It’s a Monday nighter in the Music City when the Tennessee Titans host the Buffalo Bills, so you know the crowd in “Smashville” will be well-oiled for the former Oilers.
The Bills are looking to secure their place atop the AFC with a big road win in Nashville while the Titans are trying to not only keep pace in the conference but the AFC South. With a game this big, Monday Night Football betting can’t just be contained to the spread and total.
Here are our favorite NFL props for Bills at Titans on October 18.
Bills vs Titans prop picks
- Henry Over 97.5 rushing yards
- Sanders longest reception Over 22.5 yards
- Tannehill Over 15.5 rushing yards
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bills vs Titans MNF props
Hail to the King
The Titans defense isn’t good enough to wrangle Josh Allen and the Bills attack all on its own. That’s why Tennessee is going to dish out two scoops of Derrick Henry in an attempt to move the chains, grind out yardage, and eat all the clock it can before exposing a shaky stop unit to the top offense in the NFL.
Henry has been a machine to open 2021, leading the NFL in rushing heading into Week 6 while mowing down would-be tacklers for 4.5 yards per carry and an average of 28 attempts per contest. Buffalo has given up just 3.7 yards per run to foes, who have handed off an average of only 21.4 times (fourth-fewest in the NFL) — but that’s more of a reflection of the Bills’ fast starts and opponents’ abandoning the rushing attack while playing catch-up.
Henry has easily cracked the century mark in his last four games and will top the modest total of 97.5 rushing yards in this Week 6 finale. Expect a heavy workload from the King.
PICK: Derrick Henry Over 97.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)
Swing big in case you hit it
Emmanuel Sanders is a home run hitter. The veteran speedster still has plenty of gas in the tank, with an average of almost 17 yards per reception in 2021, and is quickly becoming one of Allen’s top targets.
According to Inside Edge, Sanders has 10 catches of 20-plus yards since Week 15 of last season, which is tied for eighth-most among receivers in that span. He lines up across from a Titans pass defense which has given up 32 passing plays of 20-plus in that same span — most in the NFL — including 20 of those dingers in 2021 along with six receptions for 40 yards or more (third-most) in the opening five games.
Sanders posted a 35-yard TD grab versus Kansas City last week and his Over/Under on longest reception in Week 6 is set at 22.5 yards. We like him to step up and smash another home run that tops this total Monday night.
PICK: Emmanuel Sanders longest reception Over 22.5 yards (-115 at FanDuel)
Run Ryan run!
The Bills bring the heat, topping the NFL with a pressure rate of 28.6 percent and hurrying rival QBs on almost 14 percent of dropbacks.
The Titans will attempt to douse those flames with a steady stream of Derrick Henry, but Ryan Tannehill will find himself running for his life on a few snaps. Tannehill is a sneaky runner who has already scrambled for 130 yards on the ground in 2021 and burned the Bills for 42 yards on four runs when these teams last met back in Week 4 of 2020.
Tannehill has a rushing yards total of just 15.5 yards in Week 6 and has gone Over this number in seven of his last eight regular-season games, including four of five contests this year.
PICK: Ryan Tannehill Over 15.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Season to date: 2-1 +0.85 units (Risking 1 unit per play)
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