The Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons may be a combined 5-10 SU on the year, but both clubs are coming off wins in Week 8 and are each 2-1 SU in their last three games.
The Falcons are nearly a perfect 3-0 under new coach Raheem Morris (Detroit collapse) and have responded well to the coaching change after starting the season 0-5. Denver won on the last play of the game in Week 8 after trailing 24-3 to the Chargers in the third quarter.
Atlanta has held firm on an opening line of -4, shading towards the -4.5. The total opened at 47.5 but has steadily climbed to 50.5 early in the week.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Broncos vs Falcons on November 8 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Denver Broncos at Atlanta Falcons betting preview
Weather
Week 9’s matchup will be played indoors at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Broncos: Courtland Sutton WR (Out), A.J. Bouye (Out), Jake Butt TE (Out), Von Miller LB (Out), Bryce Callahan CB (Out).
Falcons: Calvin Ridley WR (Out), Dante Fowler Jr. DE (Out), Marlon Davidson DT (Out), Takkarist McKinley DE (Out), Jordan Miller DB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games against a team with a losing record. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Falcons.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
If the Falcons had held off the Lions in Week 7, they would be staring down a 3-0 SU record under new head coach Raheem Morris. Instead, they have picked up wins against Carolina in terrible outdoor conditions and a 40-23 beatdown of the Vikings in Week 6. This Falcons team still has the stink of their 0-5 start, but their recent play has many bettors trusting Matt Ryan and Atlanta, especially with Julio Jones healthy and dominating again.
If the Broncos had lost last week after a miracle 21-point second-half comeback, the Falcons would likely be getting a little more attention at this number. This same Broncos team allowed the Jets to score a season-high 28 points four games ago, with the Jets’ next-best output this year being 17 points in Week 1.
Taking bad defenses by more than a field goal is always a worrying thing, but the Atlanta defense has been allowing nearly 70 yards less per game and opponents are converting third downs at just 26 percent (down from 40) in its last three games compared to Weeks 1 through 5.
PREDICTION: Atlanta -4 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Ryan and the Atlanta passing offense are averaging the third-highest yards per pass attempt over the last three weeks at 8.6, and only Kansas City and Minnesota had a higher yards per pass attempt than the Falcons last week. Jones has averaged 123 yards receiving since the coaching change and has been able to do whatever he wants against opposing secondaries.
Denver owns a Top-10 passing defense but could be without top corner AJ Bouye who is in concussion protocol (friendly fire). Last week, LAC QB Justin Herbert tossed three TDs against the Broncos.
Even if WR Calvin Ridley sits (ankle), the Falcons have enough depth to pile up more points, especially if Denver can keep pace, which shouldn’t be a problem against an Atlanta secondary that’s giving up over 300 yards per game this year.
The Falcons may be 1-4 O/U in their last five games, but in games played indoors, they are 4-2 O/U.
PREDICTION: Over 50 (-110)
Team Prop Pick
The Falcons dropped 25 points last week in what heavy rains rendered a slop-fest of a field in Carolina. They also hung 40 points on the Vikings (indoors) three weeks ago as the passing game managed over nine yards per pass in those two victories. This team may not run the ball well (3 ypc last three), but they make it up with one of the league’s best passing attacks.
For a “respected” defense, the Broncos have been giving up big scores to their opponents this year. Four of Denver’s last five opponents have scored over 27 points, including the winless Jets. The only team not to top 27 points against Denver since Week 5 is New England, who might have a worse offense than 95% of NFL teams.
PREDICTION: Atlanta Falcons team total Over 27.5 (-112)
Broncos vs Falcons betting card
- Atlanta -4 (-110)
- Over 50 (-110)
- Atlanta Falcons team total Over 27.5 (-112)
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