The rivalry between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs has been one-sided so far, with Kansas City beating Buffalo in three straight postseason meetings.
The Bills were able to get the better of the Chiefs in the regular season — a win that won’t mean squat if Josh Allen & Co. can’t get past their playoff boogeyman in Sunday’s 2025 AFC Championship Game.
My Bills vs. Chiefs predictions know Buffalo needs a team effort to punch their ticket to Super Bowl LIX, which means a lethal dose of the run game and a big day from running back James Cook. Here are my NFL picks for tonight's AFC title game.
Bills vs Chiefs prediction
- Spread prediction: Bills +1.5 (-105 at BetMGM)
- Moneyline prediction: Bills moneyline (+110 at BetMGM)
- Over/Under prediction: Under 47.5 (-110 at BetMGM)
- Best bet: James Cook Over 54.5 rushing yards (-135 at BetMGM)
Bills vs Chiefs spread
If you read my weekly NFL Underdogs column, you know I’m breaking out the table with Bills Mafia in the AFC title game. I bet Buffalo +2, putting my faith in Allen to be the difference maker. The spread now rests at +1.5.
The soon-to-be MVP has a different playbook around him than past run-ins with the Chiefs, swapping out the deeper downfield threats for bigger targets who can bully their way into space, catch the short pass, and pick up yards after the catch.
Bills vs Chiefs moneyline
Now, betting Buffalo ATS is not an endorsement of the Bills to win outright. However, with the short spread, that's a very possible outcome.
Buffalo is priced at +110 on the moneyline, giving it an implied win probability of around 48%. Kansas City is a -130 moneyline favorite at home, boasting a 56.5% implied win probability.
Behind the key numbers (most common margins like 3, 6, 7, and 10), a 1-point finish is the seventh-most frequent margin for NFL games since 2000. So, bet the Bills moneyline at your own risk.
Final score prediction: Bills 23, Chiefs 20.
Bills vs Chiefs Over/Under
This number opened at 48.5 points, and that’s where I bet the Under on Sunday night. It has since dipped to 47.5 O/U. I still like the Under with the total on the high side of the key number of 47 points.
Neither offense is especially explosive, and these rivals know each other very well. The Bills have anchored their attack in the run game during the postseason and will go after a KC run stop that has shown cracks in recent outings. The Chiefs play one of the most methodical paces in the league. Both approaches will lead to long, extended drives and fewer points.
Bills vs Chiefs best bet
James Cook Over 54.5 rushing yards (-135 at BetMGM)
My analysis
The Buffalo Bills have really leaned into the ground game in the playoffs. The Bills ran 36 times for 147 yards in the win over the Baltimore Ravens in the Divisional Round, and handed off 44 times for 210 yards on the ground in the Wild Card victory over the Denver Broncos.
At the center of the rushing playbook is James Cook. The Bills running back doesn’t waste time finding him groove on the ground, with the team’s opening drives featuring a relentless commitment to the run.
Cook marched for 120 yards against the Broncos and 67 yards versus the Ravens — two of the elite run-stop units in the NFL this season. He won’t find as much pushback from the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night.
Kansas City has watched its run defense come undone in recent games. The Chiefs ranked 17th in EPA allowed per carry from Week 15 to Week 17 (rested starters in Week 18) and then got pushed around by the Houston Texans, who rumbled for almost 150 yards in the Divisional Round (5.1 yards per carry).
Running backs have enjoyed big days against K.C. in that span. Houston’s Joe Mixon finished with 88 yards last weekend, both of the Pittsburgh Steelers RBs topped 70 yards in Week 17, and Cleveland Browns rusher Jerome Ford went for 84 yards in Week 15.
Not only does a ground-centric strategy exploit Kansas City’s soft spot on defense and keep the Chiefs’ blitz-happy schemes honest — alleviating pressure on Allen — but it allows Buffalo to control possession and keep Patrick Mahomes and the K.C. offense on the sideline.
We saw Buffalo do just that in its 30-21 win over Kansas City in Week 11. The Bills ran 31 times for 104 yards but ate up more than 34 minutes with the football. Cook finished with only 20 yards on nine carries but has been a much bigger part of the playbook ever since.
Cook’s player forecasts for the AFC Championship Game all come in north of his rushing yards total of 54.5 O/U, with a ceiling of closer to 70 yards. My number wasn’t as bullish but I still project Cook to finish with at least 64 rushing yards in the AFC Championship Game.
Get more analysis from Jason by watching the Sharp 600 podcast!
Get more Conference Championship picks (and best bets) from Jason — and co-host Todd Fuhrman — by checking out the Sharp 600 podcast!
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Bills vs Chiefs same-game parlay (SGP)
James Cook 50+ rushing yards
Bills +2
Under 47.5
Cook’s forecasts all sit well above 50 yards rushing, and the Bills have been focused on the ground game in the playoffs.
Josh Allen and the Bills have their best shot of “slaying the dragon” this season. This offense has the diversity to pick apart this K.C. defense.
These two offenses aren’t the high-flying attacks we’ve seen in the past. This game could end up a lowing-scoring grinder, and I’ll go Under with the total on the high side of the key number.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Bills vs Chiefs odds
Bills vs Chiefs live odds
Bills vs Chiefs opening odds
- Spread: Buffalo +1 | Kansas City -1
- Moneyline: Buffalo +105 | Kansas City -125
- Over/Under: Over 48 | Under 48
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
Bills vs Chiefs spread and Over/Under analysis
- Kansas City opened as a 1-point home favorite, and we’ve seen that spread move toward the home team, with the market consensus at Chiefs -2.
- The Over/Under opened as tall as 48.5 and trimmed a point with early action on the Under. These rivals did go Over the closing total of 47.5 in Buffalo’s 30-21 win over K.C. in Week 11.
- According to BetMGM, 58% of ticket count is on Buffalo, but Kansas City has drawn bigger bets, with 55% of handle riding on the Chiefs. The total has drawn 59% of ticket count and 68% of handle on the Over, but has still moved shorter.
Bills vs Chiefs betting trend to know
Six of the last nine playoff games in Arrowhead Stadium have played Under the total. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Chiefs.
How to watch Bills vs Chiefs game info
| Location | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO |
| Date | Sunday, 1-26-2025 |
| Kickoff | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Bills vs Chiefs latest injuries
Bills vs Chiefs weather
Game-time temperatures are around freezing and will “feel like” 25 degrees once the whistle blows on the AFC title game, but this is mild weather for Kansas City in late January. Cold weather is nothing new to these clubs, with the Bills and Chiefs used to frigid conditions.
Sustained winds are expected at 6 mph, with gusts topping out at 11 mph and blowing WNW from corner to corner with little to no impact on deeper passes, punts, or kicks.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
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