Sunday’s Week 17 AFC West matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Chargers features two of the seven teams in the AFC with seven or eight wins that are vying for the final spots in the AFC playoff picture.
Can Justin Herbert and the Chargers right the ship following an embarrassing showing against the Texans? Can Drew Lock provide an extra bit of juice to propel the Broncos into the playoff picture?
Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Broncos vs. Chargers on January 2.
Broncos vs Chargers odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
This line opened -6 in favor of the Chargers and has since only moved a half point in both directions despite the slew of Chargers players being placed on the COVID list throughout the week. The line currently sits at LAC -6.5. The total has only moved a half point up to 46 from its 45.5 open once the line became widely available.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Broncos vs Chargers predictions
Predictions made on 12/30/2021 at 2:25 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Broncos vs Chargers game info
• Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA
• Date: Sunday, January 2, 2022
• Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Broncos at Chargers betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Broncos: Ronald Darby CB (Out), Teddy Bridgewater QB (Out), Jerry Jeudy WR (Out), Bradley Chubb DE (Out), Bryce Callahan CB (Out), Bobby Massie T (Out), Tim Patrick WR (Out).
Chargers: Drue Tranquill LB (Out), Jared Cook TE (Out), Chris Harris Jr. DB (Out), Storm Johnson RT (Out), Michael Davis DB (Out), Mike Williams WR (Out), Dustin Hopkins PK (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Broncos are 12-3 to the Under this season, including an 8-1 stretch in their last nine. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Chargers.
Broncos vs Chargers picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Despite the hiring of widely-lauded defensive mastermind Brandon Staley, the Chargers’ defense has been rather uninspiring this year. They rank second-worst in giving up first downs (see below, credit Ben Baldwin), fourth-worst in points allowed per drive, fifth-worst in yards allowed per drive, and seventh-worst in total defensive DVOA (including having the worst run defense DVOA).
Last night's destruction of Washington moved the Dallas defense to No. 1 in hardest defense to earn a first down against.
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 27, 2021
You love to see it pic.twitter.com/9vXS1EoDBd
A Chargers optimist could say that the defensive struggles are tied to key absences in the secondary throughout the season. If we include games players were limited in or injured during on top of games missed, the list includes SS Derwin James (3 games), DB Chris Harris (4 games), and DB Michael Davis (6 games). Sunday won’t provide any kind of reprieve from those misfortunes as both Harris and Davis have landed on the COVID list, as well as starting free safety Nasir Adderley and backup strong safety Alohi Gilman. Gilman’s absence is particularly concerning if Derwin James continues to miss time due to a hamstring injury, but Staley did say he was “hopeful” James could return.
The absences don’t bode well for the hopes of a Chargers cover. In their last seven games, opponents have scored 30 points per game, and the Chargers are 2-5 against the spread during that span. Drew Lock’s insertion into the starting quarterback role in lieu of Teddy Bridgewater’s concussion two weeks ago doesn’t help the Chargers either. Lock is far more willing to push the ball downfield than Bridgewater was, with Lock averaging 10.8 intended air yards per attempt to Teddy’s 8.0.
On the ground, Denver has every ability to grind this game away and keep the ball out of Justin Herbert’s hands. Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams are the only backfield duo in the league to both rush for 750+ yards on the year. To put into perspective how absurd that is, only fourteen other teams have a single running back with 750+ yards. Rookie Williams in particular has been a sensation, leading the league with 31 broken tackles on just 177 rushing attempts. For context, Derrick Henry led the league last year with 34 broken tackles on 378 rushes. For the mathematically challenged, that's three more broken tackles on two hundred more attempts.
Prediction: Broncos +6.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
When it comes to totals, these teams are massive polar opposites. The Broncos are 12-3 to the Under this season, including eight Unders in the last nine games. This is largely the result of two forces: their reliance on the ground game to shorten games and their defense's ability to stop offenses in their tracks. Denver has scored 30+ just twice this season and has scored less than 20 points in eight of their last twelve. On defense, Denver has allowed less than 20 points in ten of their fifteen games this season, including an average of just 15.4 points in their last five games.
On the other hand, the Chargers have gone Over the total in four straight and in five of their last six. Excluding their last matchup with the Broncos, the Chargers have scored an average of 35.2 points in their last five games. On defense, they've allowed 30.6 points per game since Week 5, including 41 points to the Texans last week.
But the fate of this total is largely dependent on what winning football looks like to Denver head coach Vic Fangio. Given the Chargers’ putrid run defense, expect Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams to be fed early and often. The Broncos rank ninth-lowest in early-down (1st and 2nd down) pass rate and that rate is also 5% below expectation when accounting for game context (down, distance, field position, score, etc.). Only two other teams possess larger negative early-down pass rate discrepancies (Titans and 49ers).
Prediction: Under 46.5 (-110)
Best bet
Justin Herbert is undeniably an elite talent at the most valuable position in the game. But sometimes there are just too many factors stacking up against even a player like Herbert for him to drag his team to a win and cover.
His defense has failed him many times this year and three starters are already out with COVID. Special teams also will have a rough week with both their kicker (Dustin Hopkins) and their long-snapper (Matt Overton) also on the COVID list. Their home field "advantage" is among the weakest in the league.
Pick: Broncos +6.5 (-110)
