The Week 7 opener between the Denver Broncos and New Orleans Saints has a total of just 37 points, which is the smallest number on the NFL odds board and currently ties the third-lowest total of the 2024 season.
That makes the “anytime touchdown” market a tough one to tackle when making your NFL picks.
With points at a premium, only two players sit with odds shorter than 2/1 — promising some heftier payouts if someone other than Alvin Kamara or Javante Williams cracks the goal line tonight. I have an idea of who will provide those juicy payouts...
Broncos anytime touchdown pick
Courtland Sutton anytime touchdown
+250 at FanDuel
If you read my Broncos vs. Saints predictions, you know I’m high on Courtland Sutton tonight.
He’s been Bo Nix’s top target — seeing 21 more passes his way than the next Broncos player — and that favoritism rolls over to the red zone as well.
Sutton has drawn nine RZ targets in the first six games (tied for fifth most among WRs), catching three of those balls — two for touchdowns — including a 15-yard connection in the loss to the L.A. Chargers last Sunday.
Sutton isn’t just a threat when inside the 20, however. He’s been able to make big plays for the Broncos, with a reception of at least 20+ yards in five of his six outings.
Nix is getting more comfortable throwing past the sticks and faces a NOLA defense consistently burned by “home run” plays, sitting third in passes of 20+ allowed (20) and tied for the most 40+ passes allowed (five).
Player projections for Sutton range from 0.25 to 0.4 touchdowns on TNF, and considering the shape of the New Orleans Saints offense and the play of Denver’s defense, the Broncos will have added possessions to find their veteran receiver for six points.
Saints anytime touchdown pick
Juwan Johnson anytime touchdown
+440 at FanDuel
The Saints limp into TNF with a laundry list of ailments, most notably their top two receivers being out of action for Week 7.
That doesn’t give rookie QB Spencer Rattler many options, especially with a short week to prep for one of the toughest defenses in the league. Adding to those woes is a makeshift offensive line missing several starters.
With limited targets and the pass pressure closing in, Rattler’s best friend will be tight end Juwan Johnson.
Johnson has stepped up with fellow TE Taysom Hill sidelined with injury, catching 10 of the 11 passes his way for 92 yards over the past three games — including all three balls for 48 yards in Rattler’s first start last Sunday.
The 6-foot-4 Johnson only has one TD this season (coming in Week 1) but faces a Broncos defense with less-talented coverage linebackers (all rate below 60.0 at PFF) and running a high rate of man coverage, which works to Johnson’s strengths.
Denver is giving up the fifth most targets to tight ends, is tied for the fifth most receptions to the position, and has allowed two TE touchdowns this season — one coming to Tampa Bay TE Cade Otton last weekend.
Most player projections for Week 7 have Johnson forecasted for 0.2 touchdowns, but given the matchup on defense and NOLA’s depleted receiving corps, his chance of finding pay dirt is higher.
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