The Buffalo Bills and Carolina Panthers will wrap up their preseason action Friday night as Baker Mayfield and the Carolina starters will take on the backups of the Bills.
Sean McDermott is resting his first-teamers, while Matt Rhule has said his starters will play into the second quarter. With Carolina as a near-touchdown favorite, is the quarterback experience of Case Keenum and Matt Barkley being overlooked here?
Find out in my NFL preseason picks and predictions for Bills vs. Panthers.
Bills vs Panthers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Panthers opened as -6 favorites, moved to -7 after the announcement of Buffalo’s starters, and then were bought back down to 6/6.5 on Thursday. The total has also seen plenty of movement after opening at 38, getting smashed as high as 41.5 before falling back down to 39.5 and trending to the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Bills vs Panthers predictions
Predictions made on 8/25/2022 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Bills vs Panthers game info
• Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
• Date: Friday, August 26, 2022
• Kickoff: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NFL Network
Bills at Panthers betting preview
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Betting trend to know
The Bills are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Panthers.
Bills vs Panthers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Spread analysis
Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott will not be playing the majority of his starters Saturday vs. the Panthers but this is a team that has already hung 69 points through two preseason games without much help from its ones.
Backups Matt Barkley and Case Keenum have 71 combined NFL starts between them with the latter producing 64 of those. So far in the preseason, the two signal-callers are a combined 52-for-67 for 567 yards and have put up 69 total points yet opened as a touchdown underdog just because Buffalo won’t be playing its starters.
Case Keenum in the first half:
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) August 20, 2022
16/18
192 yards
TD
(via @BuffaloBills)pic.twitter.com/dNP127VfGD
This is still a dangerous offense that put up 7.7 yards per carry a week ago and sixth RB Raheem Blackshear totaled 79 yards on seven touches.
Even buried rookie receiver Khalil Shakir has impressed and will likely get a long leash Friday night. He’s led the team in receiving in both preseason games with 151 yards.
Buffalo might not be playing its starters, but the Bills have plenty of talent at skilled positions and have an edge that is better than a 6.5-point underdog.
Matt Rhule hasn’t played his starters much at all this preseason but said the majority of them will start Friday. However, it's still unsure how long they will go.
This is a Carolina team that just settled on Baker Mayfield as the starter and the unwanted QB could play into the second quarter. He will, however, be without Christian McCaffrey, receiver Robbie Anderson, tight end Ian Thomas, and center Bradley Bozeman.
Mayfield has not seen many reps with this offense. He saw just one series in Week 1 where he went 4-for-7 for 47 yards plus a fumble (recovered) vs. the Commanders. He didn’t suit up last week. The less the Panthers play P.J. Walker, the better for underdogs.
The spread is just too big for a team that has moved the ball with ease with its backups. Buffalo has more talent deeper into the roster and the experience that Keenum and Barkley bring is worth the ride on the underdog at +6.5. Carolina’s 3.3 yards per play vs. Washington and 4.1 ypp vs. New England is also a red flag.
Prediction: Bills +6.5 (-109 at BetRivers)
Over/Under analysis
The Bills have hit the Over in both of their preseason games despite McDermott running his backups for the majority of the snaps. Now this offense, which has totaled 879 yards in the preseason and rushed for over 200 yards last week, faces a Carolina defense that has allowed at least 350 yards in each of its preseason games.
With such a big spread, this total is a little short as well, especially when I consider the Buffalo offense will keep this game much closer.
The early Carolina offense should be able to move the ball versus the Buffalo backups as the Bills defense is giving up 4.4 yards per play and will see DJ Moore, Chuba Hubbard, and some decent WR depth from the Panthers.
The Bills will also have to see backup QB P.J. Walker, who can create plays but can also turn the ball over as he did a trio of times last week in limited reps. His combination of skill and infatuation with forcing plays aids the Over here as the Bills could be playing with some short fields but Walker can also open things up on occasion.
Final: NE 20, CAR 10
— Augusta Stone (@augustalstone) August 20, 2022
PJ Walker comes in for the last two series. He had a fumble turn into a Pats TD and threw an interception at the end of the game
The Carolina defense has given up a ton of yards despite allowing just 41 points this preseason. Even without the starters, Buffalo should move the ball. With the Panthers running their ones into the second quarter, we could see very few punts early on.
Some books opened this game at 42 and I think the adjustment to 39.5 just because of the Bills’ gameplan is too much.
Prediction: Over 39.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
Best bet
This is a group of Buffalo backups that I’m happy to take 6.5 points even after missing the +7.
Mayfield doesn’t have much experience with the offense and new coordinator Ben McAdoo while three very important pieces of his offense — WR1, RB1, and his starting center — won’t be suiting up Friday.
Keenum brings 64 NFL starts of experience to this Buffalo offense that has totaled almost 900 yards and 69 points in the preseason. Barkley is also a QB we don’t mind riding late in the game.
Bills QB Case Keenum on Saturday: 16-of-18 for 192 yards, TD. PFF grade of 93.1.
— Kyle Odegard (@Kyle_Odegard) August 22, 2022
Always important for a Super Bowl contender to have a solid backup QB.
Some of Buffalo’s best performers in the preseason will also get heavy reps Friday as this is a team that is loaded with talent at receiver and running back — even on the back end of the roster.
Pick: Bills +6.5 (-109 at BetRivers)
