in those matchups... with half of them coming on passes behind the line of scrimmage.
Much like Warren, the game script can also help here: Denver is a 9.5-point underdog and the Bills' offense is one of the league's best, meaning we could see a pass-heavy Broncos offense for much of the game.
However, where the Ravens defense has tightened up, Buffalo's defense has been just so-so, giving up 320 passing yards and 16 completions of 20+ yards (plus four of 30+ yards) over its last four meaningful games — two of which were against the Jets and Patriots.
Even if the weather is messy in Orchard Park (right now the forecast is cold but with minimal wind and little chance of precipitation), Mims' ability to turn short passes into big gains still makes this a live play, and at better than 2/1 odds, I just can't say no.
Pick: Marvin Mims longest reception 30+ yards (+230 at bet365)
Pick made on 1-9
Josh Jacobs Over 16.5 rushing attempts (-114)
The Green Bay Packers are limping into the postseason, with Christian Watson out, Jordan Love dealing with an elbow injury, and half the defense on the injury report — with the explosive Philadelphia Eagles offense on tap.
The Pack will have to rely on their star offensive weapon, running back Josh Jacobs, and I expect him to get a heavy workload Sunday afternoon.
Now, I get that this sounds counterintuitive considering the Eagles are a Top-10 run defense, but the secondary and pass rush have made great strides as the season has progressed; Green Bay may need to both protect Love AND keep Philly's offense (cough cough Saquon Barkley cough cough) off the field.
Staying committed to the run is a challenge, but the Packers have proven up for it, finishing fifth in the NFL in rushing attempts. Jacobs has also logged 17+ carries in each of his last six competitive games, with exceptions being six carries in Week 18 (where the backups played the second half) and 13 carries in a 34-0 blowout win in Week 16 (he was rested early).
Industry projections range as high as 19.4 carries for Jacobs on Sunday, bolstering the notion that Green Bay will be ground-and-pound.
Pick: Josh Jacobs Over 16.5 rushing attempts (-114 at FanDuel)
Pick made on 1-9
Bucky Irving longest reception Over 12.5 yards (-110)
If you know me, you know I'm a card-carrying member of the #TeamBucky (no, not the Winter Soldier... but he's cool too) fan club, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers rookie RB is a highlight reel waiting to happen.
Bucky Irving has established himself as the top running back in Tampa's backfield, but he's also slowly getting more work in the passing game each week — where he has shown an ability to create massive chunk plays week-in-and-week-out.
Our colleague Todd Fuhrman mentioned on this week's episode of the Sharp 600 podcast that the Washington Commanders are one of the league's worst run defenses and could sell out to stop the run, forcing quarterback Baker Mayfield to take to the air. With star WR Mike Evans set to face his longtime nemesis Marshon Lattimore and safety blanket TE Cade Otton still questionable to play with a knee injury, Baker might be a little limited in his passing options.
He'll certainly take some downfield shots to fellow rookie Jalen McMillan, but I wouldn't be surprised — especially if the Commanders do key in on shutting down the ground game — to see more passes heading Irving's way, acting as de facto handoffs.
And once the ball is in his hands... anything is possible: He's recorded a reception of 12+ yards in nine of his last 12 games, topping this number seven times.
This is expected to be a shootout, sitting at the highest total of Wild Card Weekend, and with Irving increasingly becoming a focal point of this offense, I'm expecting him to continue delivering explosive plays... both on the ground and through the air.
Pick: Bucky Irving longest reception Over 12.5 yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Pick made on 1-9
Matthew Stafford 250+ passing yards (+122)
Let's finish off with another alt-total, shall we?
Matthew Stafford's passing total is generally around 240.5, but FanDuel is offering it at 235.5 — and for 14 more yards you can add 30 cents of value to this prop.
The Los Angeles Rams QB struggled a bit down the stretch, posting 189 or fewer passing yards in four of his last five games, but three of those contests came on the road — whereas he averaged 284 yards per game in his previous four home games before a Week 17 dud. A week off to reset should do him (and HC Sean McVay) well... as will a matchup with a Minnesota Vikings team that has seen their pass defense decline as the season has rolled on.
Minnesota gave up 255 passing yards per game over its first nine contests, with that number jumping up to 271 ypg in the final half of the season, with their sack total dropping by one-third as well.
The Vikings are also one of the most zone-heavy defenses in the league, a situation where Stafford's favorite target, star WR Puka Nacua, thrives — he leads all qualified pass-catchers in yards per route run and target rate vs. zone.
This game also has a high total, and if the run game struggles, Los Angeles' offense will need to drive through the veteran QB. He finished with 279 yards (with Nacua going for 106) against the Vikings in Week 8, and industry projections range as high as 278 for him on Monday night.
His regular line is very much strong play, but I love getting solid plus money for adding just 10 yards to what most operators are offering.
Pick: Matthew Stafford 250+ passing yards (+122 at FanDuel)
Pick made on 1-9
NFL Wild Card Weekend prop betting card
- Quentin Johnston Over 42.5 receiving yards (-114)
- Jaylen Warren Over 19.5 receiving yards (-110)
- Marvin Mims longest reception 30+ yards (+230)
- Josh Jacobs Over 16.5 rushing attempts (-114)
- Bucky Irving longest reception Over 12.5 yards (-110)
- Matthew Stafford 250+ passing yards (+122)
Last week: 3-1, +1.97 units
Season: 40-39, -3.71 units
Not intended for use in MA.
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