No matter what you feel about San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy, it’s safe to say his performance in the NFC Divisional Playoff Game against the Packers last week didn’t change that opinion.
The bottom line is Purdy gutted out a must-win game without stud wideout and offensive dynamo Deebo Samuel, who’s still listed as questionable Sunday against the Detroit Lions.
His Niners are 7.5-point NFL odds favorites in Sunday’s NFC Championship, as San Fran looks to make their eighth Super Bowl trip, and first since 2020 when they lost to the Ravens.
For our purposes, though, I’m sorting through the Brock Purdy odds for the best free NFL picks and predictions, starting with his ability to protect the football.
And if you want more great bets for this matchup, check out our Lions vs. 49ers preview!
Brock Purdy NFC Championship prop picks
- Under 0.5 interceptions
- Under 0.5 interceptions/Over 1.5 TD passes/McCaffrey Over 36.5 receiving yards
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Brock Purdy NFC Championship prop pick
Under 0.5 interceptions (-135)
Whether you want to include last year’s NFC Championship when he left early with an injured elbow or not, Saturday’s 24-21 win over the Packers was Purdy’s fourth straight playoff appearance without throwing an interception.
Some of that might be game-managing — there might not be a better checkdown option than running back Christian McCaffrey — but he’s thrown 102 passes in the playoffs and none have ended up in the hands of the defense.
Purdy had 11 picks during the regular season, but a deeper look and there’s some information worth noting, especially as you’re making a wager:
Four interceptions came in a 49ers loss to the Ravens late in the year, easily his worst game of the season as Frisco got clubbed 33-19.
Purdy also had back-to-back games with two interceptions: He threw two picks in a 22-17 loss to the Vikings in Week 7, replicated in Week 8 in a 31-17 loss to the Bengals.
This is where we have to mention that these were the two games Deebo Samuel missed. Over two years, Purdy has eight TD passes and six interceptions in the five games he hasn’t had Deebo to throw to.
Take out those three games, and Purdy has just three picks over the other 14 (he sat in a meaningless Week 18 game to the Rams).
Detroit finished just outside the Top 10 in interceptions in the regular season, with 16. However, it hasn’t recorded an interception in two playoff games this year.
While the Lions do have nine interceptions in the last 11 games overall, context matters. Six of those takeaways were courtesy of Vikings’ third-string pivot Nick Mullens across two games. They’ve only had three INTs in the other eight.
If Deebo does play, I’m confident Purdy is clean again. If he’s out, there’s no way Kyle Shanahan doesn’t alter the game plan, ensuring a healthy dose of CMC, and limiting chances for Purdy to have to try to play in hero mode.
Prop: Under 0.5 interceptions (-135 at DraftKings) 30% boost available
Brock Purdy NFC Championship same-game parlay
Brock Purdy Under 0.5 interceptions
Brock Purdy Over 1.5 pass TD
Christian McCaffrey Over 36.5 receiving yards
30% boost available
Purdy’s one-TD pass performance against the Packers hasn’t happened a lot of late. In fact, in San Francisco’s last 10 games overall, he’s only had three games where he’s thrown for less than two TDs.
Detroit, meanwhile, has allowed 28 passing touchdowns against, which is the sixth-worst mark in the NFL. Both Baker Mayfield and Matt Stafford have lit them on fire in the playoffs (on the road, no less), but Detroit has been able to outlast them.
Mayfield went for 349 yards passing and three TDs in the Lions’ 31-23 win, while Stafford had two majors to go along with his 367 yards passing. Detroit has allowed at least two TD passes in each of their last five games.
Let’s wrap up this three-legged SGP with Purdy’s ultra-explosive backfield mate in McCaffrey, and his importance in the passing game.
McCaffrey is coming off a seven-catch, 30-yard receiving performance against Green Bay in a game that was practically raining throughout.
The conditions should be better at Levi’s Stadium Sunday, calling for sunny skies with some cloud cover and a temperature of 69 degrees come kickoff.
I think his 36.5 receiving yards total against the Lions is completely attainable, especially with a compromised Deebo.
Look for Shanahan to move his stud back into favorable mismatches, particularly with option routes and screens to let him work in space.
There aren’t a lot of comps to McCaffrey, and the Lions haven’t had to deal with many dominant pass catchers out of the backfield of late.
However, the few they have faced in the last 10 games provide an insight into what CMC should be able to accomplish.
Alvin Kamara had six catches for 58 yards in Detroit’s 33-28 win over the Saints in Week 13.
The Packers, who feature plenty of catch opportunities for their talented running backs, had AJ Dillon pull down three balls for 39 yards in their 29-22 win over the Lions in Week 12.
And Austin Ekeler had four catches for 48 yards for the Chargers, when they lost 41-38 to Motown in Week 10.
Win or lose, I'm banking on a big McCaffrey game.
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