Bills vs Patriots Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 7: Bills Offense Comes to Life in Foxborough

Since going to London in Week 5, the Buffalo Bills have just not looked right offensively. The good news is they can get back on track this week vs. the New England Patriots, who have managed only 35 points over their last four games and enter the Week 7 odds as a hefty 8.5-point home underdog on the NFL odds board. 

With the Bills having averaged over 400 yards and 123 points per game in the three games before the travel, can Josh Allen and the offense dominate Sunday on the road even in poor passing conditions?

Here are my free NFL picks and predictions for Week 7 Bills at Patriots on October 22.

Bills vs Patriots odds

Bills vs Patriots predictions

The Buffalo Bills have had to play back-to-back games when traveling across the Atlantic Ocean and didn’t fare that well despite splitting the games. Now they've reset, are back in North America, and will try to resemble the Week 2 to Week 4 offense that averaged 41 points, 417 yards, and 6.4 yards per game. 

It will also be a great matchup for the Bills as the New England Patriots continue to have injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Jonathan Jones is questionable adding to the injuries to Christian Gonzalez and a trio of other New England defensive backs who are out. 

The weather conditions are a factor here as winds are expected close to 20 mph and there is some rain projected (30%), but Josh Allen is a quarterback I trust in tough winds. The poor performance of the New England offense should be giving the Bills great field position all game. 

Dalton Kincaid is good to go after clearing the concussion protocol. Gabe Davis has four TDs over his last five games and at least 60 yards in three of his last five while Stefon Diggs is one of six receivers averaging 100-plus yards. 

The Patriots have been a much better defense vs. the run and Allen and this offense can exploit the injuries to the secondary and take advantage of one of the worst offenses in football. Buffalo has scored at least 24 points in six of the last seven meetings and topped the 24.5 total in four of the six meetings vs. Mac Jones.   

My best bet: Bills team total Over 24.5 (-103 at Pinnacle)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Bills vs Patriots same-game parlay

Bills team total Over 24.5

Bills to score in every quarter

Patriots team total Under 14.5

20% boost available

+435 +522 at DraftKings

The Buffalo offense will get back on track vs. a Patriots defense dealing with a plethora of injuries. In fact, it's the longest injury report (on a Wednesday) the Pats have dealt with all year. Its injuries on offense will have Buffalo dominating the time of possession. 

Mac Jones might not even finish this game. He's started and completed just two of his last three contests and this weather is not going to help him. Buffalo will score early and often on Sunday and the Pats will continue to plunge towards the bottom of the league. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bills vs Patriots spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bills went to London late on Friday two weeks ago and lost 25-20 to the Jags who dominated time of possession nearly 2-to-1. However, the Bills still had 1.4 yards more per play. They lost plenty of defenders in that game and looked gassed. They followed that up with one of the least exciting prime-time games last week vs. Tyrod Taylor and the Giants where they failed to put up 300 yards of total offense. It was a win but nothing near the 15-point cover. 

Now with a full week in North America, the Bills enter the weekend as a hefty 8.5-point favorite in Foxborough. The Bills were -3 last year in New England in a 24-10 win and Josh Allen over his career has gone 5-4 SU vs. the Pats but also 6-2-1 ATS including four straight covers. 

This was a Buffalo offense that put up 37, 38, and 47 points in Weeks 2 to 4 before the London trip. It could be wet and windy but that favors Allen more than Mac Jones who is clinging to the starting role. 

The Patriots are weak in the secondary after losing their best coverage corner, Christian Gonzalez. Starting corner Jonathan Jones also exited last week’s contest. To make matters worse, they also have three other depth DBs out or on IR while three other starters on the defense are also on the sidelines. 

Defensively, the Bills have injuries of their own with LB Matt Milano out and a trio of injuries in the secondary including Tre’ Davious White who is out. Luckily for the Bills, the New England offense is unlikely to take advantage of this.

The Patriots could be without Juju Smith-Schuster (concussion) and Hunter Henry (exited Week 6). That isn’t going to help one of the worst-scoring offenses in football. Only the Giants are scoring fewer points per game than New England who is averaging 12 points per game and hasn’t scored more than 17 since Week 1. 

Jones avoided a third-straight in-game benching last week and is anything but a lock to finish this game. There could be 20-mph winds on Sunday and some rain which isn’t going to make Jones a better QB. Of QBs with at least 53 pass attempts per NFL Next Gen Stats, Jones ranks 31st in QB rating despite a neutral CPOE and and quick time to throw. His receivers don’t get any separation as he ranks in the lower fourth in aggressive%. A rushing game that is averaging 3.4 yards per carry (27th) isn’t helping either. 

This -8.5 is a great number to tease down but I also think the Patriots continue to struggle to move the ball (25th in third-down conversion percent) and get handicapped even more by the weather. 

The total has moved from 43.5 to as low as 41 on the back of the forecast. With how poorly the Patriots' offense has been playing and the Bills reset after two cross-the-pond travel games, I’d rather play team totals than the full game. 

Buffalo currently has a team total of 24.5 with some books as high as 25.5 while the Patriots sit at a meager 15.5. My play is on the Buffalo team total over as it might be discounted slightly after a pair of poor performances. I also like Allen as a QB who can still move the ball in poor passing conditions. 

New England comes into this game in the poorest of forms and now has more injuries to deal with. Jones might not even see the third quarter if things go bad early for the home side. 

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