Two of the top contenders in the AFC will face off on Sunday Night Football this week, as the Cincinnati Bengals play host to the Buffalo Bills. This matchup will keep the NFL player props market busy as the game is littered with star power.
These two teams are meeting for the first time since last year’s playoffs when the Bengals beat the Bills 27-10 in Buffalo. This time around, the NFL odds make Cincinnati a slight home favorite, but the 1.5-point line suggests that this game is a virtual tossup.
I have a few NFL picks I like in tonight’s game, which I’ll dive into below with a look at the latest SNF odds.
If you’re looking for full coverage of this matchup, check out our Bills vs. Bengals picks and predictions, as well as a focused article on our best Joe Burrow odds for the evening.
Bills vs Bengals SNF props
- Diggs anytime TD (+130 at Caesars)
- Allen Over 271.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
- Mixon Under 16.5 rush attempts (-120 at BetMGM)
Picks made on November 5 at 6:00 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Bills vs Bengals SNF props
Prop bet #1: Can you Diggs it?
Even with what amounted to a disappointment for Stefon Diggs odds last week, Josh Allen still targeted his favorite wide receiver a dozen times, leading to nine receptions for 70 yards. Diggs has had at least six receptions and seven targets in every game this year, and we shouldn’t expect anything less in a big Sunday Night Football battle.
Diggs also has six touchdowns on the year, scoring in four of Buffalo’s eight games. He’ll have plenty of opportunities against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that has had some difficulty slowing down effective passing games this year.
Opponents are averaging 7.2 yards per attempt and 11.5 yards per completion against Cincinnati this season, both of which rank in the Bottom 4 of the NFL. Even in a losing effort, Brock Purdy put up 365 yards and threw a touchdown pass last week against the Bengals, while Geno Smith racked up 326 yards in Cincinnati’s previous outing.
I like Allen's odds to have a similar advantage of the Bengals secondary, and Diggs will be the receiver most likely to benefit. I’m backing Diggs to score on Sunday night, especially at the generous plus number we can get on his anytime touchdown prop bet.
Stefon Diggs prop: Anytime TD (+130 at Caesars)
Prop bet #2: All in on Allen
Speaking of Josh Allen odds, he’s been on a roll all year long — at least, that’s true when it comes to prop bettors and fantasy players. Allen has thrown 17 touchdowns on the year, including at least two in each of his last five games. He’s also eclipsed the 300-yard barrier three times, including in last week’s 24-18 win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Allen has also been asked to air out the ball over the last month. He has thrown at least 40 passes in three of his last four games, and that volume is likely to continue in what should be a competitive matchup against the Bengals on Sunday night.
As I noted in my Diggs bet, the Bengals aren’t exactly tough against the passing game. Cincy is 21st in the NFL overall in passing yardage allowed, giving up 232.1 yards per game throughout the air. While the Bengals have been generating a fair number of interceptions, that’s not stopping anyone from throwing against them... and Allen should join the party this week.
Sportsbooks have set Allen’s passing yardage prop at just 271.5 yards, a number Allen has surpassed in four of his first eight games, and against the Bengals, he should be able to air the ball out — even if he adds to his interception total at the same time. I’m taking the Over.
Josh Allen prop: Over 271.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Mixon in other backs
Joe Mixon has been the undisputed king of the Cincinnati backfield this year, going for 453 yards on 112 carries. Those numbers account for an incredible usage rate, as Mixon accounts for 81.9% of the Bengals' rushing yardage and 75.7% of their carries this season.
However, that doesn’t mean Mixon has been getting a particularly heavy workload. The RB has only received 17 or more carries twice this season, and in four games, he’s gotten less than 15 touches out of the backfield.
Mixon might be in line for even less work on Sunday night. The star RB is listed as questionable due to a chest injury, which limited him in practice earlier in the week. The Bengals think he’s likely to play, but the soreness could potentially mean that other backs get a few carries here and there, impacting any Joe Mixon odds.
Even if Mixon is used as much as ever, his prop of 16.5 rushing attempts seems a bit high given his overall production. If there’s any question at all about shifting a few of his carries to someone else due to soreness or a lingering injury, then that number will be entirely out of range this week. I’m backing the Under, which is available at a fair price at several books considering his previous output and the uncertainty around him this weekend.
Joe Mixon prop: Pick (-120 at BetMGM)
Not intended for use in MA.
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