Broncos vs Chiefs TNF Prop Bets: Pacheco Bruises the Broncos on Prime-Time

Prop bet #1: Punishing Pacheco

With the Kansas City Chiefs whiffing on the Clyde Edwards-Helaire first-round pick in 2020, the emergence of 2022 seventh-rounder Isiah Pacheco continues to be a huge boost for Kansas City.

Pacheco is still just scratching the surface of what he can do in Andy Reid’s offense, and the past few weeks have confirmed that the Chiefs are going to give him every chance to impact games. When he gets loose in the open field, it’s easy to think it’s still Tyreek Hill wearing No. 10 for KC. 

In his last primetime outing, Pacheco ripped through the Jets for 158 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown, and I love the odds for him to have a similar impact in this TNF battle.

While the Pacheco rushing prop looks good in its own right, I prefer the dual-threat flexibility of keeping receiving yards in the mix, especially in a short week against a Denver Broncos defense that’s been torched by running backs this season.

If allowing 350 yards on the ground (and five rushing TDs) against Miami in Week 3 was the low point for the Broncos, it hasn’t gotten much better since then, with the Bears running for 171 yards a week later and the Jets piling up 234 rushing yards in Week 5.

Pacheco has found the end zone in three straight games while averaging 17 carries, and he’s gaining 4.6 yards a carry this year despite managing just 55 yards on 16 totes against the Vikings over the weekend.

The volume should be there for Pacheco to deliver another productive, bruising performance in Week 6.

Isiah Pacheco prop: Over 91.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Javonte Kept In Check

The Broncos will take all the good news they can get at the moment — and Javonte Williams’ likely return on TNF gives Payton more play-calling options in the run game.

However, this Denver backfield suddenly looks a little different from the version that Williams was spearheading before he limped off with an injured quad in Week 4.

Jaleel McLaughlin has made an instant impact, piling up 7.3 yards per run and rushing for 68 yards on nine carries on Sunday. After a few quieter games, Samaje Perine stepped up with four catches for 73 yards against the Jets at the weekend and had six of the team’s 22 carries.

Though the Broncos’ season is teetering on the brink, I see Payton easing Williams back, particularly given the third-year RB has a torn ACL in his not-so-distant past. After giving the offense a timely jolt, it’s unlikely that McLaughlin will just be relegated to a reserve role here.

There’s a backfield committee feel to this Broncos offense heading into Week 6 against a Kansas City run defense that’s thrived since Chris Jones’ return in Week 2. The Chiefs held the Vikings to just 70 yards on the ground on Sunday — and if the Broncos fall behind, the game script tilts towards Perine as the pass-catching back.

Williams’ return is a welcome sight for Denver, but I’m fading his rushing yards prop for TNF with the Broncos positioned to divide up the backfield work. 

Javonte Williams prop: Under 39.5 rushing yards (-105 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Rice, Rice, Baby!

With Travis Kelce hampered by an ankle injury, I’m looking elsewhere for a Chiefs pass-catcher to have a big night — and Rashee Rice stands out as that guy.

With 17 targets over his last three games, Rice has clearly gained the trust of Patrick Mahomes, and he hauled in four of his five targets for 33 yards and a touchdown in Minnesota on Sunday.

I see Kansas City calling Rice’s number again on Thursday night, whether that’s on intermediate routes or deep shots, and his receiving yards Over/Under is a reasonable 30.5 with some sportsbooks.

The rookie receiver has a catch of at least 13 yards in all five games this season and is a big YAC threat, so he may not need a lot of volume to make this prop a winner.

Though the Chiefs have strung together four wins in a row, there’s still a question mark over which receiver is going to consistently step up as the No.2 when defenses lock in on Kelce.

Rice has shown enough flashes to suggest he’s ready to jump into that role. With Kelce likely to be less than 100% here, I feel better about Rice being an X-factor than Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Skyy Moore, or Kadarius Toney. 

Rashee Rice prop: Over 30.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)