The 4-2 Cleveland Browns limp into Cincinnati to take on divisional rivals the 1-4-1 Bengals. Cleveland is one of the most injured teams in the league as QB Baker Mayfield is dealing with a rib injury and will start as long as he is healthy.
Cleveland opened at -3.5 and the line has bounced around from -3.5 to -3. Cleveland’s practice reports will have an effect on this week’s line but most likely not till Friday’s report. The total has dropped 1.5 points to 50.5 after opening at 52.
Here are our NFL free picks and predictions for Browns vs Bengals for Sunday, October 25 (1:00 p.m. ET).
Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals betting preview
Weather
Temperatures will be in the hi-40s with a light wind and minimal chance of rain. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NFL weather info.
Key Injuries
Browns: Wyatt Teller G (Out), Austin Hooper TE (Out), Nick Chubb RB (Out), Jacob Phillips LB (Out).
Bengals: Joe Mixon RB (Out), John Ross III WR (Out), William Jackson CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 7-0 in Cleveland’s last seven games against teams with a losing record. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Bengals.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Cincinnati Bengals have been a cover machine in their head-to-head matchups against the Browns over the last 10 matchups. The Bengals have not been the favorite for this AFC North showdown since 2017 but are 8-2 ATS dating back to 2015. The Browns have won four of the last five games but the underdog Bengals covered in three.
But the biggest story heading into this Week 7 matchup is Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield and his rib injury. He played through it last week but was ineffective and eventually benched in the second half.
These teams played back in Week 2, when the Bengals and QB Joe Burrow ran 30 more plays than the Browns but gained 80 fewer yards. The Bengals failed to gain much yardage per play but have picked up the slack lately with 6.3 yards per play in Weeks 4 and 6. Cincinnati runs the second-most plays per game in the league and Burrow and the offense are getting better each week.
The Cleveland defense is giving up 33 points per game over its last three contests as injuries to the secondary have allowed opposing QBs to toss for an average of 290 per game since Week 3 — the sixth-highest mark over that time. Without star RB Nick Chubb, TE Austin Hooper and with the league’s highest-rated guard in Wyatt Teller, Cleveland has been struggling to play to its offensive strength in the run game.
PREDICTION: Cincinnati +3.5 (-115)
Over/Under pick
Burrow is completing over 65 percent of his passes and averaging 280 passing yards through his first six games in the NFL. He has topped 300 yards passing three times this year and will get to play catch against a Browns defense that is allowing 300 yards through the air per game on the road. The Browns are allowing the fourth-most passing TDs per game as injuries to their DBs continue to mount.
Both teams are averaging over 66 plays per game over the last three weeks and Cincy and Cleveland are tied for the 10th-highest red-zone TD rate allowed at 67 percent. The Browns have hit the Over in four of their last five games and missed it last week after they scored just seven points against the Steelers’ top-rated defense. They did allow 38 points, however, which was the fourth time this year they have surrendered 30 or more points in a game.
PREDICTION: Over 50.5 (-110)
Team total pick
The Bengals hung 30 points on the Browns in Week 2 in Burrow’s second NFL start and against a healthier Cleveland team. Every opponent, except Washington, has topped 22 points against the Browns this year while the Bengals have also scored more than 22 points in four of their last five games. Last week, Cincinnati nearly knocked off the Colts and their No. 3 DVOA defense and managed to score 27 points.
If Mayfield’s injury flares up during Sunday’s tilt or he struggles again like last week, we could see QB Case Keenum in for another go which would help the Bengals get the ball on offense more.
Staring at a team total of 22.5 isn’t threatening, especially against this soft Cleveland defense that Cincy has already dropped 30 on just a month ago.
PREDICTION: Cincinnati Bengals team total Over 22.5 (-115)
Browns vs Bengals betting card
- Cincinnati +3.5 (-115)
- Over 50.5 (-110)
- Cincinnati Bengals team total Over 22.5 (-115)
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