The Buffalo Bills will look to keep their two-game lead in the AFC East on Sunday as they travel to Denver to take on the Broncos in the first game of the NFL’s Saturday doubleheader.
With only three games to go, Buffalo still has a shot at the top spot in the conference, but a No. 2 seed is more reasonable. Sean McDermott and his Bills can’t afford to take the Broncos easily, as Denver beat the Panthers last week 32-27 and has covered three of its last four.
Buffalo opened as six-point favorites, but that number has ticked up to -6.5 with a total of 50.
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos Betting Preview
Weather
It will be a brisk December game at Empower Field at Mile High on Saturday, with expected game-time temperatures in the mid-40s. Clear skies and light winds are also in the forecast. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Bills: Jaquan Johnson S (Out), John Brown WR (Out).
Broncos: Phillip Lindsay RB (Questionable), Melvin Gordon III RB (Questionable), Graham Glasgow G (Questionable), Brandon McManus K (Out), Noah Fant TE (Questionable), Duke Dawson CB (Out), Kevin Toliver II CB (Out), Bryce Callahan CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a SU win. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Broncos.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Buffalo picked up an impressive win last week despite Pittsburgh's pass rush being in QB Josh Allen’s grill early and often. The No. 7-rated QB, Allen stood tall and found a way to win a tough game in primetime, silencing haters for another week. The ATS win marked their fifth straight cover against the spread.
Despite their success, the Bills have been a 6-point-or-more favorite just once this year: an 18-10 win against the Jets where the Bills were 9.5-point faves and failed to cover.
Denver has yet to be the favorite this year and owns the league’s worst offense per Football Outsiders. Buffalo's defense has run hot and cold all year, but looked the part last Sunday. Their underachieving secondary finally got the job done against the Steelers, but it’s their run defense that could win them Saturday’s game.
Over the last three weeks, opponents are gaining just 69.7 rush yards per game against the Bills — the second-best mark in the league. Denver has been running the ball a lot of late with a 32:21 run-to-pass per game ratio over the last three games. If Buffalo can force the Denver offense to beat them through the air, it could be an easy victory.
The Broncos are also coming into this game thin at defensive back, as Duke Dawson tore his ACL and A.J. Bouye is suspended. Denver still has one of the best coverage corners in Bryce Callahan, but Buffalo’s supporting cast of Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis could exploit this weakness in the Denver defense.
PREDICTION: Buffalo -6.5 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
Denver rolled into Carolina last week riding a four-game Under streak. Their offense finally got some points against a bottom-10 Panthers defense, as its 32 points was the most it has scored since October 1, a stretch of nine games. In their six games at home this year, the Broncos have managed more than 20 points just once.
With Denver’s infatuation with the run comes a slow-paced offense that is running only 54 plays per game since Week 12 — the fewest plays in the league over that stretch. QB Drew Lock is coming off his best game ever last week, but he'd also thrown 13 interceptions in his previous seven games. Slow and turnover-prone, this offense is.
Without John Brown, this Buffalo offense has failed to match production (although Davis is getting better each week). Buffalo is 1-3 O/U in the last four games Brown has missed. Brown is eligible to return this week, but if Brown suits up, he could be limited, with a trip to the thin air and a short week.
The Under is 4-2 at Empower Field this year and Denver has yet to see a total as high as 50 points at home in 2020.
PREDICTION: Under 50 (-110)
Team Prop Pick
6.5 points is a lot on the road, especially in Denver. If the Bills don’t give us a let-down spot on Saturday afternoon, Josh Allen and Co. should walk away with a victory against one of the most offensively-challenged teams in the league.
Taking big favorites to win wire-to-wire is a great way to find value without taking all the chalk. For our tickets to cash, we would need the Bills to be leading at half time and after full time. This is also called double-result in many books and is a prop bet that is usually available early in the week.
At -115, we have to take the big road favorites, even with the Bills getting less time to prepare and traveling out West. If you’re hesitant to take the Bills -6.5, perhaps the Buffalo double result could tickle your fancy.
PREDICTION: Double result: Buffalo Bills — Buffalo Bills (-115)
Bills vs Broncos Betting Card
- Buffalo -6.5 (-110)
- Under 50 (-110)
- Double result: Buffalo Bills — Buffalo Bills (-115)
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