The final matchup of the NFL Divisional Round is the de facto AFC Championship game, as the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs are regarded by many to be the top two teams in the conference.
It’s a star-studded matchup with the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs, and Travis Kelce, just to name a few. But in a game with so many big names and everything on the line, where is the NFL betting value in the player prop market?
Find out in our free player props and predictions for the Bills vs. Chiefs.
Bills vs Chiefs prop picks
- Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 rushing yards (-115)
- Gabriel Davis Over 35.5 receiving yards (-115)
- Harrison Butker Over 1.5 field goals (-120)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bills vs Chiefs Divisional Round props
Punish the pass rush
This is going to be one of the toughest games to predict on NFL Divisional weekend but one thing we do know is that Patrick Mahomes is going to be under pressure from the Buffalo Bills. The Bills led the NFL in quarterback pressure rate (30.8) this season and in the earlier meeting, they pressured Mahomes nine times, sacking him twice.
Of course, Mahomes is also known for his creativity to escape pressure in the pocket and isn’t afraid to tuck the ball and run. In that game against the Bills, he ended up rushing eight times for 61 yards. Mahomes’ rushing total is on the board at 24.5, a number he has gone Over that number eight times this season, including the last three games in a row.
I fully expect the Bills to create more pressure on Mahomes in this matchup as well and for him to scramble more than a few times and eclipse his rushing yard total once again.
PICK: Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 rushing yards (-115 at FanDuel)
Secondary option thrives
This game may come down to which quarterback, Mahomes or Josh Allen, can make the most plays, and Allen has found a new weapon he has taken a liking to in wideout Gabriel Davis.
Davis has basically supplanted Cole Beasley as the Bills' No. 3 receiver. Davis has played 84.6 percent of the Bills’ offensive snaps over the last five games while Beasley has played just about 44 percent of snaps over his last four games. That includes Davis out-snapping Beasley 40-17 in last week’s Wild Card victory over the Patriots.
Davis has been a reliable secondary option for Allen down the stretch, hauling in 22 catches for 325 yards over the last seven games. More importantly, he has put up 39 or more yards six times over that seven-game stretch.
The Chiefs' pass defense is not great, ranking 23rd in DVOA, and they will certainly be keying on Diggs and Dawson Knox, so that should create more opportunities for Davis to put some work in and go Over his receiving yards total in this one.
PICK: Gabriel Davis Over 35.5 receiving yards (-115 at FanDuel)
Kicker club
Who doesn’t love a good kicker prop? (Pat McAfee, where you at?) The Chiefs have one of the best kickers in the business in Harrison Butker.
Butker has hit 90.1 % of his field goal attempts over his six-season career, but what makes him so dangerous is that he has accuracy from distance. Butker hit seven of his nine field goal attempts from 50 yards or beyond this season. That was the fourth most 50-plus yarders in the league.
That means Andy Reid isn’t afraid to send him out there when need be.
Butker has also hit two or more field goals eight times in his last 10 games and hit both of his attempts against the Bills back in Week 5. The matchup with the Bills also helps. Buffalo has an excellent red zone defense and is solid, allowing opposing teams to score touchdowns in just 53.2% of their red zone trips which should equate to more field goal opportunities.
We’re betting Butker nails a few more in a matchup that should be very tight.
PICK: Harrison Butker Over 1.5 field goals (-120 at DraftKings)
Same-Game parlay for Bills vs Chiefs
- Patrick Mahomes Over 24.5 rushing yards
- Josh Allen Over 51.5 rushing yards
- Gabriel Davis Over 35.5 receiving yards
Best odds: +692 at FanDuel
For the same game parlay, we are keeping the Davis and Mahomes props. Now, let’s add another quarterback rushing yard prop to the mix and throw in Allen to go Over 51.5 rushing yards. He went for 59 yards in the early season meeting against the Chiefs and has gone Over that number in four straight games while averaging over 11 yards per carry over his last two. On top of that, Chiefs defensive lineman Chris Jones will inevitably apply some pressure on the inside, forcing Allen to roll out and make something happen with his legs.
