In what seemed like a possible Super Bowl matchup a month ago, the sliding Buffalo Bills will head south to take on the Tampa Buccaneers and face a familiar foe in Tom Brady as 3-point road dogs in Week 14.
Can Sean McDermott finally beat Brady, who is 6-0 SU versus the Bills’ head coach, and 32-3 SU versus Buffalo over his career? Can the Bills shake off a 3-4 SU stretch and stay in the playoff race? Find out in our Bills vs. Buccaneers free NFL picks and predictions for Sunday, December 12.
Bills vs Buccaneers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line was Tampa Bay -3.5 on the look-ahead and opened at an expensive -3 or -3.5. It then touched Tampa -3 and has shown movement back to the -3.5. The total opened at 53 and has inched up to 53.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Bills vs Buccaneers predictions
Predictions made on 12/09/2021 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Bills vs Buccaneers game info
• Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
• Date: Sunday, December 12, 2021
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Bills at Buccaneers betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Bills: Carlos Basham DE (Out), Vernon Butler DT (Out), Cody Ford OG (Out), Damar Hamlin S (Out), Zack Moss RB (Out), Tre’Davious White DB (Out), Star Lotulelei DT (Out), Tommy Sweeney TE (Out).
Buccaneers: Pierre Desir CB (Out), Steve McLendon DT (Out), Scott Miller WR (Out), Kyle Trask QB (Out), Mike Edwards S (Out), Antonio Brown WR (Out), Jordan Whitehead S (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 6-0 in the Bills’ last six games as an underdog. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Buccaneers.
Bills vs Buccaneers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Week 13’s loss to the Patriots aside, the Bills have not looked like their 2020 selves for the majority of this season. They are an average team in explosive plays, which is in big contrast to last year, where Brian Daboll’s offense was third in the league in explosive passes and Top 10 in rushes of over 10 yards. Defenses have adjusted, which is creating problems for Josh Allen and the offense that's scoring less and gaining fewer yards per game than a season ago.
Over their last seven games, the Bills lost to a great running team in Tennessee, won vs. Miami after being tied 3-3 at the half, lost 9-6 in Jacksonville, won over Mike White and the Jets, got beat down at home by the Colts (another great running team), won vs. a terrible New Orleans team, and finally, Week 13’s loss to the Pats where Mac Jones passed the ball three times. This is not an overreaction on the Bills, they haven’t beaten (or covered) versus anyone good since October 10.
Now the one-dimensional team from Buffalo sits 7th in the AFC playoff race, but with the Falcons, Jets and Panthers in three of their next five, the Bills could coast into a playoff spot at 10-7. A win versus the Bucs would help their cause in Week 14, but facing a Tampa team that beat the Colts in Indianapolis two games ago shows the difference in these two clubs at the moment.
The Bills were 7-point favorites vs. the Colts three weeks ago and lost that game 41-15. The Bucs played the Colts the following week on the road and won 38-31 as 3-point road favorites. The spreads indicate that these two teams were rated roughly the same (5-point favorites on neutral ground vs. Indy, if assuming two points for home-field advantage) but the recent success has the Bucs as a 2-point favorite vs. Buffalo on a neutral field, which is a fair number and could actually be a little short.
Tom Brady has beaten the Bills more than any QB in football history has beaten one team. His 32-3 SU mark versus the Bills stands for itself, and Brady is 6-0 SU versus current Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott. Tampa has all their passing weapons going (minus Antonio Brown) and could even run the ball against the Bills like in their win over the Colts. Buffalo has not won a game this year if its opponent scores more than 21 points and now faces a Bucs' pass defense that sits seventh in dropback EPA/play.
We're well aware of how recency bias works. But, facing an offense that has scored 98 points over the last three weeks, averages a league-best 38.4 points per game at home, and will see a Buffalo defense that is both without Tre’Davious White and is on short rest, this is a bad spot for a Buffalo team that couldn’t even stop the run with 11 guys in the box on Monday.
Prediction: Buccaneers -3 (-115)
Over/Under analysis
Going from the winds of Buffalo to the sunshine of Florida should help the Bills offense. Don’t get us wrong, we’re still on the Bucs here, but the average total score in Tampa has been 55.2 total points this season and neither tea, is afraid to throw the ball as they both sit in the Top 10 in pass attempts per game.
A pass-first team like Buffalo matches up well against the Buccaneers and their stout run defense from an Over perspective. Teams are averaging just 17.8 carries per game versus Tampa at home this year, and with the Bills rushing the ball just 23 times per over their last three games, seeing 40-plus pass attempts from Allen is a good possibility. The Tampa Bay pass defense is still missing pieces in the secondary and sits 15th in dropback success rate. The Bills’ offense has bounced back well this season after putting up duds and has averaged 37 points after failing to score 20 points in the previous game.
Offensively, the Bucs should be able to do what they want versus the Buffalo defense. Leonard Fournette has been a big piece of the offensive success this season and will see less of a crowd at the line of scrimmage than New England running backs saw in Week 13. Buffalo knew the run was coming and still let the Patriots rush for 222 yards on 46 carries. In the air, the loss of Tre’Davious White is massive at corner, especially with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski back at full health. The Tampa Bay offense ranks No. 1 in EPA/play, No. 1 in overall success rate, No. 3 in dropback success rate, and No. 1 in rushing success rate. The scary thing is Brady and the offense are even better at home.
This number has begun to creep upwards after opening at 53. Tampa is 4-1 to the Over on totals of 52 or higher while the Bills are 2-0 to the Over.
Prediction: Over 53.5 (-110)
Best bet
We're trusting the market on this one and getting our Tampa Bay -3 locked in before it hits -3.5, as it's starting to move across the board. Although we aren’t huge fans of trends, it’s hard to ignore the success that Brady has had against this Buffalo team over his career. The Bills, unfortunately, picked a back week to face the Buccaneers as the offense is balanced and rolling while Buffalo comes in with one day less to prepare.
Facing the pressure and succeeding hasn’t been the Bills’ M/O and with Buffalo slipping in the playoff race, it will take a near-perfect performance from Allen and the Bills Sunday. From what we’ve seen from them over the last seven games, there are a few holes in their game at the moment.
We’re taking the MVP frontrunner and the Super Bowl betting favorites and laying three points with them.
Pick: Buccaneers -3 (-115)
