Bills vs Steelers Preseason Picks and Predictions: Defense Optional in Pittsburgh

Bettors might actually see something resembling an NFL football game Saturday night as both Mike Tomlin and Sean McDermott will be giving their No.1 offenses the first quarter Saturday night in Pittsburgh where the total sits at a Week 2-high 42 points with the Bills a slight favorite on the NFL odds board. 

With Pittsburgh's offensive starters playing in a second straight game and seeing a longer leash than last week combined with Josh Allen and some competent quarterback depth on both teams, should bettors be looking at the Over that has already seen some money?

Here are my free NFL preseason picks and predictions for Bills vs. Steelers. 

Bills vs Steelers odds

Bills vs Steelers predictions

The Buffalo Bills have moved two points and so has the total as both coaches expect to play their offensive starters for a good chunk of the first half. Mike Tomlin and the Pittsburgh Steelers have also committed to playing their top defensive players in this one but both teams can put up points Saturday night.

The Bills slowed down Anthony Richardson in his NFL preseason debut but also let Sam Ehlinger and Gardner Minshew go 14-for-15 for 144 yards combined as Buffalo does have some issues with defensive depth after adding nobody on defense in the offseason and losing DC Leslie Frazier and middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds.

With Kenny Pickett and the ones expected to get more than the one series they saw last week, Pittsburgh will move the ball Saturday night and it won’t just be in the first half.

Josh Allen and Kenny Pickett are going to go head to head for a good portion of the #Steelers #Bills preseason matchup on Saturday https://t.co/dkAiSGhUOq

— SteelerNation (@SteeIerNation) August 17, 2023

Mason Rudolph put his hat in the ring for the backup job and looked great vs. the Bucs last week going 6-for-7 for 70 yards and a score. This offense also has Mitch Trubisky who has been known to shine in the preseason but saw just two series last week. This competition should bring some offensive results.

Despite the Steelers playing their defensive starters, it won’t be easy for Teryl Austin’s defense as Josh Allen and the Buffalo starters are scheduled to play the entire first quarter. Andy Isabella has popped and James Cook looks like a breakout season waiting to happen. This could look resemble a real NFL game over the first 15 minutes.

Late scoring is also projected. Buffalo has some competent QB play in Matt Barkley and Kyle Allen who saw all the snaps last week and combined to throw for nearly 300 yards and two scores. 

Tomlin and McDermott played their college ball together and that rivalry could spill into Saturday night as neither coach wants to cede the victory. That’s great news for Over bettors who can shop around and still find a 42. This is the highest total on the board and with offensive starters getting a long leash, a competent QB rotation on both sides, and the Bills’ lack of defensive depth, points will come. 

Tyler Bass is also a kicker I trust while the kicker competition in Pittsburgh should hopefully motivate Chris Boswell who will likely get the kicking duties after watching last week. 

Add in some defensive-wearing 85-degree temperatures and it's an Over 42 for me Saturday night.

My best bet: Over 42 (-110 at Caesars) 

Bills vs Steelers spread and Over/Under analysis

The Bills have moved from a 2.5-point road dog to essentially a pick ‘em but with Mike Tomlin running his ones out last week and giving them more snaps Saturday night, the Steelers should have a slight edge in terms of talent vs. talent for 60 minutes.

Buffalo beat the Colts last week outgaining them by over 50 total yards and taking down a decent QB rotation of Anthony Richardson, Gardner Minshew, and Sam Ehlinger. But, it was Richardson’s first taste of an NFL game and he struggled while Matt Barkley picked apart the Colts’ reserves with 172 yards on 14-of-15 passing for two scores.

Tomlin is giving nearly all of his defensive starters the early snaps and it might be more than the ceremonial one series. Also, Cam Heyward, TJ Watt, and Minkah Fitzpatrick are all expected to get reps after watching the last game. 

Last week, this defense held Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask to just seven first-half points. The Tampa offense went punt, punt, TD, downs, INT, and punt in the first half and had just one drive that had over five total plays. 

Sean McDermott said Josh Allen and the ones will get the first quarter for Buffalo which is the big reason for the spread movement but the Pittsburgh starters could get the longer leashes as they got reps last week as well. These are two coaches who know each other well and were teammates in college. This game will be competitive early. 

The Pittsburgh offense and Kenny Pickett looked great last week and will see more than one series Saturday night, per Tomlin. Buffalo is not a deep defensively, didn't add any starters this offseason, and lost their defensive coordinator. The Pittsburgh offense should have the better matchups for the first three quarters until (if) fourth-stringer Tanner Morgan comes in.  

The total moved from 40 to 42 and with Mason Rudolph showing up to take the No.2 job after going 7-for-12 for 132 yards and a score last week, the Over is back in play in Week 2. Although Morgan isn’t pushing the needle, going Pickett, an amped-up Rudolph, and Mitch Trubisky for the majority of the game is a solid rotation that should move the ball for nearly 60 minutes. 

Barkley and Allen led the Buffalo offense to 348 yards last week and combined for nearly 300 in the air. Now that Allen will get the first quarter, it’s very easy to like the Over 42 here which is the highest total of the week. This is one of the most competent QB rotations on both sides and the run that the ones will get will be significant.

Bills vs Steelers betting trend to know

Totals are 11-6-1 to the Over so far in the preseason this year. Find more NFL betting trends for Bills vs. Steelers.

Bills vs Steelers game info

Bills vs Steelers latest injuries

Bills vs Steelers weather

Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.

Pages related to this topic