This past offseason, expectations were sky high for the Denver Broncos and the Los Angeles Rams. The former made an all-in move acquiring Russell Wilson to help address their long-lasting hole at quarterback. The latter was coming off of a Super Bowl victory and seemingly had a roster full of talent that realistically could threaten to repeat.
But results even from the start of the 2022 season were not promising, and it didn't take long for both teams to be out of playoff contention simply from a simple eye test. Denver was putting up some of the league's worst offensive performances and, and L.A. faced extensive injuries across its offensive line and its very own quarterback acquisition from just two offseasons ago — Matthew Stafford.
But nevertheless and somewhat poetically, these two teams will face off on Christmas in Week 16 and will try to add some final positive notes to their season to hopefully carry into the offseason.
Continue reading for our NFL betting picks and predictions for the Broncos vs. Rams Week 16 matchup on Sunday, December 25th.
Be sure to also check out our favorite Broncos vs. Rams player prop picks!
Broncos vs Rams best odds
Broncos vs Rams picks and predictions
When football is ugly, it's ugly. And that has been exactly the case for the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams this season. Despite the addition of Russell Wilson, the Broncos have engineered the league's lowest-scoring offense not only this season (15.6 ppg) but one of the lowest of the last ten years.
Granted, things have looked much better in the last two weeks after the offense put together a 24-point performance against the Cardinals and a 28-point performance against the Chiefs. Sadly, those outputs rank as Denver's two best scoring efforts this year. And despite those "impressive" marks as of late, Denver still ranks as 28th in DVOA on offense.
Russell Wilson will return to action this week after getting knocked out of the Week 14 game with a concussion, and had likely his best performance on the season before exiting (247 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT). If he can play anywhere close to that, the Broncos certainly stand a good chance on Sunday.
The Rams, despite their record, have still been a respectable defensive unit. They rank 15th overall on defense in DVOA and fifth in run defense in particular. However, without Aaron Donald causing havoc in the middle, they may be just a tad bit more exploitable for Latavius Murray who is also coming off of his best performance of the season — a 130-yard day on 24 attempts (5.4 YPC) and a touchdown.
On the flipside, the Broncos' defense ranks fourth overall according to DVOA and has the top-ranked passing unit in the league. And while Baker Mayfield's heroics were impressive and captivating two weeks ago, he may be in line to have a performance more in line with last week's against the Packers (12-for-21, 111 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 5 sacks).
Quite frankly, this spread needed to be much larger to begin with, which is exactly why it moved with ease from the -1 opener to -3. Denver ranks 15th in net yards per drive (yards per drive gained on offense minus yards per drive allowed on defense) whereas Los Angeles ranks 31st. In net points per drive, the Broncos rank 18th and the Rams rank 30th.
And mind you, the Rams' numbers include performances from when they were much healthier. Any season-long metric is very unlikely to paint an accurate picture in terms of how truly bad the Rams are currently, and following the Broncos' last two performances, you could argue that their metrics likely don't reflect how much better they may be currently.
My best bet: Broncos -3 (-105 at PointsBet)
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Broncos vs Rams spread analysis
The spread opened with the Broncos as one-point favorites but they have since moved to -3 across most books.
Denver is 6-8 against the spread, but has covered in three straight. It is 2-4 ATS on the road, and just 1-5 as favorites (its first cover came last week as a -1.5 favorite against the Cardinals).
Los Angeles is 4-8-2 ATS, the third-worst record this year. It is 3-5 ATS at home, and 0-4 as underdogs of a field goal or less. It has covered the number in two of its last three, but had failed to cover in the five prior to that.
The Rams are unlikely to find much success through the air or on the ground. As mentioned previously, the Broncos' pass defense is one of the league's best and Baker Mayfield ranks second-worst in Football Outsiders DYAR metric (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) among qualifying passers (200+ attempts).
On the ground, things are equally ugly, with the Rams ranking 29th in Football Outsider's adjusted line yards metric, which measures an offensive line's ability to properly create successful runs.
In total, the Rams seriously lack the ability on paper to sustain offensive drives enough to keep this game within a field goal.
Broncos vs Rams Over/Under analysis
The total in this game started at a staggeringly low number of 35.5, the second-lowest opener of Week 16. It has since moved up to 36.5 at most shops.
Given the Broncos' recent "surge" in offensive output, it should come as no surprise that they have played to the Over in the last two weeks. However, prior to that, they had gone eight straight to the Under and are 11-1 to the Under on the season.
The Rams were 5-1 to the Under to start the season, but have since gone an even 4-4 on totals. They have gone 2-1 to the Over on totals below 40.
Denver ranks 29th in average time of possession per drive and 32nd in offensive points per drive. Los Angeles ranks much better in the former (15th), but still ranks just 26th in the latter.
On defense, the Broncos rank fourth in time of possession per drive and are best in the league in points per drive. Los Angeles is much poorer on that side of the ball, allowing the longest drives in terms of the clock but still "only" allowing the 21st most points per drive.
Broncos vs Rams betting trend to know
The Rams are 0-4 against the spread as underdogs of a field goal or less. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Rams.
Broncos vs Rams game info
| Location: | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date: | Sunday, December 25, 2022 |
| Kickoff: | 4:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
| Opening odds: | Rams +1, 35.5 |
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