No team has made a bigger statement in the first three weeks of the season than the Buffalo Bills, and they’ll try to move to 4-0 tonight against the Baltimore Ravens.
It doesn’t get much better than a Josh Allen-Lamar Jackson primetime showdown, and I’m picking Buffalo to edge a high-scoring thriller.
Headlined by player props for Allen and Derrick Henry, my Bills vs Ravens predictions and NFL picks break down this marquee September 29 clash.
Bills vs Ravens SNF predictions
- Bills +2.5 (-105 at bet365)
- Over 46 (-110 at bet365)
- Derrick Henry Over 68.5 rushing yards(-115 at bet36)
- Josh Allen anytime touchdown (+110 at bet365)
Bills vs Ravens SNF best bets
Bills +2.5
There was understandable skepticism about the Buffalo Bills' Super Bowl hopes after major roster changes in the offseason, but it’s now crystal clear that the Bills’ championship window remains open as long as Allen is healthy.
And I’m jumping on this rare chance to take Buffalo as an underdog.
The Baltimore Ravens are well-equipped to shorten the game and put together the type of drives that keep Allen on the sidelines, but it’s hard to look past Baltimore’s leaky pass defense.
The hosts rank dead last in passing yards allowed per game, giving up a whopping 291.7 through the air across the first three games.
After Gardner Minshew came into M&T Bank Stadium and threw the ball with freedom in Week 2, the prospect of Allen shredding this secondary is very real.
Without a consistent pass rush, I’m not convinced that the Ravens can slow down the visitors’ slick offense, so I’ll gladly take the points.
Over 46
It’s no secret that the SNF star power is largely on the offensive side of the ball (with an honorable mention for Buffalo’s emerging front seven).
Despite the forecast calling for rain at M&T Bank Stadium, I see Allen and Jackson putting on a show.
The Bills are averaging 37 ppg and blew away the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday night, racing into a 34-3 half-time lead.
It’s tough to make a case for the Under when Buffalo is spreading the ball around so effortlessly - 10 receivers caught a pass against Jacksonville.
Meanwhile, Baltimore hung on for a 28-25 victory in Week 3 despite failing to score in the fourth quarter.
The Over is a combined 5-1 for these teams this season, and Allen banished any concerns about his hand injury with a masterclass earlier this week.
Derrick Henry Over 68.5 rushing yards
This has all the makings of a big King Henry game – wet conditions, a short week of prep for the Bills, and a Buffalo defense that’s vulnerable against the run without some of their key tacklers.
Derrick Henry was in beast mode last weekend, rumbling for 151 yards and two touchdowns against the Dallas Cowboys, and I expect another outing with 20+ touches for the veteran running back.
The 68.5 O/U line for his rushing yards feels fairly modest given that he’s eased past that number in his past two games.
The Baltimore game plan should skew towards the run, and Jackson has looked increasingly comfortable taking advantage of their two-headed backfield menace.
As long as the Ravens don’t fall too far behind on the scoreboard, Henry is poised for another busy outing.
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Josh Allen anytime touchdown
With Buffalo’s blistering start to the season, Josh Allen has made himself the early MVP frontrunner - and I see him strengthening that case here.
He did most of the damage with his arm on MNF, tossing four touchdown passes, and that’s the way to attack the Ravens too. But I’m leaning toward the plus odds for Allen to call his own number in the red zone tonight.
He rushed for two scores in Week 1, and conditions might dictate that runs for Allen are the best bet for the Bills when they get inside the 10-yard line.
While Baltimore can hand off to a power back like Henry, James Cook isn’t going to move the pile in the same way. Allen, on the other hand, lives for those short-yardage moments.
Bills vs Ravens odds
Bills vs Ravens game info
| Location: | M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-29-2024 |
| Kickoff: | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
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