NFL Week 16 kicks off on Thursday night with an AFC West battle between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers. Bolts QB Justin Herbert is banged up, and facing an elite Denver defense on a short week will be a tough task.
See how I'm fading the Bolts quarterback and more with my best free NFL picks and Broncos vs. Chargers player props for December 19.
Broncos vs Chargers TNF props
Herbert Under 227.5 passing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Sutton Over 62.5 receiving yards (-113 at FanDuel)- Nix Under 21.5 rushing yards (-113 at FanDuel)
Read full analysis of each pick.
Broncos vs Chargers TNF props
Prop bet #1: Justin Herbert Under 227.5 passing yards
Justin Herbert has been held below 220 passing yards in each of his last four games despite neutral or negative game scripts in each contest. The Los Angeles Chargers QB has averaged just 6.3 yards per attempt over that span and he's currently battling through an ankle injury that limited him in practice.
His supporting cast (besides slot receiver Ladd McConkey) hasn't been much help with the offense really missing running back J.K. Dobbins and the interior line struggling to block. The Chargers' inability to run the ball or gain separation downfield has given defenses the green-light to blitz Herbert.
We saw that last week when the Bucs blitzed a whopping 63% of the time, and Herbert was limited to just 195 passing yards in a 40-17 beatdown. Now Herbert and the Bolts will face a Denver Broncos defense that blitzes at the fifth-highest rate (30.7%) in the NFL and leads the league with 49 sacks.
With the Broncos also leading the league in defensive dropback EPA and ranking third in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.0), fade Herbert on his passing yards.
Prop bet #2: Courtland Sutton Over 62.5 receiving yards
Courtland Sutton was held to just three catches and 32 yards last week but he still saw nine targets, which is a good sign for his production moving forward. Denver's No. 1 WR racked up at least 75 receiving yards in his previous six games, which included a trio of 100-yard performances.
The Chargers have been solid on defense this year but they've looked vulnerable through the air lately with injuries piling up in the secondary.
Through Week 10, the Chargers were second in the league in both defensive dropback EPA and success rate. Since Week 11, they are 25th in defensive dropback success rate and have allowed seven different wide receivers to hit the 75-yard mark.
Prop bet #3: Bo Nix Under 21.5 rushing yards
When these teams previously clashed in Week 6, Denver QB Bo Nix had six carries for 61 yards. That said, Nix has significantly scaled back his rush attempts and yards over the last couple of months.
Through the first seven games of the year, Nix hit the 25-yard mark five times and averaged 6.7 rush attempts and 36.4 rushing yards per game. Over his last seven games he has hit the 25-yard plateau just once while averaging 4.0 carries and 10.3 yards per game on the ground.
The rookie QB has gotten more comfortable in the pocket and his offensive line has been doing a better job in pass protection so he's been forced into fewer scrambling situations. Through his first nine games, Nix had 31 scrambles but he has scrambled just seven times over his last five contests.
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