The Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills will meet in the postseason for the fourth time in the Patrick Mahomes & Josh Allen era, and it’s been Mahomes and the Chiefs coming out on top in each of the first three.
Kansas City is a win away from punching a ticket to Super Bowl 59, and my top NFL picks expect Mahomes and Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce to have a big night against the Bills on Sunday, January 26.
Bills vs Chiefs props
Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-175 at BetMGM)- Kelce Over 70.5 receiving yards (-110 at BetMGM)
Bass Over 1.5 field goals made (+115 at BetMGM)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Bills vs Chiefs prop picks for today
Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 passing touchdowns -175 at BetMGM
The Kansas City Chiefs were only able to rush for 2.3 yards per tote against the Houston Texans last week, so I’m anticipating quarterback Patrick Mahomes attacking through the air early and often Sunday.
It should also be a bit of a mismatch for the KC passing game, with the Buffalo Bills allowing the highest dropback success rate and the sixth-most yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks over their final nine regular-season games.
While I’ve got big-time confidence in the KC stop unit, I’m still expecting Buffalo and QB Josh Allen to put points on the board. So, in turn, I’m also anticipating Mahomes and Co. to keep the pedal to the metal offensively.
Travis Kelce Over 70.5 receiving yards -110 at BetMGM
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce has put on a postseason clinic against the Bills, boasting an average of 8.7 receptions for 96.3 yards across their past three postseason meetings, and I’m expecting more of the same from the go-to KC star.
Kelce’s target share skyrocketed to 25.5% over the final 10 games of the regular season compared to his 20.5% mark to start the year, and he also garnered 32% of Mahomes’ pass attempts against Houston last week.
The Bills have been cooked by the position in recent weeks, too. Sam LaPorta went off for seven receptions and 111 yards on 10 targets in Week 15, and Mark Andrews and Isiah Likely turned their 12 combined targets into nine receptions for 134 yards in last week's AFC Divisional Round clash.
Tyler Bass Over 1.5 field goals made +115 at BetMGM
The Chiefs allowed opponents to turn red-zone trips into touchdowns at the eighth-lowest clip (51.9%) during the regular season, and Houston attempted four field goals against KC last week.
I expect the Kansas City defense to stall multiple Buffalo drives in field-goal range, and the weather forecast at Arrowhead Stadium isn't calling for prohibitive winds. Add Tyler Bass hitting all five of his field-goal attempts across Buffalo’s first two postseason games, and the Bills should be calling his number multiple times on Sunday.
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