Broncos vs Seahawks MNF Prop Bets: Geno Goes Over his Passing Total

It sure is convenient that Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos open up the season against his former team, the Seattle Seahawks, on Monday Night Football.

But with most bettors uninterested in backing this Seattle offense against a very good Denver defense, is this a good spot to back the Seahawks’ skilled players even with Geno Smith under center?

Find out in our Monday Night Football props for Week 1 action between the Broncos and Seahawks. 

Broncos vs Seahawks prop picks

• Smith Over 205.5 passing yards (-110)
• Lockett Over 48.5 receiving yards (-110)
• Williams Over 58.5 rushing yards (-110)

Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Broncos vs Seahawks MNF props

Showcasing Smith

It will be Geno Smith taking the snaps for the Seahawks in Monday night’s opener and the books are giving us a passing yard total of 205.5, which is as high as 210.5 at others. However, with the game script and a great receiving group, 200 yards could be an easy Over.

Seattle comes in as a 6.5-point home underdog and is being pegged as one of the worst teams this season with a win total of just 5.5. These are all things that can play into high passing volume for Smith in Week 1, as the Seahawks could be chasing points early and often.

Pete Carroll’s love for the run game is a very known situation and is priced into these passing markets. However, Seattle wasn't a run-heavy team when trailing by 14 or fewer points last season, as 13 other teams all had a higher rate of running the rock in that situation. 

Rookie running back Kenneth Walker III is also very doubtful for Monday, meaning Rashaad Penny will be the team’s only true early-down RB with DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer working on the late downs and passing situations. Most importantly, Smith still has DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett who he targeted heavily (54%) over his three starts a season ago.

Smith was surprisingly accurate as a passer last season in limited work. He completed over 68% of his passes, had 4.2 air yards per attempt which were higher than Aaron Rodgers, and his 7.4 yards per attempt was the same as Tom Brady. The revenge factor might push Carroll to show off his new starter as his historical play calling is one of the reasons this total is this low.

Carroll’s hopeful increase in passing will make this an easy Over if they both exist on Monday night. THE BLITZ projects Smith for nearly 245 yards passing.

Geno Smith Prop: Over 205.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Locked in with Lockett

Piggybacking off of the Smith Over passing prop, I think Tyler Lockett has a better chance at topping his prop totals than DK Metcalf. Lockett’s versatility is big here in a tough matchup vs. a good secondary.

Pro Football Focus’ No. 12 receiver from last season ran nearly half his snaps out of the slot while Denver slot corner K’Waun Williams ranked 70th in coverage, per PFF, allowing an 80% completion rate when targeted. Lockett also saw a ton of Smith targets when Carroll did throw the ball with him last season.

In his last start vs. the Jaguars, Smith attempted 24 passes with 13 going Lockett’s way. When Smith started, Lockett had a 30% target share. Metcalf’s receiving totals are as many as 10 yards higher than Lockett’s but I believe that it will be the latter who is the busier of the two receivers with Seattle playing from behind.

Tyler Lockett Prop: Over 48.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)

Javonte's inferno

Entering his second season, very few running backs are as exciting as Denver’s Javonte Williams. He was stuck in a heavy timeshare with Melvin Gordon last season, but with the veteran back one year older and Williams one more year experienced, it’s time for the better back to shine in a game that should feature Denver playing with the lead.

Last season, Williams and Gordon both had 203 carries with Williams getting more work in the passing game. Both backs rushed to similar yards-per-carry marks but it was Williams whose 31 broken tackles led all of football, despite the fewer rushing attempts. Many reports out of the Denver camp are saying this backfield is a 65-35 split in favor of Williams, while others are more pessimistic but still believe Williams will handle the heavier load with a 55-45 share.

This is also a great matchup versus a Seattle defense that lost linebacker Bobby Wagner and three D-linemen. Last year, this defensive unit got shredded through the air and is now without Carlos Dunlap and Rasheem Green. It’s going to be a long season for this defense and a fresh Williams is going to do some damage.

In a game that will likely feature a positive game script, Williams’ rushing total of 58.5 is a number to love the Over on. I would play it up to 64.5 thanks to his big play ability after doubling Gordon’s total of runs of 20-plus yards last season.

Javonte Williams Prop: Over 58.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)

Pages related to this topic