Broncos vs Bills MNF Prop Bets: Diggs Does it Best

Prop bet #1: Big game big arm

Betting on any Josh Allen odds has been a wild ride this season. Issues on the offensive line, lack of weapons outside of Stefon Diggs, and questions around offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey have hurt the once high-powered Buffalo Bills attack.

The team is averaging just 20.2 points per game in their last five outings — in which they’ve gone 2-3 — and Allen has been asked to do more with less at times. Despite their struggles to put the ball in the end zone, Buffalo’s non-Diggs playmakers are starting to step up and should help the Bills franchise quarterback hit the Over on passing yards. 

With Dalton Kincaid playing up to his first-round selection and Khalil Shakir emerging as trusty WR3 to Diggs and Gabe Davis, Allen can exploit this secondary.

This season, Allen has thrown for at least 275 passing yards in three of his last games and the Bills haven’t shied away from throwing early and often, with Allen averaging 36 pass attempts per game. 

The Bills want to throw the rock all over the yard and despite this Broncos defense playing better football in recent weeks under Vance Joseph, it still ranks 32nd in EPA per play and 32nd in EPA per dropback.

Sam Howell, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Fields, and Patrick Mahomes each cleared 275 passing yards against this Broncos secondary and they’re allowing the sixth most passing yards per game in the league with 251.8.

Between Dorsey’s offense being pass happy, the Bills pass catchers starting to find their rhythm, and the struggles of Denver’s defense, Allen is in position for a big night.

Josh Allen prop: Over 274.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Digging Stefon

Even with Kincaid and Shakir stepping up, the Bills' passing attack runs through Diggs, and when Allen is at his best, it usually means his go-to playmaker is cooking defensive backs with his route-running prowess.

The three-time Pro Bowler sat third in receiving yards in the NFL heading into Week 10 with 834 yards while leading the league in receptions with 70. Diggs is averaging 92.7 receiving yards per game this season — second highest in his career — and he's had at least 86 receiving yards in six of nine games. 

In his four seasons in Buffalo, he’s topped 85.5 receiving yards 29 times in 58 games (50%) and has averaged 86.6 receiving yards per game over his time as a Bill. He’s also got an appetizing matchup against this Broncos defense that’s struggled to apply pressure — 17 sacks this season, fourth lowest in the league — which has hung the secondary out to dry.

Denver has three different defenders who have allowed at least 300 yards in coverage this season, and two who have allowed a QB rating of 131 or better when targeted. Joseph’s defense has taken its lumps against Pro Bowl pass catchers in losses this season giving up 157 yards to Tyreek Hill, 124 yards to Travis Kelce, and 131 yards to DJ Moore.

Allen and Diggs should be licking their lips with the opportunities they’ll have for big plays in primetime, and I am too when taking Stefon Diggs odds to go over this total.

Stefon Diggs prop: Over 85.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Fine finds

Sean Payton has been known for plenty of things throughout his impressive coaching career, but two that have been prominent are his ability to always find undrafted free agents that contribute, and his talent for utilizing pass-catching backs.

In New Orleans, he had Darren Sproles and Alvin Kamara, and now it’s Jaleel McLaughlin in Denver, his most recent hidden gem of a rookie. The NCAA’s all-time leading rusher between his time at Notre Dame College and Youngstown State, McLaughlin has quickly carved out a role with the Broncos.

Just 5-foot-8, 187 pounds, McLaughlin’s elusiveness has helped him rip off a few chunk runs this season, but with Javonte Williams looking healthier over the last few games, McLaughlin has taken on more of a satellite back role as Russell Wilson’s pass-catching back. 

Over his last five games, McLaughlin is averaging 2.2 receptions per game and has caught 11 passes in that time despite never playing more than 21 snaps. He’s had at least two receptions in four of his last five games because Payton loves to get him involved in the screen game, and when he’s on the field he’s being utilized — 12 touches in 18 snaps over his last two outings.

Buffalo has allowed 47 receptions to RBs this season — with an average of 5.2 per game — and has only allowed less than three in a game once in nine games. The Bills are also without star linebacker Matt Milano, who’s out for the season, and his running mate Terrel Bernard is questionable with a concussion after being limited all week in practice.

One look at the Jaleel McLaughlin odds and I'm all in on that plus money for him to go Over his reception total.

Jaleel McLaughlin prop: 2+ receptions (+165 at bet365)