Week 7 kicks off with the banged-up Denver Broncos visiting the even-more shorthanded Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football. The prop markets were slow to fully open, thanks to all the injuries to Cleveland's offense, but we've still found three solid player props with an emphasis on a Denver running back.
We bring you our favorite free prop picks and predictions for Thursday night’s Broncos vs. Browns Week 7 battle.
Broncos vs Browns prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Broncos vs Browns TNF props
Rookie monster
The Denver Broncos used a second-round pick this year on North Carolina running back Javonte Williams, who is coming off a season-high 38 snaps last week and could be featured more on a short week, with veteran Melvin Gordon averaging fewer than nine carries per game over the last three weeks.
Williams leads the league in rushes of 30-plus yards (three) and should be the most explosive skill player on the field (for either team) Thursday night.
The rising rookie is averaging 6.23 yards per carry since Week 4, while adding nine catches for another 51 yards. These numbers include games against the Raiders and Ravens, who both sit in the Top 8 in defensive success rate. We’re expecting 10-12 carries for the rookie — and possibly even more if the weather is a factor.
Williams’ rushing total has dropped a couple of yards after opening at 49.5 and can be had at 47.5 (-110). The rookie has topped this number in three of his last four games and two of those games were in negative game script.
We’re hitting the Over 47.5 rushing yards on Thursday’s most exciting player.
PICK: Javonte Williams Over 47.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Plus money, plus matchup
Stop us if you’ve heard this one: Javonte Williams is a stud. Not only is he averaging 50 yards on the ground per game in limited usage, but his role in the passing game has also evolved: He had just two targets over the first two weeks of the season but since then he has had at least three catches in each game and has caught 12 of his last 13 targets.
Williams saw a season-high 23 snaps in the passing game last week and could have a big game as Cleveland will be without linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, who was Pro Football Focus’ No. 3-overall rated linebacker and No. 4 in coverage.
If the wind is a factor Thursday — projected 20 mph winds — Teddy Bridgewater and the passing game may have to look short and with Williams somehow paying +165 to catch three balls — something he’s done in four straight weeks — we aren’t passing it up.
PICK: Javonte Williams Over 2.5 receptions (+165 at bet365)
Intercepting bridges
Denver quarterback Teddy Bridgewater is officially listed as questionable for Thursday night but all indications are that he'll be a full go. The Denver QB got pummeled last week, taking five sacks and getting hit another 17 times. The pressure forced the less-than-100-percent QB to throw three interceptions, giving him four over the last two games. Cleveland only has two interceptions on the year but averaged nearly one INT per game in 2020.
Bridgewater is paying +100 to throw the ball to the other team Thursday and with the conditions, it might be more probable than 50/50. The forecast is for 20 mph winds with gusts up to 34 mph. The rain may hold off for the game but it's expected to rain all day right up until kickoff.
It will be wet and windy and if the Broncos can’t run against the No. 3 DVOA rush defense, Teddy may be looking at some third and longs. Cleveland also generates the second-highest pressure rate in the NFL and if last week’s three-pick performance is any indication of what the Denver QB is capable of with men in his face, +100 is a solid price.
PICK: Teddy Bridgewater Over 0.5 interceptions (+100 at bet365)
Season to date: 35-46 -10.55 units (Risking to win 1 unit per play)
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