The Denver Broncos head to Orchard Park to face the Buffalo Bills in NFL playoff action on Sunday afternoon.
This is the second-biggest spread of the Wild Card round, and my early Broncos vs. Bills predictions are laying the points with the big home favorites.
Here are my NFL picks for the spread and total for their Wild Card showdown on January 12.
Broncos vs Bills predictions
Early spread lean
Bills -9 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
At first glance, this spread might seem too large since the Denver Broncos went an NFL-best 12-5 against the spread during the regular season. That said, the inexperienced Broncos struggled against quality opponents. If you remove their Week 18 rout against Kansas City's backups, the Broncos went 1-7 SU and 3-5 ATS against teams that finished the season .500 or better.
The Broncos led the league in defensive EPA but have looked vulnerable since the start of December. The Chargers scored 34 points with 6.4 yards per play against them in Week 16 before the Bengals torched them for 499 yards and 30 points in Week 17. Even the Browns rolled up 552 yards and 32 points on December 2.
Denver will have a tough time containing a Buffalo Bills attack that led the league in EPA/play before resting MVP favorite Josh Allen in Week 18.
The Bills did show cracks on defense at times, but the Broncos aren't built to take advantage of that. When you look at teams that exposed Buffalo's stop unit during the second half of the season (Miami, Detroit, and the Rams), they all have significantly better weapons than Denver.
The Broncos haven't been able to establish the run and have placed a heavy burden on quarterback Bo Nix. Nix was impressive down the stretch, but we're talking about a rookie QB playing on the road in a playoff game, and he doesn't have much help around him.
The Bills can run up the score and racked up seven double-digit wins during the regular season. They also easily covered as 10-point home faves in the Wild Card round last year and destroyed New England 47-17 in the opening round in 2022.
This line is a little bit puffed up due to books protecting against teasers, but the adjustment from -7.5 to -9 doesn't make a big difference in practical terms. Take Buffalo at anything below -10.
Early Over/Under lean
Over 47 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
A lot can change between now and Sunday as far as weather goes, but early forecasts indicate these offenses won't be impacted much. Temperatures are currently expected to be just below freezing, with a 20% chance of precipitation and winds around 6 mph.
As mentioned above, this highly-efficient Buffalo offense should be able to move the ball. Before the Bills limited Josh Allen to a single snap in Week 18, they had scored 30+ points in nine of their previous 10 games.
That said, the Bills' defense has regressed over the season. Since Week 9 they sit 22nd in the league in defensive EPA and 29th in defensive dropback EPA.
Meanwhile, Nix is a respectable 13th in the league in EPA+CPOE composite since Week 9 and has racked up plenty of yards with a negative game script. I could see him leading Denver to a late touchdown that does little to change the game but helps cash the Over.
The Bills are 9-2-1 O/U in their last 12 games overall. The Over had also cashed in five straight games for Denver until Week 18 when they faced a Chiefs team that rested multiple offensive starters.
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Broncos vs Bills live odds
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