Broncos vs Chargers Predictions, Picks, and Best Bets for NFL Week 16 Thursday Night Football

The Denver Broncos are set to take on the Los Angeles Chargers in a crucial AFC West contest on Thursday Night Football. 

These division rivals are jockeying for position in the playoff pecking order, and my Broncos vs. Chargers predictions expect Denver’s defense to get the best of Justin Herbert. 

I key on that battle with my best NFL picks for December 19. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, with the game airing on Prime Video.

Broncos vs Chargers TNF prediction

Broncos vs Chargers Point Spread

This spread has dropped from a field goal to Los Angeles Chargers -2.5, with the short week really testing the Bolts’ health. Several Los Angeles starters are listed as questionable for Thursday night.

That said, L.A. is a notable jump in competition for the Broncos, given their recent run. The team has taken down some broken teams during a four-game winning streak, and Herbert is the best quarterback this defense has faced in a long time. 

Give me the Chargers short of field goal faves.

Broncos vs Chargers Moneyline

If I’m laying the points, I’m also leaning toward the moneyline. Current odds give L.A. an implied win probability of 60%. Those odds are tempered by last Sunday’s one-sided loss to Tampa Bay. 

However, that was a tough situational spot for Los Angeles. The Chargers were coming off a heartbreaking loss to the rival Chiefs and got caught looking past the Bucs to this short-week matchup with Denver.

The Chargers beat the Broncos in Mile High in Week 6, and I see them getting the win at home to stay in the postseason conversation.

Broncos vs Chargers Total

This total is at 42.5 points, in part due to Denver’s recent scoring surge. The Broncos have put up scores of 29, 31, 38, and 41 during their winning run but have faced porous defenses, and some of that production has come via defensive touchdowns.

Despite last week’s lemon of a game, the Chargers are still a Top 8 defense in both EPA allowed per play and opponent success rate per snap. 

The Broncos are also away from home for just the second time in a month. Denver’s offense sputters in the role of visitor, averaging more than touchdown less than when playing at home (20.3 points per road game).

Rookie QB Bo Nix has been the catalyst for those road woes, watching his completion rate, average yards per attempt, and passer rating sink like a stone in enemy territory.

I’ll lean Under 42.5 points on Thursday.

My best bet
Justin Herbert interception: Yes (+112 at FanDuel)

My analysis
There were 92 days between interceptions from Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert, who witnessed his clean sheet snapped in last week’s loss to Tampa Bay.

Herbert, who only has two interceptions on the season, could be the victim of regression, injury, and a really dangerous defense on Thursday night.

The Broncos pose a serious threat to Herbert & Co., entering Week 16 as the top-rated defense in EPA allowed per dropback — an advanced metric powered by Denver’s 14 interceptions on the year (fourth most).

Vance Joseph’s pass defense utilizes one of the highest rates of man coverage in the NFL, which is a scheme Herbert has trouble against. 

The Bolts’ QB ranks 29th in completion percentage vs. man coverage (49.6%), 12th in accuracy rate against man, and boasts a passer rating of just 85.4 against man-to-man (23rd) compared to 112.6 vs. zone coverage.

Adding fuel to those fires is an aggressive pass rush from the Broncos, who sit second in pressure rate per dropback and sixth in ESPN’s pass rush win rate, which has led to a league-best 49 sacks. 

Herbert’s passing grades hit the skid when under duress, and he’s been sacked 38 times in 2024 — sixth most. Los Angeles will lean hard on him to keep the chains moving Thursday, with the running game losing steam and facing a stingy run-stop unit on defense.

Prepare for plenty of third-and-long situations for L.A., which is a specialty of this Denver defense. The Broncos have forced the most third-down attempts while shutting down foes on 36.63% of those snaps.

Third-down conversions have been spotty for Hebert, whose completion rate slides to 57.1% on third-down passes, and he watches his passer rating dwindle to 86.0 in those key spots (one of his two INTs came on third down). Advanced QB stats rank Hebert 27th in EPA + CPOE on third down among qualified quarterbacks.

If all those numbers aren’t enough to take a swing at a Herbert INT, consider the QB is playing through a high ankle sprain on this short turnaround. His mobility in the pocket will be tested and the Broncos’ pass pressure will force Herbert into hurried throws, putting the ball into bad spots against this ball-hawking secondary.

Player projections for Week 16 have an interception from Herbert as high as its been all season. Those INT forecasts range from 0.4 to 0.7, with my number coming out to 0.53, which should have the “Yes” option priced around -113. However, we’re getting +112 on this INT prop at FanDuel Sportsbooks while other shops sit at EVEN money.

Broncos vs Chargers TNF same-game parlay

Justin Herbert 200+ passing yards

Under 42.5 points

Chargers moneyline

+366 at FanDuel

With the Bolts' ground game struggling and facing a stingy run-stop unit, it’s all on Herbert to make things happen for L.A.

We have two of the top defenses in the land butting heads in what will be a playoff-like atmosphere. The Broncos also struggled to score on the road, averaging more than a touchdown less as visitors.

The Chargers are better than last week’s flop, which saw them succumb to a tough situational spot. I believe they can grind out a win at home in primetime.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Broncos vs Chargers odds

Broncos vs Chargers live odds

Broncos vs Chargers opening odds

• Spread: Denver +3 | Los Angeles -3
• Moneyline: Denver +130 | Los Angeles -155
• Over/Under: Over 42.5 | Under 42.5

Odds courtesy of FanDuel

Broncos vs Chargers spread and Over/Under analysis

• Los Angeles opened as a 3-point favorite and had stayed there for most of the week. However, injury concerns have slimmed L.A. to -2.5 on Wednesday.
• As for the total, it opened at 42.5 points and has remained there as of this writing. Some books have come down to 42 points.
• According to Covers Consensus, 52% of picks are laying the short spread with the home favorite, while 62% of total picks are banking on the Over this Thursday night.

More Thursday Night Football picks from Covers

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Broncos vs Chargers betting trend to know

The Los Angeles Chargers are 7-15 Over/Under in divisional games since 2021 (68% Unders), including a 2-8 O/U count against the AFC West since 2023. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Chargers.

How to watch Broncos vs Chargers

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Broncos vs Chargers latest injuries

Thursday Night Football always puts extra stress on the injury reports with the short week leaving less time to rest and recover. 

The Chargers are feeling that squeeze in Week 16. The Bolts offense will be without TE Will Dissly tonight but activates TE Hayden Hurst from the IR just in time. Guard Zion Johnson is listed as questionable.

As for the Los Angeles defense, the secondary will be without start CB Cam Hart and FS Elijah Molden is listed as doubtful. The front seven could also be without NT Otito Ogbonnia and LB Denzel Perryman.

The Broncos come into Week 16 relatively healthy. Denver’s dominant defense will not have starting corner Riley Moss for tonight and the offense will be without RB2 Jaleel McLaughlin.

Broncos vs Chargers weather

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